2015 NBA Draft Stock Report: Biggest Risers and Fallers Through Conference Play
Conference play is the first time scouts get to really see what each prospect is made of. Some teams could end up playing three consecutive ranked opponents in a span of only one week.
To no surprise, a couple of 2015 NBA draft prospects who looked like studs early on have suddenly fallen back to earth.
On the other hand, a few guys have actually gotten better as their confidence has risen. One of them just might have moved himself into the top three overall.
D'Angelo Russell, Ohio State, 6'5", PG/SG, Freshman
1 of 10
Stock Report: ↑
D'Angelo Russell has been a machine, averaging 25.8 points and six assists over Ohio State's last four games. A few of them he actually took over and practically won himself.
After dropping a career-high 33 points in a two-point win over Northwestern on Thursday night, he went for 22 points and 10 assists in a strong win over Indiana on Sunday. Russell has flashed it all, from one-on-one scoring and lethal outside shooting to spectacular passes and assists.
He's the most impressive freshman guard since Kyrie Irving. As slick and skilled as Russell is, it's his intangibles—confidence, maturity, killer instinct, leadership—that ultimately enhance his credibility as a prospect.
He has "star" written all over him. Don't be surprised if Russell's name emerges into the top-three conversation, especially with Kentucky's Karl-Anthony Towns' limited minutes and Emmanuel Mudiay sitting out.
Justise Winslow, Duke, 6'6", SF, Freshman
2 of 10
Stock Report: ↓
Justise Winslow has hit the wall about as hard as one can hit it, having made just eight of 24 shots from the floor over his last five games, and that's including a 4-of-7 performance Wednesday night versus Notre Dame. He bottomed out Sunday against St. John's, finishing without a point in 10 minutes.
Winslow appeared to injure his shoulder a few weeks back, so that might have something to do with the slump. But really, his offensive struggles are just a reflection of raw ball skill and tougher competition.
He isn't much of a one-on-one threat in the half court, where Winslow has trouble creating shots. Per Hoop-Math, he's only made four two-point jumpers 20 games into the season. Meanwhile, the spot-up three-ball hasn't fallen either. After a promising start from behind the arc, his long-range efficiency has dipped to 37.3 percent.
There's no doubting Winslow's talent and upside, but offensively it's clear he's a good two or three steps behind Stanley Johnson and Kelly Oubre, two other star freshman wings who'll be vying for top-10 consideration.
Yogi Ferrell, Indiana, 6'0", PG, Junior
3 of 10
Stock Report: ↑
He's been putting up numbers for a couple of years, but it's about time we start taking Yogi Ferrell more seriously as an NBA prospect. He went for 24 points and five assists in a strong win over No. 13 Maryland on Thursday and followed with 26 points Sunday against D'Angelo Russell and Ohio State.
He's practically impossible to contain in space, where he's lightning-fast off the dribble and just as threatening as a shooter (2.3 three-pointers per game, 42.2 percent from downtown). This year, he's done a much better job of picking his spots; Ferrell's assists and field-goal percentage are up, while his turnovers and shot attempts are down.
Though he doesn't quite project as an All-Star point guard or NBA starter, Ferrell's playmaking and shooting stroke could hold value in a spark role off the bench. We've seen smaller guys make it than the 6'0", 178-pound junior.
With a ceiling that nears Phoenix Suns guard Isaiah Thomas', Ferrell could be a sneaky late-first to second-round option for a team seeking backcourt firepower.
Robert Upshaw, Washington, 7'0", C, Sophomore
4 of 10
Stock Report: ↓
Washington basketball has officially dismissed Robert Upshaw, who had previously been booted from Fresno State back in 2013. According to ESPN.com's Jeff Goodman, Upshaw had "failed multiple drugs tests while at both schools."
Cue the red flags. As the country's leading shot-blocker (4.4 per game), chances are he'll still get first-round looks, but not as many. Upshaw will lose suitors who put an emphasis into character evaluation.
Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski reported Upshaw may test his luck in the D-League, just as P.J. Hairston did after North Carolina let him go early last season. Either way, he's going to have a tough time explaining to general managers how he's gotten dismissed from two separate programs—especially this most recent one, given how well he'd been playing.
As an elite rim-protector with a 7'0" NBA frame, a few teams are bound to be willing to overlook Upshaw's troublesome history. But there's no doubt he'll enter the draft process with a caution label and cloud above his head.
Rakeem Christmas, Syracuse, 6'9", PF, Senior
5 of 10
Stock Report: ↑
Rakeem Christmas, who averaged below six points for three straight seasons, has suddenly emerged as one of college basketball's premier post scorers. He's putting up 18.4 points per game and has now gone for at least 20 in four of Syracuse's last five outings.
Nobody in the country has made a bigger year-to-year jump fundamentally.
From back-to-the-basket power moves to shake-and-bake jump hooks with either hand, Christmas has given the Orange a high-percentage go-to option in the half court. On the year, he's been a man among boys in the middle, shooting 59 percent and averaging nine boards and two blocks per game.
He's always had the NBA body and tools—6'9" size, 250-pound frame, powerful athleticism—but the incredible footwork and touch he's added significantly raised the bar. One general manager told ESPN's Chad Ford:
"Age matters in the NBA draft. But size and athleticism matter even more. No one will take him really high, but he's really improved, and at his size and with his physical tools, I think he's worth the risk in the late 20s or 30s.
"
At 23 years old, I'm not sure he's a first-rounder, but he's definitely going to get looks, something that seemed impossible just a season or even a few months ago.
Tyrone Wallace, California, 6'5", PG/SG, Junior
6 of 10
Stock Report: ↓
Since conference play, it's been painful to watch Tyrone Wallace. He's shot a disastrous 29.8 percent over his last seven games on 14.9 field-goal attempts per contest. The fact California has lost six straight makes it worse.
After a promising start shooting the ball, Wallace has officially cooled off, having missed 19 of 21 three-point attempts in January. His 48.8 percent true shooting percentage, per Sports-Reference.com, is a scary statistic, particularly for a guard with a ratio of 3.8 assists to 2.8 turnovers.
Wallace's size, athleticism and playmaking ability fuel some fairly enticing upside, but his skill set and overall shot selection have a long way to go. He'll have a better chance at the first round in 2016.
Terry Rozier, Louisville, 6'1", PG/SG, Sophomore
7 of 10
Stock Report: ↑
It's getting tougher to ignore Terry Rozier, even if there are questions regarding his future NBA role. After finishing with 23 points against Boston College on Wednesday, he's now averaging 20.4 per game over Louisville's last eight.
Rozier is explosive with the ball, particularly when attacking in the open floor, but it's his jumper that's been the driving forcing behind his recent offensive outburst. He's hit 11 of his last 19 three-point attempts and has brought his percentage from deep up to 36.4 on the season.
Without the ability to prove himself as a playmaker or facilitator, given his role as more of a 2-guard for Louisville, teams might hesitate to reach on what looks like a 6'1" scorer. He's no pure facilitator, but his quickness off the dribble can still translate to breakdown penetration and drive-and-kick playmaking. Rozier did rack up six assists against Pittsburgh and five against Boston College.
A strong defender, terrific rebounder and potent offensive weapon, he's starting to give scouts a reason to overlook the concerns over his natural position.
Aaron Harrison, Kentucky, 6'6", SG, Sophomore
8 of 10
Stock Report: ↓
In terms of the 2015 NBA draft conversation, Aaron Harrison's name has become more irrelevant by the week. At this point, I'm not even sure he gets drafted if he chooses to leave after his sophomore season. Over Kentucky's last five games, he's 19-of-50 from the floor with a total of four assists.
Harrison just hasn't been able to tie any of his skill and talent together. He's essentially a shooting specialist (averages 2.6 rebounds, 1.7 assists) who struggles to shoot—79.4 percent of his shots come away from the rim, and he's only hitting 32.4 percent of his three-point attempts.
He's just been too erratic for a fairly one-dimensional scorer. I'm not sure Harrison returns as a junior, though it wouldn't make much sense for him to declare.
Anthony Brown, Stanford, 6'7", SF, Senior
9 of 10
Stock Report: ↑
Anthony Brown is in the zone, having scored at least 18 points in seven straight games on 24-of-46 from downtown.
After breaking out as a shooter last year, Brown has taken accuracy to a whole other level in 2015. He's making 2.3 triples per game at a red-hot 48.4 percent clip. And for what it's worth, his rebounding numbers are also up significantly (7.3 per game from 5.0).
As a fifth-year, 22-year-old senior, his upside is limited. But at 6'7" with fluid athleticism and a jumper you could frame on a postcard, Brown has the skill set, tools and look of a stretch NBA small forward.
The second round is a safer bet, but when all of the flashy names are off the board, his shot-making ability could hold value to a playoff team that is drafting somewhere in the 20s.
Jakob Poeltl, Utah, 7'0", C, Freshman
10 of 10
Stock Report: ↓
Jakob Poeltl was a hot name to start the year, but as Utah's competition and schedule picked up, his production plummeted. It's not entirely surprising, considering he spent last season playing in Austria and arrived at Utah with minimal expectations.
Poeltl runs the floor and finishes dump-offs and pick-and-rolls, but he's just too raw and limited offensively. The last time he scored in double figures was Dec. 3. The fact he's shooting 44.6 percent from the line tells you all you need to know about his touch away from the rim.
One scout talked to Bleacher Report's Jason King regarding his concerns about Poeltl, saying, "He's got a long way to go. He's not a Cole Aldrich, where he's all stiff and mechanical. He's a little bouncier than that. He's just young and learning. I think he's further away than a lot of the other prospects at his position."
Though Poeltl initially seemed like a 2015 sleeper, 2016 is starting to look more realistic.
All stats courtesy of Hoop-Math.com and Sports-Reference.com.
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