Elfrid Payton Remains Full of Mystery and Promise for Orlando Magic
Roughly halfway through Elfrid Payton's rookie season, his strengths and weaknesses look fairly well defined.
The Orlando Magic must be pretty pleased with what they've gotten out of him, especially considering the risk they seemingly took by trading for him last June.
"He continues to want to get better," head coach Jacque Vaughn told Philip Rossman-Reich of OrlandoMagicDaily.com. "You can call it what you want to. I don’t remember a point guard starting every game of the year playing 40 minutes in my time."
He's ranked No. 1 among rookies in assists and tied for first in steals. Payton has held his own at both ends playing heavy minutes for a young team.
However, unlike in college when Payton averaged 19.2 points during his final year at Louisiana-Lafayette, not being able to shoot has really limited him as a scorer in the pros. Of the 157 players who play at least 25 minutes a night, 149 of them score more points per game than his 7.8 on 41.6 percent shooting.
Having no jumper in the arsenal has led Payton to fire 74.1 percent of his shot attempts within 10 feet of the rim, where all the trees await. Unfortunately, Payton was never a particularly impressive finisher to begin with, having shot just 58 percent at the rim, per DraftExpress' Mike Schmitz, against mid-major competition last season.
This year, he's shooting a poor 44.7 percent in the paint, where 291 of his 375 shots have come. Adding a jumper would obviously help solve this issue and allow him to take more balanced shots off two feet before traffic and rim protection. Payton shoots just 32.5 percent on pull-up jump shots and poses very little threat outside 14 feet, where he's made only 18 shots total and four three-pointers in 48 games.
Realistically, having shown little progress as a shooter since 2012, this could prove to be permanent weakness for Payton, which leaves him less room for error elsewhere.
However, while his scoring attack hasn't quite translated, his ability to facilitate looks rather encouraging.
He's averaging 7.2 assists in January and 5.8 on the year. Payton is awfully crafty off the bounce, with the ability to slip through cracks, break down defenses and free up shooters off dribble manipulation. He's at his best in the drive-and-kick game, though. Tobias Harris and Victor Oladipo are each shooting above 47 percent from downtown on shots taken off Payton passes.
There could be room for improvement, too, as Daniel Lewis of Hardwood Paroxysm notes:
"Too many of his passes aren’t ending up in assist opportunities — he’s averaging 10.8 assist opportunities per game. That’s a rate comparable to known distributors Kyrie Irving, Tyreke Evans and Dwyane Wade — scoring guards. The Magic aren’t helping him, as a team they attempt just 19.2 three-point attempts per game, and the only true perimeter shooter is Channing Frye. They’re a team built to drive to the rim right now, and they are making good choices by passing up jumpers for attempts near the rim.
A few recent changes to their lineup may help Payton’s assist numbers though. First, pushing the pace can lead to more attempts near the rim, as the Magic take advantage of Victor Oladipo’s speed and Tobias Harris’ size to find good attempts near the rim. Second, Aaron Gordon is back, having recovered from a foot injury earlier in the season.
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He's also developed a nice two-man game with Nikola Vucevic, who makes 2.1 field goals per game off Payton assists.
Payton ultimately has a strong feel as a passer, whether it's out of pick-and-rolls, off penetration or in the open floor. His head seems to constantly be on a swivel.
His assist numbers have actually been pretty solid for a young point guard on a lottery team. Take a look at how Payton's efficiency and production stack up among point guards (who actually play) drafted over the last two years:
| Dennis Schroder | 14.5 | 17.7 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 0.8 |
| Michael Carter-Williams | 12.5 | 34.2 | 15.3 | 7.1 | 1.5 |
| Trey Burke | 12.3 | 32.0 | 12.7 | 4.8 | 0.9 |
| Elfrid Payton | 12.1 | 27.5 | 7.8 | 5.8 | 1.5 |
| Marcus Smart | 11.6 | 22.2 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 |
| Shane Larkin | 10.3 | 22.7 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 1.3 |
| Zach LaVine | 9.0 | 22.8 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 0.8 |
| Dante Exum | 7.2 | 19.6 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.4 |
At this stage, Payton's value lies within his table-setting skills for teammates and defensive presence at the point, where his length and quickness have the ability to really disrupt opposing ball-handlers.
Given the strengths and weaknesses he's flashed, it's no wonder what initially fueled all the Rajon Rondo comparisons. For what it's worth, Rondo averaged just 6.4 points and 3.8 assists as a rookie and 10.6 points and 5.1 assists while playing 29.9 minutes per game as a sophomore.
There isn't a better role model for Payton to try and follow, considering the success Rondo has had without ever averaging more than 13.7 points or making more than 26 threes in a season.
"I could take pieces from [Rondo's] game from him," Payton told the Orlando Sentinel's Josh Robbins in December. "He's a good player. He's been successful. He's got a ring. But just like other players, you try to take a piece of their game from them."
As good as Payton has occasionally looked for a rookie, we still have questions to ask regarding his development moving forward:
- How much better can Payton get with a broken jumper?
- Where does his ceiling cap out if his shooting stroke never comes around?
- How good can he get if he suddenly does learn how to shoot?
There's all sorts of mystery and uncertainty surrounding Payton's outlook as a point guard, yet there's still plenty of promise at only 20 years old.
Magic fans should be encouraged by Payton's start, just not fully comfortable in the idea Orlando has definitely found its new franchise floor general.
We'll likely need another few years before coming to any definitive conclusions.
Advanced stats via NBA.com/Stats and current through games played on Monday, Jan. 26.
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