Ranking MLB's Top 10 World Series Contenders Heading into February
Hey, look. There's February just around the corner. For Major League Baseball fans, that means the arrival of spring training and that warm, fuzzy feeling of a new season drawing near.
On that note, let's skip eight months ahead and talk about the World Series.
Yeah, I know. Quite the leap. But really not too much of a leap at this point in the offseason. With rosters pretty much complete, you can get a good sense of where the good teams are just from looking at what's on paper.
From there, you can narrow things down to the top World Series contenders. Then you can weigh teams' certainties, faults and potential upside and narrow things down to a list of 10.
So then, let's give that a shot.
10. Toronto Blue Jays
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We begin with a team that's spent its offseason partying like it's 2012 all over again.
The Toronto Blue Jays made two of the biggest splashes of the offseason when they signed do-it-all catcher Russell Martin and traded for do-it-all third baseman Josh Donaldson and one of the more underrated splashes when they traded for left fielder Michael Saunders.
All three should help Toronto defensively, but it's how they change the team's offensive outlook that raises the eyebrows. With the three of them in a lineup that already had Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Reyes, something Donaldson said in December rings true.
"You start looking at the capability of this lineup and the potential that it brings," he said, via The Associated Press (h/t ESPN). "I'm going to venture to say there's probably not going to be another lineup as potent as this in major league baseball."
But what you're probably wondering is whether the Blue Jays will be able to pitch well enough. To that end, it's a given that they'll at least get innings out of Mark Buehrle and R.A. Dickey. And of their intriguing young arms, the Steamer projection system isn't out of line in expecting big things from Marcus Stroman.
The rest of Toronto's rotation could be shaky, however. Then there's the Blue Jays bullpen, which doesn't look much stronger than the unit that posted a 4.09 ERA last season.
The Toronto offense and Martin's catching should keep the team's merely good-enough pitching from hurting it in the regular season, but maybe not in October, if the Blue Jays get there.
9. Detroit Tigers
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We're used to the Detroit Tigers automatically getting labeled as a title contender. But now? Not as much.
With Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello gone and Justin Verlander coming off a bad (like, really bad) year, Detroit's typically strong rotation looks weak. And with Miguel Cabrera slow to heal following ankle surgery, you wonder if things will get even worse after his modest (by his standards) 2014 season.
Nonetheless, Baseball Prospectus and FanGraphs rightfully have the Tigers pegged as the team to beat in the AL Central. That has much to do with how, even despite the question marks, they're still pretty solid.
David Price's presence means the Tigers rotation still has at least one ace. The return of Jose Iglesias and the addition of Anthony Gose should greatly improve their up-the-middle defense. Re-signing Victor Martinez and trading for Yoenis Cespedes means there will be support around Cabrera in the middle of the lineup. And in Nick Castellanos and Shane Greene, the Tigers have two breakout candidates.
And heck, even Detroit's bullpen could be solid in 2015. You know, if Joe Nathan bounces back, Joakim Soria stays healthy and Bruce Rondon recovers from Tommy John surgery to be a fire-balling threat.
Do the Tigers have bust potential? You betcha. But they should once again be a quality team, and they're not without the upside to go deep into October.
8. Pittsburgh Pirates
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It still feels a little weird to peg the Pittsburgh Pirates as a legitimate World Series contender, but it doesn't feel forced.
The Pirates may have lost a big puzzle piece when Martin signed with the Blue Jays, but adding Francisco Cervelli and pairing him with Chris Stewart will ensure that they'll continue enjoying strong pitch framing (see Baseball Prospectus). And benefiting from that will be a sneaky-good pitching staff.
The Pirates began the winter with Gerrit Cole in place before re-signing Francisco Liriano and trading for A.J. Burnett. That's a reunion of a trio that was pretty good down the stretch in 2013, and they'll be backed by three relievers coming off sub-2.00 ERAs: Mark Melancon, Tony Watson and Jared Hughes.
On offense, the Pirates have arguably the National League's best all-around player in Andrew McCutchen. He's flanked by steady presences in Starling Marte and Neil Walker and 2014 breakout star Josh Harrison.
This is not to say there aren't questions. Can Harrison possibly repeat his awesome 2014? Is Gregory Polanco ready for a breakout? Can Pedro Alvarez bounce back? Is there enough depth around the front three in both the Pirates rotation and bullpen?
Still, FanGraphs sees enough to project the Pirates as one of the NL's elites in 2015. And if the answer to those questions proves to be "yes," they're a team that could be really dangerous.
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7. San Francisco Giants
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When you're the defending champs and winners of three out of five World Series, you're pretty much owed a spot in lists like these.
But that's not the only reason the San Francisco Giants are here. They're good. No, really.
Yes, Pablo Sandoval and Mike Morse are gone and have only been replaced by Casey McGehee and Nori Aoki, but they're not the downgrades they might appear to be. They're both solid bat control-style hitters to go with Joe Panik and Angel Pagan, and the Giants lineup looks pretty balanced when you put them next to the more powerful Buster Posey, Hunter Pence and Brandon Belt.
On the mound is Madison Bumgarner, who was last seen rewriting the October record books. And for what the Giants lack in ace-like talent behind him, they make up for in depth. With the re-signing of Jake Peavy, Ryan Vogelsong and Sergio Romo, San Francisco's pitching staff is among the deepest in MLB.
But while the Giants look solid, there are two major concerns regarding their chances of repeating in 2015.
One is that the rise of the San Diego Padres and the improvement of the Los Angeles Dodgers means the competition in the NL West will be tough. The other is the World Series hangover effect, which the Giants felt in 2011 and 2013.
All the same, Baseball Prospectus and FanGraphs both see the Giants as playoff contenders. And knowing what we know about them, they'll know what to do if they make it to October.
6. Los Angeles Angels
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The Los Angeles Angels were baseball's winningest team in 2014, so maybe you're surprised to see them safely below the top of the list.
Well, what can I say? When Albert Pujols, Josh Hamilton, Jered Weaver and C.J. Wilson are due to be a year older and Howie Kendrick has been swapped out for Josh Rutledge, you can't help but have doubts. Baseball Prospectus may disagree, but it's hard to see the Angels as the power of the AL West.
Fortunately, however, there's still plenty to like.
That list obviously begins with reigning American League MVP Mike Trout, for he's the best there is. And he's still surrounded by solid bats, including the underrated Kole Calhoun and what could be a dangerous DH platoon in C.J. Cron and Matt Joyce. Once again, the Angels lineup should be dangerous.
On the mound, news of Garrett Richards' strong recovery from knee surgery is very much welcome. He and Matt Shoemaker project as a dangerous tandem, and Weaver and Wilson should be solid innings-eaters. Also, what was a dominant bullpen in the second half of 2014 is still largely intact.
The Angels are not unlike the Tigers in how they have bust potential thanks to their older, rustier parts. But between the two, they do look like the safer bet to make a run at the World Series.
5. Boston Red Sox
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In most cases, you have to be a real bozo to pick a last-place team as a World Series favorite. But the Boston Red Sox just did the worst-to-first thing in 2013 and have the pieces to do it again in 2015.
It's Boston's offense that stands out the most. Signing Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez gives the Red Sox two more quality hitters to go with David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia and Mike Napoli, and they're surrounded by huge breakout candidates in Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts and Rusney Castillo.
Even if those three don't pan out, the Red Sox will have options. Among their depth choices are Shane Victorino, Daniel Nava, Brock Holt and Allen Craig, who have all been productive players in recent memory. Depth-wise, what the Red Sox have on offense is unparalleled.
Where you might be skeptical is over the Red Sox's pitching, but it's not as iffy as it might look.
Framing masters Christian Vazquez and Ryan Hanigan are going to make Boston's pitchers very happy, and the Red Sox are making worthwhile upside plays on Justin Masterson and Wade Miley. And with this week's acquisition of Robbie Ross, the bullpen should have tons of depth to support Koji Uehara.
Admittedly, Boston's World Series outlook would look a lot better with a No. 1 pitcher in the mix. But as is, the Red Sox have enough to make a run at the AL East title and then go from there.
4. St. Louis Cardinals
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Well, duh. The St. Louis Cardinals have been at least as far as the National League Championship Series in four straight years. Of course they're World Series contenders.
Their status as title favorites does come with some strings attached this year, however.
Matt Holliday and Yadier Molina both took steps back in 2014 and aren't getting any younger. Adam Wainwright is also getting older and is coming off elbow surgery. That and Michael Wacha's injury-marred 2014 make you wonder if the Cardinals could find themselves missing Shelby Miller in 2015.
Fortunately, the Miller trade brought back Jason Heyward, who's a ginormous upgrade over what they had in right field last year. Throw in Matt Carpenter, Jhonny Peralta, breakout candidate Kolten Wong and a new-look first base platoon in Matt Adams and Mark Reynolds, and the Cardinals lineup should be strong.
That helps alleviate the pitching concerns, and they could be much ado about nothing anyway. Wainwright's elbow procedure was minor and Wacha ended 2014 healthy. Even more worthy of optimism is a potentially lethal bullpen trio in Trevor Rosenthal, Carlos Martinez and Jordan Walden.
On paper, the Cardinals look like the NL Central's best. Provided that pans out, well, we know what they can do in October.
3. Seattle Mariners
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The Seattle Mariners won 87 games and fell just short of the postseason in 2014. So in theory, they didn't have to do much this winter to improve their chances of contending in 2015.
And they really haven't, truth be told. But they've done enough.
Even if shiny new toy Nelson Cruz doesn't repeat his .859 OPS and 40 home runs from 2014, he's bound to be a massive upgrade for what was baseball's worst cleanup spot in 2014. Factor in a new right field platoon in Seth Smith and Justin Ruggiano and incumbent stars Robinson Cano and Kyle Seager, and the Mariners offense suddenly looks formidable for a change.
Which is a scary thought, because we already knew they could pitch.
Felix Hernandez and Hishashi Iwakuma are both still around after leading the Mariners to the AL's top ERA in 2014. Next to them are two huge breakout candidates in James Paxton and Taijuan Walker, and backing Seattle's rotation is a bullpen loaded with power arms.
The Mariners probably aren't going to be the best team in baseball at any particular phase of the game, but they're going to be good at all of them. And when you have a team like that with stars as big as theirs, you have a potential postseason juggernaut.
2. Washington Nationals
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We come now to everyone's favorite trendy World Series pick. But even more so than in the last two years, the Washington Nationals really deserve the hype this year.
Just look at their starting pitching staff. Seriously, LOOK AT IT. Leading it is Max Scherzer, and behind him are Jordan Zimmermann, Stephen Strasburg, Doug Fister and Gio Gonzalez. With their combined talent, you can take it from B/R's Anthony Witrado that Washington's rotation has historic potential.
And this will still be the case even if one of them is traded. After all, the next man up is Tanner Roark, who was Scherzer's equal by one measure in 2014.
It's therefore almost unfair that the Nationals also have a heck of a lineup. Adam LaRoche has departed, but Ryan Zimmerman will take his place at first and allow Anthony Rendon to play every day at third. Add in Ian Desmond, Denard Span and hopefully healthy versions of Bryce Harper and Jayson Werth, and you're looking at a truly star-studded unit.
The Nationals aren't perfect, however. They began the offseason with a "meh" bullpen and have downgraded it by swapping out Tyler Clippard for Casey Janssen as Drew Storen's primary setup man. They can survive a weak bullpen in the regular season but could regret not doing more come October.
Nonetheless, the Nationals are unquestionably the team to beat in the NL East. And if they make the postseason, their rotation and lineup will make them a tough matchup for anyone.
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
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It's not often you see an organization go out of its way to break up a 94-win product, but that's what the Los Angeles Dodgers did this winter. First came a new-look front office, and it made a new-look roster.
And guess what? It looks awesome.
As per usual, the Dodgers should be among the best pitching teams in the league. The incomparable Clayton Kershaw is still around, as are Zack Greinke and Hyun-Jin Ryu. Brandon McCarthy and Brett Anderson are the newcomers, and both are worthwhile upside plays.
What could make the Dodgers pitching even better, meanwhile, is the team's new-look defense. With Hanley Ramirez, Matt Kemp and Dee Gordon gone and Jimmy Rollins, Howie Kendrick and Joc Pederson in, ESPN.com's Buster Olney is right to see huge improvement in the cards:
"The difference will be striking; with changes all over the defensive spine of this team, the Dodgers should go from being one of the worst defensive teams to being one of the best, with a group that complements their ballpark and their pitching staff.
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All told, the Dodgers project as a run prevention monster. That's one reason not to worry about their Ramirez-, Kemp- and Gordon-less offense, but here's another: Even with them gone, Yasiel Puig and Adrian Gonzalez will lead a lineup that could include above-average hitters at every position.
Lastly, there's the Dodgers bullpen. There's no point in worrying about Kenley Jansen as long as he has his Rivera-esque cutter. But he should actually have some support in 2015, as the Dodgers are rightfully banking on Joel Peralta and Chris Hatcher collecting on some outstanding good luck.
Thus is what the Dodgers' offseason overhaul has wrought: a team without clear weaknesses and with a straight path to a World Series title.
Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.
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