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2009 NFL AFC Betting Odds & Football Picks

Vernon CroyCorrespondent IAugust 12, 2009

TAMPA, FL - OCTOBER 12: An NFL logo as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers host the Carolina Panthers at Raymond James Stadium on October 12, 2008 in Tampa, Florida.  (Photo by Al Messerschmidt/Getty Images)

Every year, the NFL is full of surprises from top to bottom. Many of the teams you expect to be competitive are awful and many of the teams that no one expected to succeed, do. Therefore, picking anything in the preseason can be difficult. However, if you look for several key factors, you can usually have a good feeling about a team before the first kickoff. Let's look at the 2009 NFL football picks in the AFC and who you should put your money on.

Baltimore Ravens +1200. This seems about right for the Ravens as they're not yet one of the elite teams, but they're pretty good. They lost their defensive coordinator and Bart Scott to the Jets, so the defense might have a bit of a transition period. Joe Flacco is a year older and should be better this year, but will they be able to move the ball consistently?

Buffalo Bills +2200. The Bills are coming off a disappointing season that was a bit up and down. Unfortunately, that's the same story pretty much every season. They made a big splash signing T.O in the off-season, but will he be enough to get the team to the Super Bowl? Probably not. He's managed to implode every team that he's ever been on, so why would this team be any different?

Cincinnati Bengals +4000. The offseason for the Bengals isn't so much about who they picked up, but who they're getting back in the lineup. Carson Palmer will be back under center for the Bengals and they couldn't be happier. Anytime your season relies on the arm of Ryan Fitzpatrick like it did last year, things are not good. Bengals fans are optimistic that the former No. 1 pick can right the ship this season.

Cleveland Browns +3600. What did the Browns do in the offseason to give fans hope that they're going to make it to the Super Bowl? Not much. Yes, they hired "Mangenius," but how did that work out for the last team that did? He shipped off Kellen Winslow which basically only leaves "Stone Hands" Braylon Edwards to catch passes. Things are not looking good in Cleveland.

Denver Broncos +2500. Whatever the textbook definition of the "worst offseason ever" looks like, it can't be far off from what the Broncos pulled off this year. They fired their successful coach, traded away their young Pro Bowl quarterback, angered their Pro Bowl wide receiver, and brought in a "wet behind the ears" coach. Not to mention, they now have Kyle Orton under center. Need I say more?

Houston Texans +1800. The future looks bright in Houston. If they can manage to keep Matt Schaub upright, then they'll be able to do some things this year. They spent a lot of energy fixing the defense this year, so hopefully they got it right.

Indianapolis Colts +650. It seems like every year the Colts trot out a team and they win at least 12 games and make the playoffs. This year will be no different and this is a pretty good value here. To have the Colts at +650, you really can't beat that. Many people think they could go all the way this year.

Jacksonville Jaguars +1800. The Jags are coming off a disappointing year that saw a lot of injury. They shipped out Fred Taylor in the off-season and made MJD their feature back. That should be a good move considering he was one of the most productive backs in the league with limited touches. They'll have a decent year, but they didn't do enough to make the Super Bowl.

Kansas City Chiefs +3300. The Chiefs are coming off the worst season in franchise history, but spirits are high in K.C. They brought in the architect of the Patriots dynasty in Scott Pioli to be their GM. He's made some great moves that include hiring Arizona Cardinals offensive coordinator Todd Haley, and trading for Matt Cassel and Mike Vrabel with one draft pick. They won't make it to the Super Bowl this year, but they'll surprise some people.

Miami Dolphins +2200. Last year was a dream season for the Miami Dolphins. They made the single biggest turnaround in NFL history and made the playoffs. Will they be able to duplicate that success this year? Don't count on it. They won't be able to sneak up on anyone this year and they didn't really do enough in the offseason to make it to the upper echelon. Ted Ginn is still their No. 1 receiver? Seriously?

New England Patriots +250. They are the favorites to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl this year. Not a good value at only +250, so you won't be able to make much betting on them. However, there is a good chance that they're going to go all the way, so you make the call. "The Golden Boy" Brady is back and they're planning on going for another perfect season.

New York Jets +1800. Another one of those middle of the pack teams that probably won't win anything of consequence. They might make the playoffs if they're lucky, but they definitely will not make it to the Super Bowl. Rookie quarterbacks don't have a rich history of going to the "Big Game."

Oakland Raiders +5000. Feel like taking a flier on the team with the worst odds to make the Super Bowl this year? Don't. There's no way that they'll win their division, much less make the Super Bowl. They are the laughingstock of the NFL and they're not going to do anything this year.

Pittsburgh Steelers +450. Not a bad value here at 450. They were obviously good enough to win it last year. The big question is can they get past the Tom Brady-led Patriots? It might be worth betting on them now.

San Diego Chargers +650. According to the odds, the Chargers have a decent shot of making the Super Bowl this year. Don't believe them. Every year they tempt you into thinking they're going to be good. Every year, they lose in the first or second round of the playoffs. Don't think this year will be any different. Save your money.

Tennessee Titans +1000. The Titans might be a sleeper team here. At +1000, the stakes are high enough that you could make some money, but we're not talking about the Raiders either. They've got a decent team that could get hot at the right time. If you're feeling lucky, they might be on the fringe of a Super Bowl contender.

Keep these 2009 NFL football picks in mind when you're picking your Super Bowl teams in the near future. While this isn't an exact science, if you put some time and research in, you'll have a much better chance of winning some money.

Make sure you check out Vernon Croy’s Guaranteed Expert NFL Picks this season.

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