Michigan vs. Michigan State: Preview and Prediction for in-State Showdown

Michigan State just routed Rutgers, and Michigan just hung with No. 6-ranked Wisconsin right before drilling Nebraska—so the Spartans and Wolverines certainly have something to excite and motivate them heading into Sunday’s battle at the Breslin Center in East Lansing.

There’s not much pushing fans, though, as Tom Izzo’s Spartans (14-7, 5-3 Big Ten) and John Beilein’s Wolverines (13-8, 6-3) are nowhere near their best.

Michigan’s been bitten by the injury bug, having just lost Caris LeVert for the season, and remains in search of consistent contributors to make up for the difference. With any luck, Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman and Aubrey Dawkins, a pair of frosh guards, will deliver down the road. They've already shown sparks. 

Meanwhile, Michigan State has been (maybe?) bothered by Twitter.

Go figure.

So what’s it going to be this weekend? Beilein’s scrappy bunch could easily stun Izzo’s crew. Conversely, the Spartans could find a way to bury Michigan.

It’s truly a coin-flip, no-clear-favorite type of game.

Check out Sports in the Mitten podcast's Michigan-Michigan State preview with Graham Couch of the Lansing State Journal and Mike DeCourcy of The Sporting News. 

UPDATE: Beilein held a teleconference Saturday morning. The following tweets are from the discussion, which also included Spike Albrecht. 

A Little Perspective

AL GOLDIS/Associated Press

Beilein took over at Michigan in 2007-2008. Due to his coaching and recruiting, Michigan has won six of the past nine versus Izzo. But it was tough sledding prior to that string of recent success, as the Wolverines claimed just four wins over the Spartans from 1998 to 2010.

 “I just used to like getting buckets on Michigan—go to their Crisler Arena, get my buckets and get up out of there,” said Maurice (Moe) Ager, a program great who helped the Spartans win five of seven meetings from 2002 to 2006.

“They weren’t our toughest competition. We never felt threatened by Michigan—we knew we would beat them every time. Illinois and Wisconsin—yeah, those were the teams. The toughest teams I played against in my whole life.”

Today, Michigan is a threat. Beilein lost his first four versus the Spartans, but he now owns a 6-7 record against them.

MSU Players to Watch

Branden Dawson will probably be the most athletic guy on the floor Sunday. The 6’6”, 225-pound senior forward has hops for days and has been known to swat a shot or two. He’s also the Big Ten’s top rebounder, averaging 10.1 per contest.

Shutting him down will be necessary if Michigan wants to escape the Breslin Center, which is anything but hospitable to visitors—especially those from Ann Arbor.

Travis Trice can score in bunches, as evidenced by his 27-point outburst versus Nebraska, but he’s also one of the best assist men in the country, noted by his 5.5 helpers per game. Along with Dawson, Trice, a 6’0”, 170-pound senior, must set the tone early if the Spartans wish to send Michigan packing with a loss in tow.

Averaging 13.9 points per game, Denzel Valentine is Izzo’s second-leading scorer (behind Trice’s 14) and is versatile and capable enough to convert from anywhere on the floor. He hits nearly 42 percent of his three-point shots.

The 6’5”, 225-pound junior should also be a focal point of Michigan’s defensive plan.

UM Players to Watch

Duane Burleson/Getty Images

Derrick Walton, a 6’0”, 185-pound sophomore point guard, is the driver of Beilein’s bus. Without him, the Wolverines would be in a world of hurt—he’s one of the best rebounding guards in the game and is incredibly dangerous with or without the ball.

Walton makes roughly four trips to the free-throw line per game and converts just a tad more than 83 percent of his attempts. His high motor and knowledge of the game more than compensate for the fact that he’s been slowed down by turf toe for most of the year.

Zak Irvin, of course, is Michigan’s X-factor. The 6’6”, 215-pound guard just gained five inches of vertical this past summer and put on a good deal of muscle. However, the star sophomore is still searching for consistency, as outlined by Beilein during recent media availability.

Beilein added that Irvin would be doing himself a favor by using more head fakes to throw off defenders and get better shots. Doing so would also open lanes to the basket, said the coach.

Irvin’s so-so average of 10.7 points per game doesn’t even come close to doing him justice. Irvin’s a guy who could drop 20 to 25 with a few flicks of the wrist.

Ricky Doyle is blooming into a well-rounded player. Having the 6’9”, 245-pound freshman in the middle will certainly help Michigan combat Michigan State’s tandem of Matt Costello and Gavin Schilling. Doyle averages just three boards per game, but he’s making strides both physically and mentally.

Guards will dictate the tempo, but the battle could be fought—and won—in the paint by either side. In the past, the outcome of Michigan State versus Michigan was easy to predict, just like Ager said. This year, like the past few have been, is much different. It’s not really a “prediction” this time around, just a somewhat educated guess.

Prediction time: Michigan State defends its home court and beats Michigan, 68-58.

Follow Bleacher Report’s Michigan and Michigan State basketball writer Adam Biggers on Twitter @AdamBiggers81

Unless otherwise noted, all quotes and references were obtained firsthand by the writer via press release, press conference, media availability or, in Ager's case, by phone.