5 Mistakes the Detroit Lions Can't Afford to Make This Offseason

There is a lot riding on this offseason for the Detroit Lions. The brain trust of general manager Martin Mayhew, head coach Jim Caldwell and team president Tom Lewand (pictured above left to right) has many critical decisions to make as it attempts to build upon a successful 2014 playoff campaign. 

The Lions are pointing in the right direction, coming off the first 11-win campaign since George H.W. Bush was president and with much of the key talent locked up. Caldwell's coaching staff is set to return completely intact, building important continuity in a league of constant change.

Yet the potential is certainly present for a fall. While they cannot act out of fear, Mayhew and Company need to show caution as they approach the offseason. 

Here are five potential offseason pratfalls and pitfalls the Lions cannot afford to make. 

All contractual information is from Spotrac. 

5. Overpaying to Keep Expendable Talent

Rick Osentoski/Associated Press

Detroit has several role players hitting free agency, including defensive end George Johnson (pictured). It's important for the Lions to evaluate the return on investment for bringing these players back into the den.

Johnson is a great example. After signing off the free-agent scrapheap in the summer, Johnson emerged as a fine contributor to a potent defensive front. Per Pro Football Focus, No. 93 registered seven sacks, 27 quarterback hurries and 17 tackles while playing just under half of the defensive snaps. 

That's impressive for a guy signed off the street after he was waived by the Minnesota Vikings and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He's certainly a viable member of the highly effective defensive line rotation, and the price was right at $730,000. 

Johnson figures to command more than that in 2015. Given the meek free-agent market at his position, someone is bound to offer the 27-year-old a lot more than he earned last year. With the top names—Greg Hardy, Jason Pierre-Paul, Adrian Clayborn—all holding legitimate flags of various colors, Johnson is set to cash in as an up-and-coming talent at a premium position. 

No doubt the Lions would like him back. But what is the proper price for a player who will sit no higher than third on the depth chart at his position? Is it worth paying Johnson the three-year, $9 million contract the Chicago Bears gave the man Johnson replaced, Willie Young? Or the two-year, $4.4 million the Arizona Cardinals gave Matt Shaughnessy coming off lower production at the same age?

Those deals are too rich for Detroit's blood money. With 2014 fourth-round pick Larry Webster waiting in the wings, Johnson would be a luxury item the Lions simply cannot afford for more than $1 million. 

Other Lions free agents who could be welcomed back but only for a prudent price tag include:

• Left guard Rob Sims, who will need to take a lot less than the $3.78 million he earned in 2014.
• Linebacker Ashlee Palmer, a special teams contributor who lost his defensive role.
• Right tackle Corey Hilliard, coming off two injury-plagued seasons.
• Kellen Moore, the third-string quarterback for the last three years who has never seen active duty.
• Fullback Jed Collins and his 14 touches in 2014.

Overpaying for role players is something the Lions absolutely cannot afford. 

4. Moving Up in the Draft

Duane Burleson/Associated Press

Detroit will pick 23rd in the first round, an unusually low slot for a team that has picked in the top 10 in 10 of the last 13 drafts. 

One of the side effects of picking so highly so frequently is the fans are conditioned to expect immediate impact from the first-round picks. While the results on that expectation are hit-and-miss, the Lions were in a position where those picks had to contribute right away. 

That is not the case this year...and that's a very good thing. This 2015 NFL draft is shaping up as quite weak at the top. Among those opining what was common sentiment during last week's Senior Bowl is Yahoo's Charles Robinson:

"

Two biggest takeaways from Senior Bowl practices: 1. Overall, it's going to be a weak NFL draft. 2. Second tier QBs & beyond? SLIM pickings.

— Charles Robinson (@CharlesRobinson) January 23, 2015"

The Lions are not in position to package picks together to move up, as they've done in the past to select running back Jahvid Best (pictured) or linebacker Kyle Van Noy last year. There are a couple of reasons.

First, the Lions' draft focus is now on the longer future instead of the immediate gratification. Detroit can sit at 23rd in the first and 54th overall in the second round and select the best player on its board. It could be a player who needs a year of seasoning before moving into a starting role, like Pittsburgh offensive tackle T.J. Clemmings or Miami (Ohio) cornerback Quinten Rollins. 

It could also be a player coming off a major injury whose 2015 availability is cloudy. Georgia running back Todd Gurley and Oregon corner Ifo Ekpre-Olomu fall into that category. 

Secondly, the team needs the inexpensive depth the later-round picks provide. One of the reasons the Lions can't afford some of the aforementioned role players is because they've missed on too many third-day picks. Fortunately that tide appears to be turning, as Detroit has scored several useful players in the last couple of draft Saturdays. 

Restocking the bottom of the roster with cheap talent is a critical component to NFL success. It's a step the Lions have been slowly making. Trading away those picks to move up and reach for a specific target in a weak draft class sends Detroit tumbling back down that step. 

3. Not Being Honest in Self-Scouting

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NFL teams do a vigorous self-scouting process during the offseason. The Lions are no exception.

How teams approach the self-evaluation differs from team to team, but all have the same goal—identifying what works and what needs to be fixed.

It's critical for Detroit to correctly ascertain what parts of the team fall into which category. Having an honest, sober assessment of the more questionable issues is imperative.

A good example is the status going forward at linebacker. Starting middle backer Stephen Tulloch is coming off an injury and was clearly losing range before he blew out his knee celebrating a sack. His replacement, Tahir Whitehead, played admirably against the run (Pro Football Focus grade of 5.2) but struggled in all the other aspects of playing linebacker (overall PFF score of 1.8). 

Rookie second-round pick Kyle Van Noy (pictured) missed most of the season with a sports hernia and then looked overmatched once he did start playing. Reserves Ashlee Palmer and Josh Bynes are both free agents. 

Should the Lions continue to rely on Tulloch, who carries a $5.8 million salary-cap hit in 2015? Is Van Noy ready to step up and assume a much more prominent role? Is the team going to trend more toward a hybrid 4-3/3-4 defense, which will require greater depth at linebacker? Is there an available player who makes a better schematic fit than the players currently on the roster?

This is a critical step in building a team. The answers are not always going to be pleasant or easy. It might mean acknowledging a mistake on a high draft pick, or it may reveal inefficiencies or ineffectiveness in the playbook or coaching staff. 

Those tough answers need to be achieved honestly and acted upon accordingly. If the Lions fail to do so, they will miss opportunities to get better. 

2. Failing to Push Matthew Stafford

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Quarterback Matthew Stafford took an important step forward in 2014. Even though it was not his most prolific season statistically, Stafford evolved into a more mature and complete player. 

His evolution is critical to the team's success. It is vital that both the Lions and Stafford himself realize there is still more progress needed if the team is to capture an ever-elusive playoff victory...or more. 

Pat Caputo of the Oakland Press captured Stafford's status nicely: 

"

Stafford did OK this year. He made progress in some of the areas that he had been lacking in the past. In the process, the Lions played it closer to the vest offensively. It was less thrilling in a certain sense, but it did lead to more victories.

There is a tendency for Lions’ fans to get confused about Stafford. He is not a bad QB nor a mediocre one. At minimum, Stafford is a good one.

However, that isn’t the point. He has not advanced to a degree, at least not yet, where he can run with the real big boys at QB.

"

Hopefully Stafford's MVP performance in the Pro Bowl is a springboard to a greater future for both the Lions and their franchise quarterback. He proved in that exhibition he has the talent to produce greater results than he's done so far in Detroit. 

Getting another offseason to master offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi's offense should help. To that end, Lombardi must also recognize what worked well for Stafford and play to those strengths. As stated earlier, honest self-scouting is imperative here. 

That applies to No. 9 himself too. He needs to seize the opportunity to continue his progress. 2014 was a necessary step forward, but there are still more stairs to climb. Stafford needs to push himself to keep ascending and the Lions to help him in that climb in any way they can. 

1. Letting Ndamukong Suh Wear Another Uniform

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All of the prior slides are important mistakes to avoid, but the single biggest mistake the Detroit Lions can make this offseason is letting star defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh depart. 

Suh is one of the best and most important players in the NFL today. Few players make as much of an impact on a defense as the three-time All-Pro. The entire defensive front is constructed around his disruptive ability on the inside. 

Keeping him will not be cheap. Spotrac forecasts his new deal at over $100 million, including $56 million in guaranteed money. That would make Suh the highest-paid defensive player in NFL history. 

Prior negotiations to secure his services long-term failed. Suh and his representation have made it clear they are hellbent on capitalizing on the rare opportunity of a star player in his prime hitting unrestricted free agency. 

As NFL agent Jimmy Halsell points out, Suh will cost the Lions almost $10 million even if he winds up playing for another team:

"

With Suh's current deal voiding his '15 contract yr w/ the #Lions, even if Suh leaves DET, he'll continue to count 9.8M against DETs '15 cap

— Jimmy /J.I./ Halsell (@SalaryCap101) January 16, 2015"

The worst-case financial scenario is the Lions having to use the franchise tag on No. 90. The Associated Press (via SI.com) reports the Lions are prepared to do that, even though it would cost them an absurd $27 million in 2015. 

Doing so would severely cripple the ability to sign other free agents to help bolster the team in other areas. Even so, Suh is worth it. 

Losing Suh would fundamentally and detrimentally impact the Lions' future more than anything else. If keeping him means shaving other parts down to the bone, so be it. Detroit cannot afford to lose such a talented cornerstone of the franchise.