Gabriel Paulista: Should Arsenal Sign Villarreal Defender?

Arsenal's primary January transfer target is Villarreal's Brazilian centre/left-back Gabriel Paulista, 24, but should the Gunners sign him?

Here is a detailed evaluation of Gabriel, who is rated by Arsenal manager Arsene Wenger.

"We are slowly progressing [in talks with Villarreal] and there is a chance [to sign Gabriel]," Wenger said, per BBC Sport. "We are ready to pay the price we think right for a good player."

What is the price? €20/£15.1 million, the valuation of Gabriel's buyout clause, per Miguel Angel Rodriguez and Victor Franch at Marca.

Though, Spanish football journalist Guillem Balague reported that Arsenal are unwilling to pay €17/£12.8 million, let alone €20/£15.1 million.

Villarreal manager Marcelino revealed the club's hand would be forced if Arsenal hit a certain figure, presumably alluding to Gabriel's buyout clause.

"On a sporting level I would prefer [Gabriel] to stay," Marcelino said, per Dermot Corrigan at ESPN FC. "But you must look at what [Gabriel] thinks and what is the possible offer, which might be impossible for [Villarreal] to turn down."

Having signed Gabriel for €3.3/£2.5 million from Esporte Clube Vitoria—the club that gave David Luiz a chance after he was let go by Sao Paulo—Villarreal stand to make a €16.7/£12.6 million profit.

If Wenger meets Gabriel's buyout clause, Villarreal will receive a club-record transfer fee for selling a defender. 

Martin Caceres | Villarreal → Barcelona: €16.5/£12.5 million (2008; 21 years old).

Jose Enrique | Villarreal → Newcastle United: €8.3/£6.3 million (2007; 21 years old).

Diego Godin | Villarreal → Atletico Madrid: €8/£6.1 million (2010; 24 years old).

Cristian Zapata | Villarreal → AC Milan: €6/£4.5 million (2013; 26 years old).

Ivan Marcano | Villarreal → Rubin Kazan: €6/£4.5 million (2012; 25 years old).

Former Barcelona and Chelsea defender Albert Ferrer is convinced of Gabriel's quality.

"[Gabriel] is a very good centre-back," Ferrer said, per Sky Sports' Revista de La Liga. "[He is] very important in Villarreal, so I understand [why] Villarreal want [Arsenal to pay the buyout clause]."

League 2014-15	Interceptions Per Game	Total Interceptions
Calum Chambers	1.9	35
Gabriel Paulista	3.5	66
Laurent Koscielny	3.6	43
Nacho Monreal	2.9	46
Per Mertesacker	2.1	45

You know Gabriel can bolster Arsenal's defence as he has accumulated more interceptions in league play than Calum Chambers, Laurent Koscielny, Nacho Monreal and Per Mertesacker.

When you watch Gabriel, you see him aggressively attacking the ball, routinely forcing turnovers and breaking up play.

This is why Wenger wants to buy Gabriel, a 6'2" and 159-pound right-sided centre-back, who has the raw tangibles to transition into an elite footballer.

One important quality Gabriel brings is recovery speed, a trait the lumbering Mertesacker lacks.

Are there concerns with Gabriel? Of course. 

Gabriel might not receive a work permit, which prompted Wenger to poke holes in what he considers a broken system, per Sam Wallace at The Independent:

"

The 75 percent rule can of course be questioned because it's much more difficult to play 75 percent of the games for Brazil than for Luxembourg.

It is difficult to make a rule that suits everyone.

We respect the rules in England.

When you buy a player who does not fulfil the criteria we go in front of a commission and they tell us 'yes' or 'no'. We will accept that.

We have to accept the rules of the country.

"

To drive home the point, Wenger revealed he could not sign a then 17-year-old Angel Di Maria, who now plays for Manchester United, due to work permit issues, per BBC Sport.

Sure, Gabriel does not qualify for a work permit because he is not a Brazilian international.

But Gabriel most definitely meets the standard of the exceptional talent clause, which counteracts him not being recognised by the Brazilian national team.

That was the clause Chelsea used to sign Willian from Anzhi Makhachkala, per Dominic Fifield at the Guardian.

How are you sure Gabriel qualifies as an exceptional talent?

• Gabriel averages more interceptions per game (3.5) than Real Madrid's FIFA World Cup, UEFA European Championship, UEFA Champions League and La Liga winning centre-back Sergio Ramos (3.0).
• Do you know who has registered the most interceptions in the UEFA Europa League? Gabriel (32 in six games).
• Starting 18 of 19 La Liga games, Gabriel has enhanced Villarreal's defence, which has conceded less goals (17) than reigning league champions Atletico Madrid (18) this season.

What Wenger will probably keep to himself is the extensive list of defensive miscues the Brazilian has made.

January 10, 2015 | Malaga 1-1 Villarreal: Gabriel bizarrely ducked underneath the ball, allowing Malaga centre-forward Nordin Amrabat to rush through on goal.

Amrabat proceeded to clip the ball over onrushing Villarreal goalkeeper Sergio Asenjo.

January 3, 2015 | Elche 2-2 Villarreal: Gabriel did not get in front of Elche centre-forward Jonathas, who latched on to the cross and scored.

October 26, 2014 | Sevilla FC 2-1 Villarreal: Rather than remaining calm and clearing the ball, Gabriel panicked, inadvertently toe-poking the ball to Barcelona's Sevilla loanee Denis Suarez, who took advantage of the gift. 

September 27, 2014 | Villarreal 0-2 Real Madrid: Gabriel does not look over his shoulder. By the time Real Madrid centre-forward Karim Benzema releases the pass, it's too late. Another goal for Real Madrid left-forward Cristiano Ronaldo.

September 24, 2014 | Eibar 1-1 Villarreal: Two weak headed clearances in the space of three seconds from Gabriel contributed to Eibar central-attacking midfielder Mikel Arruabarrena poaching a goal.

April 27, 2014 | Villarreal 2-3 Barcelona: Not being in the right position to cut off Barcelona right-back Dani Alves' cross factored into Gabriel scoring an own goal.

Gabriel forgot to mark Barcelona deep-lying forward Lionel Messi, who scored without being pressured.

March 17, 2014 | Villarreal 1-1 Athletic Bilbao: Handled the ball in the box while contesting an aerial duel, Gabriel was yellow carded and conceded a penalty (ensuing spot-kick was saved).

Gabriel received a second yellow card and was sent off for elbowing Athletic Bilbao centre-forward Aritz Aduriz.

March 8, 2014 | Granada 2-0 Villarreal: Caught out by Granada central midfielder Fran Rico's through-ball, Gabriel was a step behind play. Consequently, he did not contest Granada centre-forward Youssef El-Arabi's shot, which hit the back of the net.

February 24, 2014 | Espanyol 1-2 Villarreal: Charging out, Gabriel failed to win the ball from Espanyol centre-forward Sergio Garcia, who played in then Espanyol substitute Jhon Cordoba for a goal.

February 3, 2014 | Villarreal 3-1 Osasuna: Gabriel missed a tackle on then Osasuna left-winger Emiliano Armenteros, which enabled him to create a goal for then Osasuna substitute Oriol Riera.

December 21, 2013 | Villarreal 1-2 Sevilla: Gabriel was out-jumped by Sevilla centre-forward Carlos Bacca, whose header hit the crossbar.

November 29, 2013 | Villarreal 1-1 Malaga: Rather than contest the ball, Gabriel froze, enabling Malaga centre-back Weligton to head home a 93rd-minute equaliser. 

Andres Kudacki/Associated Press

The red flag with Gabriel is his Dejan Lovren-esque Jekyll and Hyde demeanour. 

• In form: Dominates the game aerially, on the ground and is a passing outlet from the back.
• Out of form: Sebastien Squillaci-like centre-back with a touch of Andre Santos at left-back.

What does Wenger see in Gabriel?

You surmise a future world-class centre-back.

Should that belief become a reality, €20/£15.1 million is a modest fee to pay for Gabriel, when Paris Saint-Germain's David Luiz is worth €49.5/£37.5 million and Manchester City's Eliaquim Mangala is valued at €42.3/£32 million.

+allanjiang.

When not specified, statistics via WhoScored.com.