2015 NFL Mock Draft: Initial 1st-Round Projections After Patriots vs. Seahawks
There you have it, folks. With Super Bowl XLIX between the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks in the books, the 2014 NFL season is officially over. All eyes turn to 2015, which unofficially starts with the draft process.
This year's NFL Scouting Combine runs from Feb. 17 through 23 in Indianapolis. That's when the draft will begin to take shape, though individual workouts and pro days will be when teams get their first up-close look at what the very top players look like.
While there will be many things written about the combine in the coming weeks, here's where the first round of the 2015 NFL draft stands coming off the Super Bowl.
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1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State
Trying to figure out the top of the NFL draft, especially at this point, is an exercise in futility. There's little doubt Tampa Bay will take a quarterback, but the question is which one?
For now, Jameis Winston gets the edge because he checks all of the tangible boxes. The 2013 Heisman winner is 6'4" and 235 pounds with arm strength, accuracy and poise in key moments on the field.
Lingering off-field questions will be the big story with Winston, though one scout told Ross Jones of FoxSports.com why the Florida State star is still likely the No. 1 overall pick.
"There's no doubt he's a first-round talent," one AFC scout said. "If you can live with the off-the-field stuff, he's going to be someone's franchise quarterback. Guys with his talent only come into this league so often. He has the tools to be a potential superstar in this league."
Teams will always take a chance on talent, especially if it's at quarterback, even if there is baggage that comes along with it.
2. Tennessee Titans: Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon
Marcus Mariota may have bought some leeway with NFL scouts by admitting he injured his shoulder in the national championship game against Ohio State. He didn't look right most of the game, and now there's an underlying reason besides "he doesn't have NFL skills."
Whatever the verdict on Mariota ends up being, he won't last longer than second in this draft. The 2014 Heisman winner has the most exciting package of skills at quarterback in this class. He could flame out in spectacular fashion, but the ceiling is too great to pass up.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars: Leonard Williams, DT, USC
The Jaguars need a world of help on both sides of the ball, allowing them to simply take the best player available. Gus Bradley comes from a defensive background and knows the importance of an impact player in the trenches as well as anyone.
Leonard Williams is the most versatile defensive lineman in this class, able to play inside with a 4-3 setup or move outside in a 3-4 scheme to rush the passer. He is strong and powerful, excelling in run or pass situations.
4. Oakland Raiders: Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama
The first step in rebuilding is finding a quarterback, which Oakland seems to have done with Derek Carr. The next step is helping the quarterback, which is where Amari Cooper comes in. He's not going to test as well as anyone in last year's receiver class, because not many players in history could, but no one will enter the NFL with more polish as a route-runner or show off better hands.
5. Washington: Randy Gregory, DE/OLB, Nebraska
In a perfect world, Randy Gregory will turn into a modern day Jevon Kearse. That's the very apt comparison one scout told Pete Thamel and Thayer Evans of Sports Illustrated in October:
“He’s an in-between mixture of Jadeveon Clowney and Jevon Kearse,” the scout said. “He’s got Kearse’s freaky athlete ability. Clowney is much stronger, but he’s much tighter than Gregory. Gregory has disgusting bendability much like Barkevious Mingo.”
Gregory is a physical marvel at 6'6" with athleticism coming out of his ears. The Nebraska standout does need to get bigger, as he's slight at 245 pounds and can get overpowered at times against offensive linemen. He's got the best pass-rush moves in the class and should find ways to get to the quarterback right away.
6. New York Jets: Brandon Scherff, OT, Iowa
One thing Todd Bowles had to watch in Arizona was a porous offensive line try to open holes in the running game. If New York is going to succeed offensively next year, it will be on the strength of being able to run the ball.
Brandon Scherff is more of a high-floor, low-ceiling player, the kind of guy who will be a solid starter for a decade. It's not sexy, but sometimes risk is a bad move.
7. Chicago Bears: Landon Collins, S, Alabama
When your defense is as big a problem as Chicago's has been the last two years, the best way to start rebuilding is to find an enforcer to prevent big plays and cover the middle of the field. Landon Collins kills two birds with one stone as a ball-hawking center fielder who will defend the run and make big hits.
8. Atlanta Falcons: Shane Ray, DE, Missouri
Even though Gregory has the highest ceiling of any pass-rusher in this class, Shane Ray is the most NFL-ready edge player.
Lance Zierlein of NFL.com also provided the greatest line in scouting report history in his description of Ray's strengths:
"Explosive athlete in every sense. Has elite power for his size and explodes off the line like a coiled spring. Rushes passer with extreme passion and purpose. Has fast, violent hands with advanced understanding of how to use them. Tough and plays with bad intentions on each snap.
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Playing with bad intentions, in a fair and competitive way, should be the first thing every pass-rusher aspires to. Ray already has it and will be a welcome addition to an Atlanta defense that's been trying to find sacks for years.
9. New York Giants: Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford
Unfortunately for the Giants, there isn't a pass-rusher worth taking at this spot. The news isn't all bad, because Eli Manning needs help up front to maximize whatever talent is still left in him, which is where Andrus Peat comes into play.
Peat, who shined at Stanford, will fit in with Tom Coughlin's desire to play more physical in the trenches. He's strong, agile and able to recover from a bad step quickly. It's time for the Giants to start tweaking their offensive line.
10. St. Louis Rams: DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville
If there's going to be a run of wide receivers in this draft, it will start here. The Rams need a quarterback but would do well to help Sam Bradford—or whoever Jeff Fisher has in mind—with a real wide receiver.
DeVante Parker is going to end up higher on some draft boards than Cooper because he's bigger at 6'2" and lethal with the ball in his hands. His game isn't built on speed, though he certainly isn't lacking in that category, with above-average straight-line movement.
11. Minnesota Vikings: Kevin White, WR, West Virginia
Teddy Bridgewater's rookie season looks like a revelation when viewed in the context of his receivers. Greg Jennings is over the hill, and Cordarrelle Patterson never came close to reaching his preseason hype.
Kevin White isn't as polished as Cooper or Parker, lacking route-running skills when he's asked to make quick cuts. The West Virginia star shines at making big plays, with strong hands and wins in traffic.
12. Cleveland Browns: Devin Funchess, WR, Michigan
Perhaps it's a little too early for Funchess given his lack of polish at wide receiver, the result of previously being a tight end, but the Browns need to think long and hard about what their future is going to look like.
ESPN's Adam Schefter reported that Josh Gordon is subject to a one-year ban for a failed drug test. Since Gordon likely didn't have a future in Cleveland beyond 2015 anyway, a first-round wideout should be the direction in which the franchise goes.
NFL Draft Bites had the Browns taking Funchess later in the round and listed him as a tight end on Twitter:
But with Funchess having the speed to line up outside and poor blocking technique, wide receiver still seems like his best position at the next level. He can be a matchup problem at 6'4", especially against NFL defensive backs.
13. New Orleans Saints: Vic Beasley, DE/OLB, Clemson
If Vic Beasley were three inches taller and 20 pounds heavier, he would challenge Gregory as the top edge-rusher in this class. Being 6'2" and 220 pounds will knock him down a peg, but that's going to benefit a Saints defense that thrives on being able to send as many pass-rushers as possible.
14. Miami Dolphins: La'el Collins, OT, LSU
One reason Ryan Tannehill is still in the development phase instead of being a star is the fact that he's been sacked 104 times in the last two years. Some of those were his doing, holding the ball too long, but the line is not effective in pass protection.
La'El Collins is underrated coming into this draft for some reason, though that will change after scouts get an up-close look at him. The LSU star looks the part at 6'5" and 322 pounds with a long reach to play away from his body and sharp movements after the snap.
15. San Francisco 49ers: Danny Shelton, DT, Washington
There may be cries to add an offensive playmaker in San Francisco, but the 49ers have the lingering question of Justin Smith's future. Even if the star defensive lineman does return in 2015, he's going to be 36 in September.
Danny Shelton would be a gift for the 49ers and new head coach Jim Tomsula, who got promoted after seven years as defensive line coach. The Washington star is a run-stopping monster with surprising quickness off the snap to be an impact pass-rusher playing at defensive tackle.
16. Houston Texans: Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State
The Texans aren't old in the secondary, save for Johnathan Joseph at 30, but the production from the young guys still leaves plenty of questions. Trae Waynes can fix some of those issues, especially because he's got exceptional length at 6'1".
Waynes' teammate at Michigan State, Tony Lippett, had many kind things to say about the star cornerback to Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press.
"Trae is like a quiet killer," Lippett said. "He ain't really rowdy riled up, he ain't really overly hype about things like that. He's a player that can come up and tackle you, can cover you. Can basically shut down his side of the field. That's why he came out. He's a competitor as well."
When you go up against Andrew Luck twice a year, being able to stop the pass is essential to finding success. Waynes gives the Texans a dynamic in the secondary the team lacks: toughness.
17. San Diego Chargers: Bud Dupree, DE/OLB, Kentucky
Bud Dupree will fill a much-needed void off the edge for San Diego in its 3-4 defense. He's not a finished product yet, but he still finds success because of his length and speed coming around the corner. The Chargers didn't have one player with more than 4.5 sacks last year and had 26 as a team. It's a huge concern that must be addressed.
18. Kansas City Chiefs: Dorial Green-Beckham, WR, Oklahoma
In terms of raw ability, Dorial Green-Beckham should be a top-10 pick. He's 6'4" and 225 pounds with excellent burst, above-average top speed and big-play ability. Unfortunately, the tangible stuff is only part of the story.
Green-Beckham had his share of off-field problems, making him as volatile as any player in this class. The Chiefs are desperate for help at wide receiver and could take a flier on him, hoping to catch lightning in a bottle. It's not an insane notion, though it's one that could backfire in spectacular fashion.
19. Cleveland Browns (via Bills): Eddie Goldman, DT, Florida State
With wide receiver taken care of earlier, the Browns can turn their attention to upgrading a run defense that ranked last in the NFL. Eddie Goldman isn't quite in the same category as Shelton, but he shows similar effectiveness against the run. His power is second to none and covers the gaps as well as defensive tackle.
20. Philadelphia Eagles: Marcus Peters, CB, Washington
It's time for the Eagles to build the back half of their defense. They've been hit as hard as anyone by disappointing free agents and draftees in the secondary recently, so Marcus Peters should provide a welcome breath of fresh air.
Peters isn't as big as Waynes at 5'11", but no cornerback is better at playing the ball. He's got great field vision, which helps him playing man or zone coverage. The Washington star is also one of the few secondary stars physical enough to contribute against the run.
21. Cincinnati Bengals: P.J. Williams, CB, Florida State
Cincinnati's secondary isn't bad, it's just an old group that needs an infusion of youth. Adam Jones and Leon Hall are both over 30, while Dre Kirkpatrick hasn't developed as expected. That leaves a hole that needs to be filled in the near future.
P.J. Williams seems like the kind of talent who will be a star or flame out quickly. He's an aggressive, physical cornerback who tackles well. The problem is his aggressive style can make him vulnerable to double moves and big plays. He doesn't have to change that style in the NFL, but picking spots will be critical.
22. Pittsburgh Steelers: Gerod Holliman, S, Louisville
There's a wide range of opinions on Holliman that make him hard to project in the draft. Scouts who love the Louisville star really love him, like Bucky Brooks of NFL.com:
"That's why I believe veteran scouts will see a young Ed Reed in Holliman's play when they take a closer look. When I evaluated Reed during his final season at Miami, I was blown away by his instincts, awareness and ball skills as a deep defender in the Hurricanes' scheme. He had a knack for being around the ball, and his ability to make the play was unrivaled in the college game.
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However, those who don't like Holliman really don't think his game translates to the next level. Here's what a scout told Bob McGinn of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel: "He needs to go back to school. He's horrible. He can't make a tackle to save his life. He's got pretty good instincts but he's not that athletic."
It's likely, as these things tend to be, that the gap is somewhere in the middle. If any team needs to take a chance on Holliman turning into a star and getting a ball hawk at safety, it's the Steelers. Troy Polamalu is no longer a reliable player, and it's time to look toward the future.
23. Detroit Lions: Malcom Brown, DT, Texas
It's no secret that the Lions are, in all likelihood, going to be in the market for a defensive tackle. Ndamukong Suh is a free agent and is going to cost a fortune. Malcom Brown isn't that kind of player, excelling against the run and being serviceable in the passing game.
Considering the Lions have budding pass-rushing stars like Ezekiel Ansah, a run-stopper like Brown will make a nice complement to this stout defense.
24. Arizona Cardinals: Benardrick McKinney, ILB, Mississippi State
Arizona's built a strong defense without a dominant linebacker. Daryl Washington, who was suspended last year, is the best of the bunch but is more of a solid player than star. Benardrick McKinney has that kind of upside, especially because he can play inside or outside.
In the NFL, playing outside may serve McKinney better, because his game is predicated on speed and getting after the quarterback. Whatever role Bruce Arians finds for the Mississippi State star, odds are good the results will be good.
25. Carolina Panthers: T.J. Clemmings, OT, Pittsburgh
Carolina lost a lot on the offensive line last year, most notably when Jordan Gross retired. Finding reinforcements has to be a priority this offseason, especially with Cam Newton getting beat up at various points in 2014.
T.J. Clemmings is an exciting, if raw, talent who should grow into a solid left tackle. He fits the measurable requirements at 6'4" and 313 pounds with good arm length and leg drive. One thing that's given him problems is speed, as he doesn't have a good first step at this point. It's not a fatal flaw, but it should cause him to start inside on the line and eventually move outside.
26. Baltimore Ravens: Arik Armstead, DE, Oregon
Arik Armstead has Baltimore written all over him. In his first mock draft, ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr. wrote that the Oregon star has all the tools to be a special pass-rusher with a lot of development ahead:
"He has impressive quickness for a player who stands about 6-foot-8 and carries a lean 290 pounds, and the power is obvious, too, because when he plays with leverage and gets under the pads of blockers, he can simply take them backward. Armstead was at one time a potential star on the basketball court as well and still has plenty of raw elements to his game, but guys who are this big and this athletic can become really special with coaching.
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The reason Baltimore makes sense is because Armstead will be going to a spot with two premier pass-rushing linebackers (Elvis Dumervil, Terrell Suggs) who can help teach him the nuances of doing it in the NFL. Also, Dumervil and Suggs are both over 30, so getting younger pass-rushers should be a priority for John Harbaugh.
27. Dallas Cowboys: Shaq Thompson, OLB, Washington
The Cowboys struck gold at inside linebacker last year with Rolando McClain, but they never could find a pass-rusher to fill the shoes of DeMarcus Ware. Even though he's an outside linebacker, Shaq Thompson has the raw ability to become that kind of force.
Thompson is still learning the intricacies of playing closer to the line of scrimmage after previously spending time at cornerback, which tells you plenty about his athleticism. Once he fills out a 224-pound frame, the sky is the limit.
28. Denver Broncos: Jordan Phillips, DT, Oklahoma
There aren't a lot of needs in Denver right now, unless Demaryius Thomas and Julius Thomas both depart as free agents. That luxury allows the Broncos to shoot for ceiling and development. Jordan Phillips is a developing star with size and athleticism, though he doesn't quite know how to put everything together.
29. Indianapolis Colts: Ereck Flowers, OT, Miami
It's time for the Colts to get Andrew Luck better protection. He can do many things behind an average offensive line already, so imagine what could happen with a good group.
Ereck Flowers also serves another purpose for the Colts as a physical and aggressive player. This is a deeply flawed roster that Luck has made seem better than it is. One thing that's been obvious in the team's three playoff losses over the last three years is that it can't match the top teams when it comes to playing physical.
30. Green Bay Packers: Kevin Johnson, CB, Wake Forest
More depth on the defensive line would be nice for Green Bay, but the value at this spot is cornerback. Kevin Johnson needs to get stronger, as he's currently listed at 175 pounds. The Packers have to start getting younger at cornerback, as Jarrett Bush and Tramon Williams are both over 30 and are free agents.
What Johnson lacks in muscle, he makes up for in his ability to play the ball and an incredible feel for where the quarterback is going to throw. He's also not afraid to get in someone's face and play physical, though NFL receivers will exploit him early in his career.
31. Seattle Seahawks: Cameron Erving, C/OT, Florida State
One reason Russell Wilson so often has to scramble is erratic protection from his offensive line. He's made it work well so far, but eventually, age will catch up to him and that quickness will start to fade. It won't happen in the next two years, though it wouldn't hurt to have depth up front.
Cameron Erving isn't ready to step in right now, because he's still learning the offensive line after starting on defense, showing his athleticism. There's power and speed in his game that will fit in nicely with Seattle's physical offensive style, though it will take time to develop him into a star.
32. New England Patriots: Sammie Coates, WR, Auburn
Even though the Patriots aren't prone to taking wide receivers in the first round, Sammie Coates seems like a player too good to pass up. He's got good size at 6'1" and 200 pounds, incredible speed to become a big-play threat and strength to get physical with cornerbacks.
Chris Burke of Sports Illustrated noted that Coates was one of the standout players during the Senior Bowl festivities while acknowledging his weaknesses.
"When the South was on the field, Auburn's Sammie Coates continued to build a Round 1 case for himself," Burke wrote. "He needs much more development as a route-runner, but in the red zone and downfield, he can be lethal."
The Patriots have the luxury of owning arguably the biggest matchup problem in the league, Rob Gronkowski. Coates will need time to develop, especially some of the fundamental things like running routes, but the ability to hit a home run at any moment looks awfully good playing alongside Gronk.
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