Kentucky Basketball: Is There Still Reason to Worry About Wildcats Offense?
The sky must be falling in Lexington because the Kentucky basketball team (19-0, 6-0 in SEC) only scored 58 points against South Carolina and 65 points against Vanderbilt in its last two games.
After all, if there is any aspect of the Wildcats’ play that even appears to be average, it is magnified by the fact that they are a machine with few—if any—flaws. That aspect was the offense the past two contests, which leaves fans and commentators wondering if there is any reason for concern regarding Kentucky’s scoring totals.
Any concern with the offense has to take place within the larger framework of the team, though.
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Kentucky could be well on its way to an undefeated season with a seemingly never-ending conveyor belt of future NBA players both on the court and down the bench. The Wildcats had seven players in the top 51 picks in DraftExpress’ latest 2015 mock draft, which is downright unfair to the rest of the SEC.
It’s not just the fact that there is plenty of NBA talent on the team either.
Kentucky is terrifying on the defensive side of the ball and can overwhelm opponents with length all over the floor and guard Tyler Ulis harassing ball-handlers on the perimeter.
The Wildcats are No. 1 in the country in Ken Pomeroy’s pace-adjusted defensive efficiency rankings, second in points allowed per game and first in blocks per game.
The bottom line is, there is no need to panic about Kentucky’s offense just because it doesn’t stack up to this potentially historically great defense.
Still, it is worth mentioning that there are some reasons for concern on the offensive side of the ball. An undefeated record won’t mean anything in March if the Wildcats are upset in a one-and-done tournament situation.
Alex Forkner of Rivals.com and Joel McNeece of The Calhoun County Journal described what could be a worrisome trend:
Statistically, Kentucky is 40th in the country in points per game and 77th in field-goal percentage.
On an individual level, guard Aaron Harrison is only shooting 32.4 percent from deep and 37.7 percent from the field, while his brother Andrew (guard) is connecting on 32.5 percent of his threes and 32.7 percent of his overall shots.
Those stats don’t exactly scream "national championship."
Like anything, though, the possibility of concern regarding Kentucky’s offense needs to be put into context.
The Wildcats are No. 282 in Pomeroy’s adjusted tempo rankings. Simply put, this means the Wildcats limit the number of possessions for either team in a basketball game with their incredibly slow pace of play, which naturally limits the sheer amount of points scored and hurts the offensive stats.
Kentucky’s overwhelming strength is its defense, so it plays a corresponding style of basketball that elevates the importance of that side of the ball.
Fast teams are going to score more points than slow teams over the course of an entire season, even if the slow teams have enough professional-level talent to inspire actual half-serious conversations about whether they would beat the Philadelphia 76ers.
Nothing tells a better story of how much tempo impacts Kentucky’s offensive statistics than the fact that it comes in at No. 16 in Pomeroy’s pace-adjusted offensive rankings.
When tempo is factored into the conversation, Kentucky suddenly has a top-20 offense in the nation. Any rational fan across the country wouldn’t worry about a top-20 offense.
While tempo certainly matters for some of the raw statistics and helps alleviate the concerns on that end, the bottom line that any discussion about Kentucky’s offense needs to take is that it doesn’t matter as much as it would for another team because of the defense's brilliance.
Unlike shooting percentages, defense doesn’t really have hot-and-cold days and will be there on a nightly basis for the Wildcats all year.
That means Kentucky doesn’t have to play nearly as efficiently on the offensive end to win basketball games because the defense will help cover up any deficiencies.
All that matters in February and especially March is outscoring the team lined up on the other side of the court for 40 minutes, and Kentucky’s defense will help it do just that without lighting up the scoreboard on the offensive end.
Plus, this is still an incredibly young team that is primarily reliant on freshmen and sophomores.
Calipari suggested that he is far from satisfied, via Lindsay Schnell of Sports Illustrated: “By the end of the year, I want each of these kids to be the best version of themselves. We’re nowhere near that yet. But we’re moving in that direction.”
We have already seen an astounding improvement in production from freshman guard Devin Booker in recent games considering he has hit 22 of his last 33 three-point attempts for a 66.7 percent mark. On the season, he leads the team with a 50 percent shooting clip from deep.
It wouldn’t be a surprise if that pattern continued for some of the other youngsters as well as they gradually pick up more experience.
Ultimately, we have an offense that is actually one of the 20 best in the country when tempo is factored into the conversation, anticipated improvement at the individual level with more experience and the nation’s best defense there to save the day in case the offense does have an off night.
It doesn’t sound like there is much to worry about at all.
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