5 Key Factors Determining If Liverpool Can Reach the Champions League
Liverpool have shown marked improvement in the last few weeks, both in terms of results and performances.
With the season entering the business end, there’s now considerable hope on Merseyside that the Reds can again qualify for the Champions League.
For Brendan Rodgers, it would be a huge personal victory given the flak he and his signings came in for earlier in the season. It would also be emphatic proof to the club’s owners that he is the man to get the club back at Europe’s top table consistently.
Failure to do so—particularly with the sizeable outlays made in the summer in an attempt to plug the gap left by Luis Suarez—may force Fenway Sports Group into action which could spell the end for the Northern Irishman and many of his signings.
These are the five key factors that will determine Liverpool’s final position. They are unranked, as all are capable of making or breaking their season.
Progress of Lazar Markovic and Other New Signings
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Their summer signings served to magnify Liverpool’s problems earlier this season. They spent a total of £113 million, and early on it appeared as though very little of it had been invested wisely.
However, in recent games, they have begun to prove their worth. Adam Lallana began well and has only improved as he has got used to Rodgers’ system. Emre Can has looked a versatile and steadying influence in every position he’s been deployed in.
The biggest improver has been Lazar Markovic, having gone from being maligned and left on the sidelines for multiple games to delivering match-winning performances. If he continues his upward trajectory, he can play a decisive role in the competition for Champions League places.
Strikers and Sturridge’s Return
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Liverpool’s success last season was based on their explosive attack overcompensating for their porous defence—Crystal Palace in 11th conceded fewer.
The Anfield side’s issues earlier this season stemmed from the sticking plaster—in the form of the goals from Luis Suarez and Daniel Sturridge—being ripped from the team, revealing the gaping wound of their inadequate defence.
Mario Balotelli was expected to go some way to replacing Suarez’s goals, but the fact he has yet to score in the league—and wasn’t even included in the squad for the FA Cup tie against Bolton—suggests he is now playing for his Anfield future, provided it isn’t over already.
Any goals from him in the league would be better than his non-existent return so far.
Fabio Borini is another who must improve. He turned down a move away from the club in the summer in the belief that he could force his way into the first team but has failed to impress in the admittedly limited opportunities he has been given.
Without doubt, the biggest factor in the attacking department is Sturridge, whose absence has been arguably more impactful on the team than Suarez’s. There was always the spectre of the Uruguayan being served lengthy bans or leaving entirely to dampen the team’s dependency on him.
With Sturridge, however, there was no reason to expect that the club would have to do without him.
Sturridge is now in full training, and his involvement—or lack of, if his injuries recur—will be critical.
Remaining Fixtures
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So far, the Reds have played 22 games, with a perfect split between home and away fixtures. They have won more games away than they have at Anfield—six to four—but have been tougher to beat at home, losing just twice.
Their remaining home games have the edge as far as matches with immediate rivals for the Champions League spots are concerned. They host West Ham, Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur at Anfield, while they must travel to a resurgent Arsenal and Southampton.
One thing which hasn’t changed with Suarez’s departure is Rodgers’ use of counter-attacks, which explains their trouble breaking down teams at home, and their black or white away results (they have yet to draw).
Solidity is a virtue which the Reds must adopt if they are to survive trips to the Emirates and St Mary’s, as well as a game at Stamford Bridge which could be pivotal in Chelsea’s title pursuit.
Elsewhere, they have a relatively gentle run in. Manchester City aside, much of their time will be occupied playing sides battling relegation. How much resistance they provide will depend on how perilous their situation is.
Their league engagements will be complicated by ongoing involvement in the FA Cup and Europa League—the length of their stay in these competitions may have a decisive bearing on their fortunes in the league.
The Competition
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Rarely in Premier League history have so many teams been in contention for the top four at this stage. The days of the same four clubs qualifying year in, year out seem like a distant memory, and this season there are no fewer than six teams competing for third and fourth.
Southampton and West Ham are the easiest to write off, but the fact they have made it this far suggests they are both capable of going the distance. Saints in particular are beginning to look imperious.
Arsenal have, like Liverpool, found their feet after a tough start, and the return of Theo Walcott could have as big an impact as Sturridge’s comeback for Liverpool.
Holding Their Nerve
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Last season, Liverpool’s title challenge unravelled just as it appeared they would go all the way. A home defeat to Chelsea—which featured the now-infamous slip by Steven Gerrard—was followed by a spectacular collapse against Crystal Palace.
This season, the competition is so fierce for European competition qualification that it’s hard to see it not going down to the wire.
Staying power will be tantamount once again, and Liverpool’s fans must hope the players have learned their lesson from last season.
Gerrard’s impending departure should provide added incentive. Barring a minor miracle, they won’t be winning the league title that he so desperately craves, but a top-four finish would at least send him out on a high.
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