Power Ranking NFL Teams That Can Go Worst to First in 2026

At least one NFL team has gone from worst to first in its division in all but one season this decade, with the New England Patriots and Chicago Bears accomplishing the feat in 2025.

It has happened roughly two dozen times since the 2002 realignment, so there's a strong chance at least one team will pull it off again in 2026.

Here's a rundown of which teams have the best shot.

8. Arizona Cardinals

AP Photo/Rick Scuteri

Marvin Harrison Jr.

Why They Can

There's a universe in which one of their three not-so-enticing quarterback options excels with Marvin Harrison Jr., Jeremiyah Love and Trey McBride as a three-headed monster, but this would also likely require the 49ers to get crushed (again) by injuries, the Rams to hit a massive wall with their aging quarterback and the Seahawks to suffer a devastating Super Bowl hangover. 

Why They Can't

This is clearly a bridge year as the rebuild continues. Jacoby Brissett and Gardner Minshew II are not the answer, and Carson Beck needs time at a minimum, those weapons have question marks, and last year's 29th-ranked scoring defense has a long way to go in the league's strongest division. 

Prediction

For the fourth time in the last five years, they win fewer than a handful of games and finish last in the NFC West.

7. New York Jets

AP Photo/Dennis Waszak Jr.

Geno Smith

Why They Can

Geno Smith could theoretically give them some stability at quarterback, and he could be well-supported by an offense featuring a wide array of young and talented weapons and pass protectors. A Super Bowl hangover may hit the Patriots, the Dolphins are rebuilding, and injuries could finally get the better of the Bills. 

Why They Can't

The 35-year-old Smith has thrown a league-high 32 interceptions since the start of 2024. No other quarterback has more than 27 in that span. Meanwhile, the 31st-ranked scoring defense from 2025 is still rebuilding, and it's highly unlikely the Bills and Patriots will both collapse. 

Prediction

They actually make progress with all of that young talent but are ultimately stymied by unreliable quarterback play and the presence of Buffalo and New England in a third-place season. 

6. Las Vegas Raiders

AP Photo/Lucas Peltier

Ashton Jeanty

Why They Can

Kirk Cousins and Fernando Mendoza give them new energy at quarterback, the offensive line has a high ceiling, Ashton Jeanty could join Brock Bowers as a star, and the defense isn't a complete lost cause. The Chiefs are in a tough spot, the Chargers have yet to prove they can grab the division by the reins, and anything could happen with the Broncos and their young quarterback coming off of surgery. 

Why They Can't

The transition at quarterback could still cause problems, especially considering a lack of accomplished talent at wide receiver. The line's floor is also low, and this D doesn't look considerably better than the one that ranked 25th in points allowed in 2025. Kansas City could also bounce back, while Denver and Los Angeles look stronger than ever with more support for their franchise quarterbacks. 

Prediction

A team that has won a total of seven games the last two seasons improves but still finds itself with a handful of victories and a fourth-place finish. 

5. Cleveland Browns

AP Photo/David Dermer

Mason Graham

Why They Can

A good defense took a hit with the Myles Garrett trade, but Jared Verse, Mason Graham and Carson Schwesinger give them a tremendously exciting foundation on that side of the ball. If one of their three talented quarterbacks can break out behind a rebuilt offensive line with plenty of young and talented weaponry, they could make a surprise run. 

Why They Can't

Even if all of that were to come together, they'd be extremely hard-pressed to overtake the Super Bowl contender Ravens, the defensively stout Steelers with their Hall of Fame quarterback and the gunslinging Bengals. There's also a good chance they miss on Deshaun Watson, Shedeur Sanders and Dillon Gabriel. 

Prediction

They take a small step backward with all of that change and finish dead-last with four wins. 

4. Tennessee Titans

AP Photo/John Amis

Cam Ward

Why They Can

Last year's No. 1 overall pick Cam Ward flashed late in his rookie season and could explode with new weapons Carnell Tate and Wan'Dale Robinson. They've bulked up the offensive line, added talent on defense, and it doesn't appear as though anyone will run away with the AFC South. 

Why They Can't

Ward still struggled overall as a rookie and nothing is guaranteed at those support positions. The defense was still a bottom-five scoring unit last year, and both Houston and Jacksonville have a lot more momentum in that division. 

Prediction

They could make a run at the Colts, and maybe even the Texans or Jaguars if their quarterbacks can't deliver, but they're not developed enough to overtake all three. They improve on back-to-back three-win seasons and win a handful of games but finish last yet again. 

3. New York Giants

AP Photo/Adam Hunger

Jaxson Dart

Why They Can

The NFC East is almost always chaos, and the Giants lead the division in hype following promising rookie campaigns from Jaxson Dart and Cam Skattebo. They're getting Skattebo and Malik Nabers back from injury, they've added reinforcements everywhere else on offense, and the D has several mega playmakers ready to make statements. 

Why They Can't

It's arguably still a work in progress for a team that has just seven wins the last two seasons combined. The Eagles and Commanders met in the NFC title game just 18 months ago, while the Cowboys are loaded on offense.

Prediction

Dallas could still have major issues on defense while Washington carries questions on both sides of the ball. The nothing-to-lose G-Men conquer both but fall short of the division title in a close battle with the more experienced and resilient Eagles. They settle for second place but sneak into the playoffs as a wild card. 

2. New Orleans Saints

AP Photo/Matthew Hinton

Tyler Shough

Why They Can

The wide-open NFC South hasn't had an 11-game winner since 2021. The Saints look like they have their new franchise quarterback in Tyler Shough, and it's hard to fully get behind the defending champion Panthers (8-9 in 2025), the consistently mediocre Falcons (major questions at quarterback) and the fading Buccaneers (went 2-7 down the stretch last season). 

Why They Can't

This is still a fairly weak offensive line last season and the jury remains out on Shough and his young supporting cast. A lot has to come together for a team that won five games in 2024 and six in 2025. 

Prediction

They'll increase that total to eight, maybe even nine in 2026, and the division crown will come down to Week 18 with New Orleans completely involved. 

1. Detroit Lions

AP Photo/Paul Sancya

Jared Goff

Why They Can

The NFC North was their division in 2023 and 2024. They had an off year in 2025 but have the talent and the expectation to bounce back in 2026. They're a slight favorite to win what should be a very competitive division this season. 

Why They Can't

It's possible they peaked in 2023 and 2024, and the league figured them out to an extent in 2025. The line has undergone some scary changes, and it's still fair to wonder about the defense. The defending champ Bears look even stronger, and the Packers and Vikings should be there or thereabouts as well. 

Prediction

Like the Saints, I expect them to be in the mix through Week 18. The division crown is a toss-up because Green Bay and Chicago look a bit more stable.