Is Jason Witten Already a Hall of Famer?

Saturday in Phoenix, we'll find out if Charles Haley finally has the votes to become the 15th Dallas Cowboy to be enshrined in the Pro Football Hall of Fame. He, Jimmy Johnson and Darren Woodson all have opportunities to join that exclusive club in the years to come. 

But beyond that, there's one current member of the Cowboys who probably holds the best chance of earning a spot in Canton, Ohio, and that's tight end Jason Witten. Witten's only 32, but he's been so damn steady, consistent and productive over the first 12 years of his career that we can already start pondering his Hall of Fame chances. 

Let's do exactly that. 

The numbers are in his favor

The bad news, as Rick Gosselin of the Dallas Morning News points out, is that Witten plays a position that hasn't historically received a lot of love from Hall of Fame voters: 

"

Tight ends are not a priority in Canton. There are only 8 of them in the Hall of Fame and even the best of them had to wait. John Mackey was chosen by the Hall of Fame selection committee in 2000 as the only tight end on the NFL's all-time team—and even he had wait 15 years to get in.

"

But the good news is Witten has still managed to stand out among players at that position.

Witten, who hasn't missed a game since he was a rookie in 2003, is coming off his 11th consecutive 700-yard season. That's something only Tony Gonzalez did more than 10 times. He and Gonzalez are also the only two tight ends in history to hit the 1,000-yard mark on four occasions (Shannon Sharpe and Kellen Winslow did it three times each). 

Among active tight ends, he and Gates are head and shoulders above their peers:

Tight end	Age	REC	YDS	TD	REC%
1. Jason Witten	32	943	10,502	57	70.7
2. Antonio Gates	34	788	10,014	99	66.6
3. Heath Miller	32	532	6,034	43	71.5
4. Vernon Davis	30	423	5,.46	55	61.6
5. Kellen Winslow	31	469	5,236	25	62.0
6. Greg Olsen	29	465	5,188	42	61.8
7. Owen Daniels	32	433	5,144	33	63.7
8. Jimmy Graham	28	386	4,752	51	64.8
9. Rob Gronkowski	25	308	4,379	54	67.1
10. Brent Celek	30	344	4,315	27	63.8

There's still room for Vernon Davis and Greg Olsen to draw closer, and Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski have a lot of time on their side, but that's a landslide right now, especially if you consider Witten's advantage in the reception rate category. 

Graham, Gronkowski, Davis and Gates—who are very different from Witten—have edges in terms of yards per catch, but longevity and durability are keys here. 

That's a big reason why Witten already has done more than any tight end currently in the Hall of Fame: 

Tight end	REC	YDS	YDS/GM	TD	Pro Bowl	All-Pro
Jason Witten	943	10,502	55.0	57	9	2
Shannon Sharpe	815	10,060	49.3	62	8	4
Ozzie Newsome	662	7,980	40.3	47	7	3
Jackie Smith	480	7,918	37.7	40	5	4
Kellen Winslow	541	6,741	61.8	45	5	2
Mike Ditka	427	5,812	36.8	43	5	3
John Mackey	331	5,236	37.7	38	5	0
Dave Casper	378	5,216	35.5	52	5	3
Charlie Sanders	336	4,817	37.6	31	3	1

Only Winslow had more yards per game, only Sharpe had more touchdowns, and nobody made as many Pro Bowls. 

Even when accounting for "inflation"

It's impossible to compare players from separate eras using broad stats. The game has changed far too much. So we have to consider that when viewing Witten in comparison to the eight Hall of Famers above. 

Being a Hall of Famer is all about being one of the best players in a particular era. Mike Ditka and Mackey wouldn't even register as Pro Bowlers, let alone Hall of Famers, with those numbers today, but they had a combined 10 Pro Bowls and three first-team All-Pro nods between them back in the 1960s and 1970s. 

Here's where Witten has ranked within the two decades in which he's been active, compared to those same eight Hall of Famers:

Tight end	20-year era	REC	YDS	TD	Pro Bowl	All-Pro
Jason Witten	2000-2020	2nd	2nd	3rd	2nd	3rd
Shannon Sharpe	1990-2010	2nd	2nd	3rd	2nd	2nd
Ozzie Newsome	1970-1990	1st	1st	3rd	9th	7th
Jackie Smith	1960-1980	1st	1st	7th	2nd	7th
Kellen Winslow	1970-1990	2nd	2nd	4th	1st	2nd
Mike Ditka	1960-1980	2nd	2nd	6th	2nd	5th
John Mackey	1960-1980	11th	8th	9th	2nd	2nd
Dave Casper	1970-1990	8th	7th	1st	1st	1st
Charlie Sanders	1960-1980	10th	12th	13th	1st	2nd

Across the board, only Sharpe fares as well as Witten, who was forced to play most of his career next to two fellow prime Hall of Fame candidates, Gonzalez and Gates. Witten does have a chance to slide within his era in the next half-decade, especially with Graham and Gronk in their prime, but he'll also have an opportunity to keep gaining on the now-retired Gonzalez. 

Eleven seasons into his career, Pro Football Reference determined that the two tight ends who compared best to Witten's career were Hall of Famers Ozzie Newsome and Jackie Smith. PFR also attempts to blend eras by using a metric called "approximate value." In that area, among those who spent all or most of their careers at the tight end position, Witten ranks fifth all time: 

Tight end	Approx. value	Hall of Famer?
1. Tony Gonzalez	148	TBD
2. Antonio Gates	105	TBD
3. Shannon Sharpe	104	Yes
4. Jackie Smith	95	Yes
5. Jason Witten	89	TBD
6. Ozzie Newsome	77	Yes
7. Kellen Winslow	71	Yes

Working against him: team success (or lack thereof) 

According to Gosselin, 83 percent of all Hall of Famers either played on, coached or owned championship teams. Here's how Hall of Fame tight ends have fared in that area:

Tight end	Playoff wins	Championships
Shannon Sharpe	13	3
John Mackey	5	1
Dave Casper	4	1
Mike Ditka	3	1
Kellen Winslow	3	0
Ozzie Newsome	3	0
Jason Witten	2	0
Jackie Smith	1	0
Charlie Sanders	0	0

A championship would probably be the icing on the cake for Witten, but at least his modern-day counterparts haven't done much better in this area. Gonzalez, Gates, Graham and Gronkowski have a combined zero championships and have an average of three postseason victories each. 

The reality is that wins and losses continue to impact coaches and quarterbacks to much more of an extent than they do players at other positions. 

Regarding the four G's

Gonzalez, Gates, Graham and Gronkowski can really complicate things. Gonzalez retired with a far stronger resume, Gates has 42 more touchdowns than Witten in 12 fewer games, and Graham and Gronk are averaging significantly more yards per catch and yards per game. Those two have had more team success, and both are within six touchdowns of Witten's total despite the fact they're much younger. 

Tight end	REC/GM	YDS/GM	TD/GM	YDS/REC
Rob Gronkowski	4.7	67.4	0.83	14.2
Jimmy Graham	4.9	60.9	0.65	12.3
Tony Gonzalez	4.9	56.0	0.41	11.4
Antonio Gates	4.4	55.9	0.55	12.7
Jason Witten	4.9	55.0	0.30	11.1

If three of those four G's continue to perform at high levels, it could hurt Witten's case in a major way. The Hall of Fame has already been dealing with a substantial receiver backlog in recent years, and tight ends rarely get inducted right away.

Sharpe, Newsome and Winslow had to wait a few years, while Smith, Dave Casper, Ditka, Charlie Sanders and Mackey all had to wait more than a decade. There's no such thing as a first-ballot Hall of Fame tight end, although Gonzalez might change that. 

That means that Gates and Witten will inevitably have to wait, regardless of what they do between now and retirement. And if Graham and Gronk continue to tear it up, we could have four tight ends on the waiting list approximately a decade from now. 

But eventually, regardless of what happens between now and the moment he decides he's had enough, Witten should have a place in Canton. 

Brad Gagnon has covered the NFC East for Bleacher Report since 2012.

Follow @Brad_Gagnon