Buying or Selling Fantasy Football's Riskiest Picks in 2026

Risk is a part of fantasy football, just like draft day, the waiver wire and emotional breakdowns.

No matter the player, there's always risk involved with selecting them. Guys get hurt—injuries are another part of the game. And sometimes, whether it's due to a change in situation or just a drop-off in performance, players fail to meet expectations. Fail to live up to their price tag. Spend their season as the most depressing superhero ever—Captain Letdown.

But some players just reek of risk as we head toward the season. While there's talent and upside present with every player, for some the odds of disappointment is alarmingly high.

But not all of those risky players bust. Sometimes, players fend off the urge to become Captain Letdown and go on to have an outstanding season. To help win fantasy managers leagues.

Knowing which risky players to target and which to fade is valuable information.

And success in fantasy football is all about value.

QB Drake Maye, New England Patriots

AP Photo/Charlie Riedel

ADP: QB5, 68th Overall

Last year, New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye was one of fantasy football's biggest surprises. In just his second season, Maye completed a league-high 72 percent of his passes, threw for 4,392 yards and 31 touchdowns, ranked fourth among all quarterbacks in rushing yards with 450 and finished the season third in fantasy points among quarterbacks.

There appears to be some skepticism regarding Maye's ability to back those numbers up, especially with New England facing a far more difficult schedule. But per Jorge Martin of a Fantasy Life, the addition of veteran wide receiver A.J. Brown could lead to Maye not only matching last year's numbers but bettering them.

"It all starts with both of their success rates against man coverage. Brown has a 96.6 PFF grade against man coverage, with Maye turning in a 67.2% completion rate against that same look," he said. "His success rate against man is 54.2%, which is fourth in the league. Cornerbacks are going to have their work cut out for them when lining up one-on-one against Brown. Maye also was fifth in the NFL with a 9.1 ADOT, which puts him in fine company with Matthew Stafford and Lamar Jackson, two QBs who really know how to push it. With Maye now having an elite man beater in Brown, look for Maye to be taking plenty of deep shots all season."

For fantasy managers who simply have to have a top-five quarterback on draft day, this analyst is always going to advocate picking toward the back of that group—especially when you can get a player with a realistic chance to be the overall QB1 in 2026.

Verdict: Buy

QB Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders

AP Photo/Abbie Parr

ADP: QB4, 66th Overall

Jayden Daniels' first two seasons have been polar opposites. The first was outstanding—over 3,500 passing yards, 25 passing scores, the second-most rushing yards among quarterbacks in the league (891) and top-five fantasy numbers.

Last year, however, was far different. Daniels' per-game passing numbers fell precipitously just about across the board and Daniels played in just seven games due to knee and elbow injuries.

As SI's Jeff Salcedo wrote, injuries aren't the only concern with Daniels in 2026.

"Injuries don't tell the whole story for Daniels as a sophomore slump and a new offensive coordinator may put Daniels in another potential bust season heading into the 2026 season," he said. "Compared to other fantasy quarterbacks who played a minimum of seven games, Daniels ranked 17th with 16.8 FPPG, a far cry from his 21.5 FPPG performance in his rookie campaign. Daniels will also be with a new playcaller for the first time in his professional career as his former offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury moved west to join the Los Angeles Rams. A first-time offensive coordinator may bring along more Fantasy hiccups for Daniels coming off an injury-riddled sophomore slump."

Frankly, Daniels' downturn in passing efficiency and the lack of a big-time additions to the Washington passing game may be the biggest concerns of all with the youngster this year. Daniels averaged almost 30 fewer passing yards per game last year compared to 2024. If that's the case, there will be that much more pressure on Daniels to do damage with his legs.

And it could be just a matter of time before he lands on the shelf again.

Verdict: Sell

RB Omarion Hampton, Los Angeles Chargers

AP Photo/Julio Cortez

ADP: RB9, 14th Overall

Ashton Jeanty got most of the headlines last year, but Omarion Hampton was a first-round pick in his own right, going 22nd overall to the Los Angeles Chargers.

The results of that pick were—not great. Hampton played in just nine games due to a broken ankle and tallied just 545 yards on the ground. But as Matt Bowen wrote at ESPN, a new offensive coordinator and improved blocking in front of Hampton creates the possibility for a breakout second season.

"An ankle injury limited Hampton to nine games as a rookie in 2025, and that Chargers offensive line was beat up all season long," he said. "Still, Hampton had three games of 20 or more fantasy points, while checking in at 15.1 fantasy PPG. With a healthy and upgraded front--especially on the interior--and a new system under offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel, there should be real optimism for Hampton in his second pro season. Look for the Chargers to lean more on 21 personnel (2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR), as the team signed former Miami fullback Alec Ingold. The Dolphins, under McDaniel, had 131 rushing attempts out of 21 personnel last season (second most). This allows McDaniel to use Ingold as a lead blocker or "move" player to create numbers to the play side for Hampton."

We just saw McDaniel turn De'Von Achane into a top-five running back on a far worse offense in a season where Achane barely topped 300 total touches. It's not that hard to imagine Hampton enjoying similar success with far better talent around him.

And that presents an opportunity for value early in Round 2.

Verdict: Buy

RB Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers

AP Photo/Stephen Brashear

ADP: RB3, 6th Overall

Last year, San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey tallied a career-high 413 touches on the way to 2,126 total yards and the No. 1 spot among fantasy running backs in PPR points. It was the third time in McCaffrey's career that he surpassed 2,000 total yards and was the RB1 overall by a sizable margin.

In 2026, McCaffrey is going to be the biggest bust at running back in all of fantasy—full stop.

For starters, there is the "Curse of 370," which dictates that backs who top 370 touches in a  season usually experience a precipitous drop-off the following year. Including McCaffrey, there have been 11 instances since 2016 where a running back surpassed 370 touches in a season. Of the other 10 times, just one player came close enough to the prior year's production to reasonably justify his ADP.

The average drop-off in PPR production for running backs coming off a 370-touch season is just under 48 percent. That's the difference between being last year's overall RB1 in PPR points last year and finishing outside the top-20.

There's also the matter of McCaffrey's third career 2,000-yard season. The first two times it happened (2019 and 2023), McCaffrey missed at least 13 games the following year. His fantasy production plummeted by at least 80 percent—including the biggest single-year decline of any back to amass over 2,000 total yards since 2010.

Oh, and McCaffrey is a 30-year-old back—well past the age where backs typically begin to decline.

Drafting McCaffrey in Round 1 is an invitation for disaster.

Verdict: Sell

WR DeVonta Smith, Philadelphia Eagles

AP Photo

ADP: WR13, 28th Overall

It's the dawn of a new day in Philadelphia. With A.J. Brown now catching passes in Philadelphia, there's a new sheriff in The City of the Brotherly Love—sixth-year veteran DeVonta Smith.

Smith has amassed three 1,000-yard seasons in five years, and with him set to spend more time on the boundary and see a bump in target share, Nathan Jahnke of Pro Football Focus sees big things in store for the 27-year-old this year.

"The Eagles traded away Brown and lost Jahan Dotson in free agency while adding Makai Lemon, Hollywood Brown and Dontayvion Wicks," he wrote. "Lemon will primarily be a slot receiver, while both Brown and Wicks have played inside at times in their careers. We should see a significant shift toward Smith playing out wide rather than in the slot. The loss of Brown should help Smith's target rate. Smith's ability to be a top-five or top-10 fantasy wide receiver will somewhat depend on the Eagles' skill to rebound as a team, but given the talent on the unit, that is a decent bet to make. At worst, Smith's floor will be higher with the augmented target rate, making him an even safer starting fantasy option."

Smith has garnered a reputation as a slot receiver, but the reality is that he has been more effective on the outside over his career. Only Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Puka Nacua had more yards per route ran last season on the outside than Smith.

The Eagles wouldn't have traded Brown if they didn't have confidence that Smith could be a high-end No. 1 receiver.

It's time for fantasy managers to get on board with that dawning reality.

Verdict: Buy

WR Malik Nabers, New York Giants

AP Photo/Jerome Miron

ADP: WR15, 34th Overall

Malik Nabers was a force as a rookie for the New York Giants, topping 100 receptions and 1,200 receiving yards while scoring seven touchdowns. But Nabers made it just four weeks into his sophomore campaign before tearing his ACL.

Despite that injury, fantasy managers are still drafting Nabers as a high-end WR2—and given the state of his recovery, Michael Fabiano of Sports Illustrated believes those managers are asking for trouble.

"Unless you've been living under a rock, you know that Nabers has become a big question mark in fantasy drafts," he said. "He had a major knee reconstruction last year and required a clean-up in May to relieve some stiffness. The Giants have also added a boatload of middling wide receivers, a list that includes 33-year-old Odell Beckham Jr., to add depth if Nabers is ready for training camp or Week 1. There's even been talk that he could open the season on the PUP list, and it could take time for him to return to his previous fantasy greatness. So, if you're still planning on drafting Nabers, it should be with the expectation that you're not going to get high-end totals."

That May clean-up is a significant red flag for fantasy managers. It's not just a matter of Nabers being out there in September. It's how long it will be until he is close to 100 percent.

Were this a sixth-round pick, it would be a different story. But in Round 3, there are just too many questions surrounding Nabers to justify the pick.

Verdict: Sell

TE Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs

AP Photo/Reed Hoffmann

ADP: TE9, 116th Overall

There was a time when the notion of Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce being available in Round 10 would be laughable. But as Nick Mariano pointed out at RotoBaller, the Kelce of now and the Kelce of then are two different guys.

"Though he played all 17 games (in 2025), his usage was scaled back," he said, "resulting in his fewest targets (108) and catches (76) since 2015. The average depth of target remained steady at 6.8, but his route participation rate fell roughly three percentage points. His 851 yards still edged last year's 823 on 21 fewer catches, with five TDs surpassing the career-low of three in '24. Kelce did so on just 12 red-zone targets, compared to 25 the year before. While the Chiefs took a teamwide step back last year, his dip in scoring output is a longer trend. The last three years (48 games) have conferred 13 total TDs, which is a stark decline after scoring 12 times in '22 alone."

Yes, Kelce isn't the player who was once legitimately considered a first-round pick—he'll be 37 years old in October. There are also questions about Patrick Mahomes' early-season availability after he tore his ACL last season.

But Kelce has been targeted over 100 times in each of the last 11 seasons, and while he may not be dominant anymore Kelce was quietly third in PPR points among tight ends in points last season.

In the 10th round? What do you realistically have to lose?

Verdict: Buy

TE Harold Fannin Jr., Cleveland Browns

AP Photo/Sue Ogrocki

ADP: TE6, 97th Overall

Just about any player from the Cleveland Browns is something of a risky pick, because Cleveland is where hope goes to die. But after Harold Fannin Jr. led the Browns in catches, receiving yards and touchdown catches in 2025, Fannin is being taken as a solid weekly starter in fantasy drafts this summer.

Evan Tarracciano of Fantasy Pros sees danger looming at the Factory of Sadness.

"I'm telling folks to pump the brakes, here," he said. "The Browns will have Deshaun Watson back under center to start Week 1, and Fannin has yet to establish a rapport with the veteran option. Watson has been dreadful in each of the last two years he's played, and will need to adjust to an entirely new offensive line himself. Cleveland made a point of spending heavily in the draft to add receiving threats, namely wideouts KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston. Their presence on the field is sure to eat away at Fannin's target share. Then you need to remember that Cleveland hired Todd Monken as their new head coach in the offseason, and he is known for being a run-heavy signal-caller."

So, we have a quarterback Fannin has no rapport with. Increased competition for targets on an offense that could be among the NFL's worst in 2026. And Fannin's asking price in drafts is where he finished the 2025 campaign, which is closer to his fantasy ceiling than his floor.

Other than that, though, everything is fine.

Verdict: Sell

Gary Davenport is a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year. Follow Gary on X at @IDPGodfather.