Minnesota Vikings: Who Stays and Who Goes in 2015 Free Agency
Minnesota Vikings upper management will have a number of taxing decisions to make when NFL free agency officially begins on March 10. With 14 players from its 2014 roster set to become unrestricted free agents, Minnesota may have a number of new faces on its 53-man roster in 2015.
Generally speaking, free agency has a positive connotation attached to it. It represents an opportunity for teams to upgrade their rosters with an influx of established talent. From a player and team management perspective, however, early March is one of the most stressful times of the year.
For better or worse, the lives of many players will dramatically change in the coming weeks. Impending free agent Christian Ponder, for example, will likely have a new home for the first time in more than four years next season.
In just a few short weeks, Ponder will embrace the unknown with his 2014 Vikings teammates Matt Asiata, Joe Berger, Jasper Brinkley, Dom DeCicco, Vladimir Ducasse, Jerome Felton, Mike Harris, Ross Homan, Josh Kaddu, Tom Johnson, Cullen Loeffler, Josh Samuda and Corey Wootton, per Spotrac.
Felton has already made it clear that he will not return to the Vikings in 2015, according to Chris Tomasson of the Saint Paul Pioneer Press, but the remaining 13 players may still have a future with Minnesota.
Let's take a look at what the future may hold for eight of Minnesota's most important impending free agents.
In order to add a little "unknown" to this article, I have listed the following players in order from best to worst based on their cumulative 2014 Pro Football Focus rating.
DT Tom Johnson
1 of 8
If Minnesota were to only re-sign one player from its 2015 free-agent class, defensive tackle Tom Johnson would arguably be the best choice.
Despite playing in a rotational role for the better part of the 2014 season, Johnson managed to earn a cumulative Pro Football Focus rating of plus-5.2.
He averaged slightly fewer than 28 snaps per game for the Vikings in 2014 and recorded a career-high 6.5 sacks and one forced fumble in 16 games played. While starter Sharrif Floyd finished 2014 with a team-leading plus-22.0 Pro Football Focus rating, Johnson actually outplayed the 23-year-old defensive tackle early in the season.
When the 2015 season begins, Johnson will be 31 years old, which is widely considered "old" by NFL standards. However, he didn't make an NFL roster until he was 27, spending time in both the Arena Football League and Canadian Football League from 2008 to 2010. Johnson still has plenty of tread left on his tires, which means he will be a "young 31-year-old" when the 2015 season is bestowed upon us.
The Vikings lack significant interior defensive line depth behind starters Linval Joseph and Floyd, as only soon-to-be sophomore Shamar Stephen is under contract for the 2015 season.
It is a real possibility that Johnson earned a starter-level contract this season, but the Vikings would be wise to attempt to re-sign the former Southern Mississippi Golden Eagle.
Although Johnson isn't a starter in Minnesota because of the duo who blocks his path, he serves an important role on this team. His 444 snaps rank fifth among nine defensive linemen who played snaps for the Vikings in 2014, and his 6.5 sacks rank second on the team, with only Everson Griffen (12) recording more, according to Pro Football Focus.
Given that he is technically a backup, Johnson is replaceable. However, the Vikings would be hard-pressed to find a more productive interior defensive lineman than the 2014 edition of Johnson.
Verdict: Will return for 2015
C Joe Berger
2 of 8
Productive backups will be a theme throughout this article, and one could argue Joe Berger was the most productive of the bunch.
Considered a center by trade, Berger stepped in as the Vikings starting right guard when both incumbent starter Brandon Fusco and his replacement Vladimir Ducasse were out with injuries. He would ultimately finish the 2014 season with nine starts and a cumulative plus-3.3 Pro Football Focus rating, the second-highest rating among Vikings offensive linemen, behind John Sullivan at plus-5.6).
With Fusco out indefinitely and Minnesota's offensive line already playing poorly, Berger had a difficult task. His job would become even more difficult when his partner on the right side, Phil Loadholt, went down with a season-ending injury during Week 12.
According to Pro Football Focus, Berger allowed three sacks, two quarterback hits and 12 hurries for a combined total of 17 pressures. In addition, he recorded a 96.0 pass-blocking efficiency rating, which ranked second only to Sullivan among Vikings offensive linemen who played at least 200 snaps in 2014. One could argue that Berger was the second-best offensive lineman for the Vikings in 2014, behind only Sullivan.
Berger will be 32 years old when the 2015 season begins, but Minnesota cannot afford to let him walk during free agency. His versatility and consistency are just too valuable to a Vikings team that suffered numerous offensive line injuries in 2014 and lacked consistency in pass protection for nearly the entire season.
Minnesota expects Fusco to be fully recovered by the time next season begins, but 2014 starter Charlie Johnson could be released in the coming weeks, and soon-to-be NFL sophomore David Yankey—according to Mike Zimmer via Tomasson—still needs to beef up before assuming a starting role. Additionally, offensive line backups Ducasse, Samuda and Harris may leave Minnesota during free agency.
These question marks make Berger's versatility and talents even more valuable and, as a result, difficult to replace.
Verdict: Will return for 2015
ILB Jasper Brinkley
3 of 8
Following a brief detour to Arizona for the 2013 season, Jasper Brinkley returned to the team that drafted him in the fifth round back in 2009.
His numbers won't jump off the page, but Brinkley had a solid season. His rating only ranked fourth among Vikings linebackers, but Brinkley finished 2014 with a solid cumulative plus-2.5 Pro Football Focus rating.
While the positive rating is a good sign, Brinkley's total number of snaps played is more important to projecting his future in Minnesota. Despite playing in all 16 games, he recorded a grand total of 471 snaps—he averaged roughly 30 snaps per game for those disinterested in pulling out a calculator—per Pro Football Focus.
To put this snap count total into perspective, outside linebacker Gerald Hodges played 517 snaps despite playing in only 14 games and only being recognized as a starter in seven of these appearances. In addition, Audie Cole, who was listed third on the depth chart for the better part of the 2014 season, played 66 out of a possible 67 snaps in Week 17 compared to Brinkley's underwhelming total of 24, according to Pro Football Focus.
It is possible that Brinkley's low snap total, relative to a player recognized as a defensive starter, is a product of Zimmer's defensive scheme, but it seems far more likely he was removed in certain situations due to his limitations.
For example, Minnesota frequently removed him from the field on third down, a conventional passing down, in favor of Josh Robinson—who consequently totaled 690 snaps, per Pro Football Focus, for the season as the team's third cornerback.
Brinkley is a limited inside linebacker. He is a relatively consistent tackler and provides above-average production against the run, but his coverage skills are essentially nonexistent. Zimmer's scheme requires his inside linebackers to do more than just defend well against the run, and as a result, Brinkley's future in Minnesota is likely in doubt.
Look for the Vikings to let Brinkley walk (again) this offseason and replace him with either another free agent or an early-round draft selection.
Verdict: Will not return for 2015
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QB Christian Ponder
4 of 8
Since being drafted 12th overall by the Vikings, Christian Ponder has experienced plenty of ups and downs in his four-year career. He has spent his entire pro career in Minnesota and has been with the Vikings than any other member of the team's 2015 impending free-agent class, excluding long snapper Cullen Loeffler.
Despite playing in only two games during the 2014 season, Ponder still managed to record a cumulative negative-4.4 Pro Football Focus rating.
He has played in a number of important games for the Vikings since taking over for Donovan McNabb midway through Week 6 of the 2011 season. Although most would attribute Minnesota's 2012 playoff appearance to Adrian Peterson's ridiculous MVP season, Ponder propelled the Vikings into the playoffs with everything on the line against the Green Bay Packers in Week 17. Leading his team against Aaron Rodgers, Ponder threw three touchdown passes and totaled 234 passing yards en route to a 37-34 Vikings win and an unexpected playoff appearance.
For every strong Ponder performance, however, there were multiple optimism-depleting outings—accentuated by a 42-10 Week 5 loss to the Packers, in which he threw two interceptions and finished with a 45.8 quarterback rating. He has slowly fallen out of favor in Minnesota since the beginning of the 2013 season.
Some blame should fall on the shoulders of general manager Rick Spielman for drafting Ponder (way) too early, but selecting him later would not have changed team expectations. If he has played his last snap in Minnesota, fans will remember him for what he didn't accomplish during his tenure as opposed to what he did.
His four-year totals include 38 touchdowns to 36 interceptions, a porous 6.3 yards-per-attempt average and a subpar 75.9 quarterback rating. Most importantly, he failed to play in the lone playoff game he led his team to during his time as the starter, deferring to the even less-capable Joe Webb due to injury.
With Teddy Bridgewater now established as the team's franchise quarterback and veteran Matt Cassel under contract for the 2015 season, the Vikings no longer have any use for Ponder; re-signing him would be a waste of team resources.
Verdict: Will not return for 2015
OT Mike Harris
5 of 8
Following a two-year stint with the San Diego Chargers, Mike Harris joined the Vikings during the 2014 offseason. Per Spotrac, he signed a one-year, $570,000 contract to provide offensive line depth.
The plan may have been for Harris to sit behind Matt Kalil and Loadholt, but as we all know, injuries often define team's seasons. He started five games for the Vikings in 2014, playing mostly right tackle, but he also spent some time at right guard. For his efforts, Pro Football Focus gave him a negative-6.6 cumulative rating.
Harris did not play as poorly as his Pro Football Focus rating suggests. Aside from an awful Week 16 performance against the Miami Dolphins, he provided adequate production in replacement of the injured Loadholt.
His horrendous 92.2 pass-blocking efficiency rating—per Pro Football Focus—is heavily weighed down by his performance against Miami, as five of his 17 total quarterback pressures occurred during this single game, but he was still no better than adequate.
Minnesota does not currently have much offensive tackle depth behind Kalil and Loadholt, but the team can replace Harris with a draft pick or another free-agent option. If the Vikings receive good news about Antonio Richardson's future and feel confident that Loadholt will return at full strength in 2015, Harris' tenure with the Vikings will certainly be over.
While he was dealt a difficult hand, Harris didn't play well enough when called upon to warrant a new contract with the Vikings. He should catch on with a different team, but he likely failed to make the most of his opportunity.
Verdict: Will not return for 2015
RB Matt Asiata
6 of 8
Limited or not, Matt Asiata was productive for the Vikings in 2014. His above-average production in key areas may well force Minnesota to consider re-signing him for next season.
With Peterson suspended, Asiata had an opportunity to be the featured back. After a few lackluster performances, however, offensive coordinator Norv Turner elected to utilize Asiata in combination with rookie Jerick McKinnon. In his career-defining season, Asiata produced results warranting a cumulative negative-10.0 Pro Football Focus rating.
Despite seeing his role reduced, Asiata continued to perform at a high level in certain areas. He proved that he isn't a viable featured back in the NFL, but there is no doubting his pass-blocking ability and nose for the end zone. Until McKinnon went on injured reserve following Week 12, the pair complemented each other's flaws perfectly, providing solid combined production in relief of Peterson.
Asiata finished the 2014 season with 570 rushing yards, 312 receiving yards and 10 total touchdowns, but his 3.5 per-carry average on 164 carries further proves his limitations as a rusher. All nine of his rushing touchdowns came from inside the opponent's 5-yard line, as he scored on 39 percent of his carries from this part of the field.
In addition to his outstanding goal-line statistics, Asiata recorded a 95.8 pass-blocking efficiency rating in 90 pass-blocking snaps, which is a higher rating than all but two starting Minnesota offensive linemen recorded in 2014.
Whether the Vikings bring back Asiata is likely dependent on if they expect Peterson to return for next season. Since the team isn't able to communicate with Peterson until mid-April, it shouldn't come as a shock if Minnesota retains Asiata.
Verdict: Will return for 2015
G Vladimir Ducasse
7 of 8
Vladimir Ducasse entered the 2014 season under the same circumstances as Berger and Harris. His production, however, was the worst of the backup trio.
With 14 total quarterback pressures allowed on 249 pass-blocking snaps, Ducasse earned a negative-14.1 cumulative Pro Football Focus rating in six games started and 13 total appearances. As a result, he did not reclaim his starting role at right guard following a Week 7 injury.
Ducasse had another opportunity to start when Charlie Johnson went down with an injury late in the season, but he failed to produce consistent results once again and would ultimately hand the position back to Johnson for the team's Week 17 matchup.
Again, Minnesota didn't bring in Ducasse to be a stud starter. Due to injuries, however, he had to start on multiple occasions and failed, like Harris, to seize the opportunity to boost his value.
The former second-round draft pick will only be nearing 28 years old when the 2015 season begins, which means he may still have time to meet his draft-day expectations. Despite this and the fact that Minnesota maintains little interior offensive line depth, it would be surprising if Ducasse returns next season.
It appears far more likely that the Vikings will spend multiple draft picks on offensive linemen and bring in one or more established free-agent options. Ducasse just does not appear to fit into Minnesota's future, but his sub-$1 million value—according to Spotrac—may make him the most cost-effective depth option available this offseason.
Verdict: Will not return for 2015
DT Corey Wootton
8 of 8
Corey Wootton was expected to produce results similar to what Johnson recorded this season when Minnesota signed him away from the rival Chicago Bears last offseason, but he definitively failed in this regard.
After he had back-to-back solid years in Chicago, the Vikings signed Wootton to add defensive line depth, despite him being best known for "ending" the career of then-Vikings quarterback Brett Favre back in 2010. Wootton obviously wasn't trying to hurt Favre—he actually expressed remorse about the situation even though he certainly didn't need to—but based on how he performed in 2014, the Vikings may have been better off using that play as an excuse to sign a different interior defensive lineman.
Wootton played 275 defensive snaps and recorded just one sack this past season—against his former team during Week 17—according to Pro Football Focus. As a result, it should come as no surprise that Wootton earned a negative-14.8 rating from Pro Football Focus, ranking third-worst on the team behind only Kalil and Chad Greenway.
Pro Football Focus ratings are a great way to gain a general understanding of how players are performing, but a subjective element to the rating system must be accounted for. As a result, advanced statistics and "the eye test" should be used as well in order to adequately evaluate a given player's level of production.
He failed to pass both of these analysis forms as well. Wootton, who is listed as a defensive tackle, spent most of the 2014 season as a pass-rushing defensive end for the Vikings—a role he had success playing in Chicago. In the place of Brian Robison or Griffen on a relief basis, Wootton frequently looked completely overmatched by his head-to-head opponent.
For example, take the Week 9 contest against the Washington Redskins and right tackle Tom Compton. Wootton couldn't manage to gain an advantage in what should have been a very winnable in-game matchup. He also struggled against Pro Bowl left tackle Trent Williams, which is more acceptable given his dominant status.
Wootton's advanced statistics further support his Pro Football Focus rating and the evaluation I personally determined based on his game tape. According to Pro Football Focus (signature statistics, not player ratings), his play warranted a 4.2 pass-rush efficiency rating. By comparison, Robison, who had a subpar season by both positional and his own personal standards, recorded an 8.0 pass-rush efficiency rating, which still nearly doubled that of Wootton's.
Given that he will only be 28 years old when the 2015 season begins, it's difficult to blame Wootton's regression on his age. Therefore, the best argument for his failure to produce in a Vikings uniform may be that he isn't a good fit for Zimmer's defensive scheme. His size (6'6", 270 lbs) and athleticism suggest otherwise, but as ESPN duo Michael Smith and Jemele Hill would argue, numbers never lie.
This entire analysis ramps up to one simple point: The Vikings shouldn't re-sign Wootton when free agency commences. His production was far below the level of even an average replacement, and Minnesota has adequate depth at defensive end with Scott Crichton and, to a degree, Justin Trattou. The team could also elect to add a defensive end via the draft or free agency as well.
Verdict: Will not return for 2015
Statistics courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference, unless otherwise noted.
For more Vikings analysis, statistics and discussion, find me on Twitter @RobertReidell, and be sure to keep tabs on the new Vikings draft analysis website Minnesota Vikings Draft.
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