UFC 183: Silva vs. Diaz Main Card Betting Odds and Predictions
UFC 183 hit Las Vegas this weekend with a big middleweight main event.
Anderson Silva returns to the cage to take on the controversial Nick Diaz. The two charismatic stars are almost guaranteed to put on a show for the crowd, and a victory for Silva will put him in line for another shot at Chris Weidman.
In the co-main event, welterweights Tyron Woodley and Kelvin Gastelum will try and state their case for contendership in the division.
Where is the value at on the main card? That is what I am here to help you locate. The odds for this event are very intriguing. There is most definitely some value on a few underdogs, and perhaps you can see your bankroll add up by hitting on one of them.
Let's break down the main card to give you better insight on what to expect, and how to pad your wallet this weekend.
Jordan Mein (-145) vs. Thiago Alves (+115)
1 of 5
The main card for UFC 183 opens with a well matched welterweight affair. Jordan Mein and Thiago Alves will stand and exchange, and one will fall.
Mein comes in as the slight favorite, and his range will be the ultimate test. If he can keep Alves on the outside, he will pick up the victory. I just don't think he will.
Alves has been inside the cage with better strikers who have that same ability, and he finds ways inside. Most importantly, Alves has vicious leg kicks that can break down his opponent. He will land a couple of flush on Mein and take away his power and grappling.
If you are confident in Mein taking this fight, the odds certainly look good for you to play him, but I like Alves and his odds. I just wouldn't go crazy laying it all on him. Be cautious, but optimistic.
Prediction: Alves, TKO, Round 1
The Play: A small bet on Alves
Thales Leites (-500) vs. Tim Boetsch (+350)
2 of 5
There haven't been many fighters who were cut by the UFC only to return as a legitimate title threat. Leites is one of those stories.
He has looked sensational since returning to the UFC. His striking is much improved, and he has some knockout power to go along with it. And his ground game is still top notch.
His opponent, Boetsch, is a good test. Boetsch has good power and good wrestling. However, he lacks the finesse of Leites.
I like Leites in this fight, but the Boetsch odds are very enticing. Leites has not exactly proven himself to be a Terminator-type fighter who can walk through anything, and if Boetsch pelts him with one of his big fists, it will be lights out.
There is no value on Leites here, but if you feel compelled to take a shot in the dark on Boetsch, it could pay off with yet another late-round TKO.
Prediction: Leites, TKO, Round 2
The Play: Boetsch, but only a small amount
Joe Lauzon (+155) vs. Al Iaquinta (-190)
3 of 5
There is not a fight I love more on this card from a betting perspective than Lauzon vs. Iaquinta.
Lauzon is the vet who can shine like no other on any given night, and Iaquinta is an up-and-down youngster who struggles with submissions. I love Lauzon here — all day.
Lauzon has been susceptible to power shots so this isn't risk free, but no fight in MMA is.
Iaquinta is going to struggle in this fight. Lauzon is simply better, and he performs better on a big stage. The finishes keep coming because Lauzon will lock up a choke in the first round to make Iaquinta tap. This will be a big performance from Lauzon, and he picks up yet another performance bonus at the end of the night.
Prediction: Lauzon, Submission, Round 1
The Play: Lauzon, firmly
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Tyron Woodley (-105) vs. Kelvin Gastelum (-125)
4 of 5
The odds are nearly even for this one, and that means you should just go with whomever you are more comfortable with.
This matchup is very similar to Gastelum's last fight, and that is why I side with the undefeated prospect.
Woodley is a power-punching wrestler just like Jake Ellenberger, and Gastelum looked extremely well prepared for that style in Mexico City. Gastelum is someone to look out for as being a legitimate title contender. I feel all of the top guys in this division would struggle against him. He is a potential superstar waiting to happen.
Also, Woodley is a bit too inconsistent for me to take. If he is on, he can beat anyone in the world, but he is not always on his game.
The first round the two will likely have a feeling-out process. They'll find their range and test each other's grappling. It will be the second round where the pace increases. And Gastelum crushes Woodley inside with a shot to the jaw. A clean KO for the win.
Prediction: Gastelum, KO, Round 2
The Play: Gastelum
Anderson Silva (-450) vs. Nick Diaz (+325)
5 of 5
This fight should just be pure fun, but it may not be all that competitive.
This is a matchup that favors Silva through and through. Diaz doesn't have the wrestling to take him down, and on the feet he is at a big disadvantage. Silva is the better fighter.
When push comes to shove, I will still take Silva by TKO. However, when looking at value I love the plus-325 on Diaz.
Silva is nearing 40 and has taken some punishment in his most recent fights. Chael Sonnen rocked him, Silva let Bonnar hit him and Weidman turned off his lights completely. A fighter can only take so many shots before his "chin" goes. We have seen this recently with Dan Henderson.
Silva loves to back against the fence and allow his opponents to take shots at him. Diaz will oblige, and that is a strength of the former Strikeforce champion. It is very conceivable that he knocks Silva out because the former pound-for-pound king simply can no longer absorb punches. We don't know if that is the case, but at his age it is worth looking at Diaz in this fight.
Expect a Silva win, but if you have some spare change, you may be able to triple up on the dog.
Prediction: Silva, TKO, Round 2
The Play: Take a shot on Diaz
Just-for-Fun Full Card Parlay: Thiago Santos, Ildemar Alcantara, Diego Brandao, Tom Watson, Ian McCall, Derek Brunson, Miesha Tate, Thiago Alves, Thales Leites, Joe Lauzon, Kelvin Gastelum, Anderson Silva
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