Super Bowl Odds 2015: Patriots vs. Seahawks Box-Score Game Predictions

There are many ways to enjoy the Super Bowl. There is of course the game itself—and the 2015 Super Bowl could be a real barnburner with the New England Patriots taking on the Seattle Seahawks—the halftime show, the ridiculous commercials, the opportunity to throw a party on an unofficial holiday and the gambling.

Yes, the Super Bowl is ripe for those looking to accumulate some scratch with a few (or many) well-placed bets. The list of prop bets seems longer than all the texts of the Dead Sea Scrolls, giving one the feeling that if you can dream it, you can bet on it.

For those bettors who love to get into the nitty-gritty details and shy away from the irreverent prop bets regarding national anthem lengths and halftime performer, predicting box-score stats is a fine option.

Plenty of data are available to make educated predictions, and these types of bets allow the statheads to put their knowledge to the test with a wager.    

It can be a bit daunting wading into the morass of box-score prop bets, considering one could conceivably plunk down some cold hard cash on just about any player and the stat columns he is liable to fill on game day.

Here is a look at some of the many statistic-based bets available for Super Bowl 2015, followed by a rundown of some of the tougher propositions to decode.

Bet	Odds	Prediction
Total Passing Yards- Tom Brady	Over/Under 260 1/2	Under
Total Interceptions- Russell Wilson	Over 1.5 (11-4), Under 1.5 (2-7)	Under 1.5
Total Rushing Yards- Russell Wilson	Over/Under 40.5	Over
Total Rushing Yards- Marshawn Lynch	Over/Under 92.5	Over
Total Receiving Yards- Doug Baldwin	54.5	Under
Will Rob Gronkowski score a TD in the game?	Yes 10-17, No 7-5	Yes
Will Jermaine Kearse score a TD in the game?	Yes 9-4, No 5-14	No
Total Receptions- Julian Edelman	Over/Under 6	Under
Total Tackles & Assists- Rob Ninkovich	Over/Under 4.5	Over
Who will have more tackles & assists?	Darrelle Revis (+0.5), Richard Sherman (-0.5)	Revis
Who will have more receptions in the game?	Rob Gronkowski (-2), Brandon LaFell (+2)	Gronk 7 rec., LaFell 3 rec.
Total Points- Steven Hauschka	Over/Under 7.5	Over

Note: Odds courtesy of Odds Shark and updated as of Thursday, Jan. 29 at 7 a.m. ET.

Difficult Box-Score Predictions

Whoever set the over/under for Tom Brady's passing yards at 260.5 deserves a raise. Many of the pertinent statistics suggest this is a true betting toss-up.

Year	Opponent	CMP/ATT	YDS	TD	INT
2001	STL	16/27	145	1	0
2003	CAR	32/48	354	3	1
2004	PHI	23/33	236	2	0
2007	NYG	29/48	266	1	0
2011	NYG	27/41	276	2	1

For a quarterback with such an illustrious reputation, 261 passing yards might seem like child's play. Then again, Brady has hit that total in three of his five Super Bowl appearances.

In the divisional round this year, Brady passed for 367 yards and three touchdowns. In the AFC Championship Game against the Indianapolis Colts, he had just 226 yards through the air (apparently with easy-to-grip deflated footballs, no less), although the Pats weren't doing much passing toward the end of that 45-7 blowout.

Of course, he's squaring off against the vaunted Seahawks defense, which held quarterbacks to 185.6 passing yards per game in the regular season. That doesn't bode well for his production. One player who will be key to Brady's ability to rack up yardage is Rob Gronkowski, the best bet on the team to make plays downfield against this ultra-tough secondary. Seahawks safety Kam Chancellor noted the challenges Gronk poses to their defense.

Steven Senne/Associated Press

"He definitely is a big, physical guy," Chancellor said, via USA Today's Jim Corbett. "It's going to be big on big. That's the go-to guy for them. They definitely want to target him a lot, try to get him the ball—get him in the game. We have to play our defense that is called, be fundamentally sound and play our ball."

Brady's numbers also depend on the flow of the game. If the Pats get behind, naturally he will pass more. If they end up protecting a lead, LeGarrette Blount and Shane Vereen could see plenty of handoffs. This is a simple enough prop bet that could prove to be a huge headache for some.

Even if the Brady-Gronk connection is strong on Super Bowl Sunday and the game is competitive, 260.5 seems just a bit too high against the Legion of Boom. Expect Brady to end up in the 250s and make bettors everywhere throw a fit.

Another tough number to pin down is Russell Wilson's rushing yards total. Considering his borderline-traumatic four-interception performance against the Green Bay Packers in the NFC Championship Game, Wilson could be inclined to pull the ball down and scramble more if he doesn't see a coverage he likes in the Super Bowl.

Indeed, the third-year pro is superb when he does have to pick up yards on the ground; he racked up 849 rushing yards on 118 attempts in 16 games this year.

One might see him as a lock to gain at least 41 yards on the ground and hit the over in this prop bet, but the Seahawks will likely rely on the wrecking ball that is Marshawn Lynch to do most of the ground work. To complicate matters more, Wilson has just 47 total rushing yards throughout these playoffs.

Bleacher Report's Matt Bowen singled out Wilson's rushing ability as a Super Bowl X-factor and noted how the read-option is crucial to both his and Lynch's success on the ground: "As much as we talk about Wilson's playmaking ability off the read-option scheme, the production from Lynch is crucial to this offense. And there will be running lanes for Lynch to exploit when defenses are threatened by Wilson pulling the ball to attack the edge of the formation."

Bowen also noted how the Pats will likely counter the Seahawks' strategy:

"

I would expect the Patriots to use a 'spy' versus Wilson (linebacker Jamie Collins is the best fit in my opinion) in passing situations to limit the quarterback if he steps up to run the ball. And the 'scrape exchange' technique (edge defender plays dive, linebacker scrapes over the top to quarterback) is a proven way to defend the read-option.

"

Belichick will likely be hammering the potency of the Seahawks rushing game in preparation this week, and that includes Wilson. However, enough designed runs and read-options will give Wilson the necessary carries to pick up the requisite number of yards in this prop bet. Don't be surprised either if he busts a big gain early if a nervous, jittery Pats defender makes a bad read.

Matt York/Associated Press

For those who believe no amount of stress can cause an ulcer, go ahead and try to determine which elite cornerback—the Pats' Darrelle Revis or Seattle's Richard Sherman—will end up with more tackles in the Super Bowl.

Their tackle numbers are fairly similar this season, although Sherman holds a slight edge.

Regular Season
Playoffs
Player	G	Tackles	Assisted	Combined
Sherman	16	45	12	57
Revis	16	41	6	47
Player	G	Tackles	Assisted	Combined
Sherman	2	5	2	7
Revis	2	2	0	2

However, the Stanford product could have trouble wrapping up in the Super Bowl after suffering a nasty elbow injury in the NFC Championship Game. ESPN's Ed Werder passed along the extent of the damage and an update on his recovery:

Both players are at the mercy of Brady and Wilson, as it's up to the quarterbacks to challenge the elite corners in the passing game. Neither Sherman nor Revis will likely be afraid to support the run defense in the Super Bowl, but the tackle-breaking exploits of Blount and Lynch make it tough to peg this bet. 

Look for Sherman's elbow to limit his ability to finish off tackles in this game, which will give the slightest of edges to Revis. Of course, one shouldn't be surprised if Revis stays well out of the fray and focuses on shutting down the likes of Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse.

Perhaps it would be more fun, and less aggravating, to wager on interceptions in this game. Box-score predictions can be immensely fun, but some of them come across as strange academic exercises designed to frustrate and take advantage of a looser betting strategy. Diligence is required when playing the stats game, but there is an opportunity for those who are bold enough to make a wager or two.