Detroit Lions Free Agents: Ranking Re-Sign Priorities

The Detroit Lions have a large list of free agents who will require decisions. General manager Martin Mayhew has already made one decision public, so I decided to help him by ranking the highest priorities among those Lions whose deals are set to expire.

To be clear, this isn't a talent ranking of the best players without current contracts. This list takes into account the need at the position, the likelihood of finding another option to fill the spot at the same value and the probability of inking a deal with the listed player.

So click through to find out the Lions' biggest priorities among their own free agents heading into February.

Not on the Radar

Paul Sancya/Associated Press

Mayhew has met with the organization's key decision-makers and analysts to decide the fate of the impending free agents. The following are projections of those who won't receive more than a good reference and well wishes:

• OL Garrett Reynolds
• WR/KR Jeremy Ross
• C Dominic Raiola
• G Rob Sims

Raiola and Sims could have theoretically been brought back for cheap. However, with Raiola's antics forcing a suspension for the season finale, the long-time starting center has already been shown the door, per Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press. Sims will probably follow him pretty closely, since there are upgrades to be had either on the roster or through the draft.

Since he knew the scheme, Reynolds was only brought in as insurance after Corey Hilliard was placed on the injured reserve list. His play didn't justify anything more than a camp invite.

And Ross' season didn't contain the promise of his debut in Detroit, when he had two touchdowns on returns and one through the air.

Could Get an Offer

Gary Wiepert/Associated Press

The following guys aren't nearly such clear-cut cases. Nobody would be surprised if each player was able to find work somewhere else, and it's just as probable some of them are brought back to Detroit:

• QB Kellen Moore
• FB Jed Collins
• TE Kellen Davis
• DE/LB Darryl Tapp
• DT Andre Fluellen
• CB Cassius Vaughn
• CB Josh Thomas
• LS Don Muhlbach

If books created odds of such things, Muhlbach would be my first option for some easy cash. You never hear his name because he does his job well. There's no reason to change long snappers.

Collins, Fluellen and Vaughn will all likely get a shot again. Collins knows the offense and catches well enough to handle his duties, while Fluellen actually had a couple of impact plays rounding out the bottom of the rotation.

Vaughn had an up-and-down season and was exposed as a nickelback, which isn't his natural position. He's earned a shot at filling the depth chart but will face a young influx of talent.

There will be calls for my head on Twitter after disrespecting the "accomplished" Moore. Yet there's no reason to believe the coaching staff trusts him. He's never been active for a game in his career, and some other young guy could catch Mayhew's eye.

11. LB Ashlee Palmer

Rick Osentoski/Associated Press

Ashlee Palmer was a starter last year and deserves the honor of cracking this list.

The rugged outside linebacker was able to fend off Kyle Van Noy during the second half of the season, but he didn't exactly leave a dent in the stat sheet.

The six-year veteran only logged 187 snaps this season. For perspective, defensive tackle Andre Fluellen didn't join the team until Nick Fairley went down before the Week 9 bye, and he finished with 160 snaps.

Palmer only accounted for 12 tackles, which is barely one-third of what he racked up last year and the second-lowest total of his career. And if you're not making the routine plays, the gaffes appear much larger:

"

Ashlee Palmer whiffs on a screen to Martellus Bennett, who gains 12. Bears already in FG range.

— Josh Katzenstein (@jkatzenstein) November 27, 2014"

He's still a veteran presence who knows the defense. Van Noy looked timid and lost after he returned to the team midseason, so it's impossible to say that Palmer's services won't be needed.

Plus, he's versatile enough to handle different reserve duties if necessary and can contribute on special teams.

10. LB Josh Bynes

Paul Sancya/Associated Press

Defensive coordinator Teryl Austin brought in a few former Ravens when the depth dwindled due to injuries. Josh Bynes was probably the most successful of those, save for James Ihedigbo, and he did enough to consider keeping around.

Despite not getting onto the field until Week 6 against the Vikings, he still managed to log more snaps (212) than Ashlee Palmer and was a big reason why Kyle Van Noy only garnered 51 snaps. His tackling was his biggest advantage, missing only one and recording 22 total tackles.

But Bynes isn't a shoo-in to make next year's roster.

His efficiency in the run game didn't expand to coverage, where he allowed 84.6 percent of the passes thrown his way to be completed. And some of those had a big impact:

"

Rodgers sees that Josh Bynes is sticking to Starks in man across the field, the seas part and he takes off on third and 7 for the first.

— Tyler Dunne (@TyDunne) December 28, 2014"

The biggest boost to his Detroit stock would be for the Lions to make Stephen Tulloch a cap casualty. And even then, the Lions could opt for younger, more athletic talent.

9. S Abdul-Quddus

Jeff Haynes/Associated Press

Last year's signing of Isa Abdul-Quddus didn't raise too many eyebrows. He spent the prior three years in New Orleans and played sparingly in 2013.

Starting strong safety James Ihedigbo gave Abdul-Quddus three early starts because of a neck injury. The fourth-year player from Fordham graded out to be almost exactly average, per Pro Football Focus' grading system, coming in at a 1.0 (0.0 means you are doing your job almost neutrally, without good or bad effect).

That's fine for a reserve safety meant to provide depth. And he has value in the third phase of the game that's often ignored by everyone but NFL front offices during the offseason:

"

#Lions captains today: LT Riley Reiff, DE Ziggy Ansah and Isa Abdul-Quddus (special teams).

— Paula Pasche (@paulapasche) January 4, 2015"

His biggest concern should be Detroit looking for Ihedigbo's eventual replacement. It would make sense for Mayhew to give Abdul-Quddus' roster spot to someone who can do all of the things Abdul-Quddus can while developing into a possible starter.

Abdul-Quddus' ceiling isn't high enough to compete with that.

8. QB Dan Orlovsky

Rick Osentoski/Associated Press

Matthew Stafford hasn't missed a start in four years. His backup must have the ability to hold down the ship in a pinch, but his role is more of a helper in terms of preparation.

Presumably, that's why Dan Orlovsky was brought in last offseason. He's comfortable with head coach Jim Caldwell and has been in the league since 2005, meaning he's seen a lot of things he can pass off to Stafford.

His play on the field, at least in the 2014 preseason, left a lot to be desired. It should be noted he was learning offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi's system, which negates the Caldwell familiarity a bit. And his greatest NFL achievement has become a verb:

"

Watching on the airport big screen, missed that "@msuspartan86: Lindley almost Dan Orlovsky'd that out the back of the end zone.”

— Dave Birkett (@davebirkett) January 3, 2015"

He still ranks further ahead of half the impending free agents because there aren't many options better than Orlovsky. Brian Hoyer will probably want a chance to start. Jason Campbell or Shaun Hill won't have the benefit of a year in the system and might not represent an upgrade, anyway.

7. K Matt Prater

Charles Rex Arbogast/Associated Press

It's not often a kicker breaks into the top 10 of a team's most sought-after free agents. It's also not often two kickers combine to go 4-of-12 and get released in the first six weeks.

Matt Prater was a big find for a team that lost a home game to Buffalo mostly because of the inability of Alex Henery to connect on a late 50-yard field goal, leading to great field position for the Bills.

But Detroit can call off the search for kickers because Prater doesn't seem anxious to find a new gig:

"

#Lions could have their future kicker in Matt Prater, who's said he'd like to stay in Detroit: http://t.co/vNPiTkcFUV pic.twitter.com/zuF48NuVPO

— Detroit Lions (@Lions) January 8, 2015"

Prater finished the year pretty well, knocking in 21 of his 26 attempts, including a long of 52 yards. Considering the trouble Detroit had filling the position, this should be a no-brainer so long as the money is right.

6. DE George Johnson

Duane Burleson/Associated Press

The Lions have done well with free agency. Not only did Mayhew find his most-productive receiver and starting safeties, he was able to find a starting right tackle among the undrafted players and found an impact pass-rusher deep in the talent pool.

It should be noted that Mayhew credits Sheldon White, director of player personnel, with the signing of Johnson. He might want to do more for the one-day hopeful general manager because Johnson gave Detroit a great weapon in its defensive-line rotation.

Johnson finished the year with 23 tackles and six sacks, just 1.5 fewer than Ezekiel Ansah. Most of those came via his athleticism that he amplifies with his intelligence to become a factor in other facets of the game:

"

#Lions Film: George Johnson also athletically and alertly took away a WR screen earlier in game.

— Andy Benoit (@Andy_Benoit) December 12, 2014"

The only concern is if he can stand up against the run game enough to warrant the type of contract some teams will throw at him.

I'm on record saying he will probably get the Willie Young treatment (three years for $9 million), but I could see it rising all the way to $4 million per year if a team is desperate enough.

5. OT Corey Hilliard

Duane Burleson/Associated Press

The offensive line killed Detroit's chances all season. Corey Hilliard provides a real "what if" question for the 2014 Lions because he would have been a stabilizing force in a year full of injuries.

Hilliard was only able to play the first game before broken bones in his foot landed him on the injured reserve list. The injury, however, wasn't enough to force the big man out of the season opener:

"

VIDEO: #Lions Jim Caldwell on toughness of Corey Hilliard who finished game with season-ending foot injury. http://t.co/8bP1xyRJZK

— Paula Pasche (@paulapasche) September 10, 2014"

Hilliard won the respect of teammates and fans by playing through a painful injury. He earned the respect of his coaches by playing so well despite the setback, giving up a single hurry during the performance.

The Lions will certainly carry Riley Reiff, LaAdrian Waddle and Cornelius Lucas on the roster next year. Hilliard has plenty of value as a veteran reserve who can step in without a drop off in production or protection.

4. CB Rashean Mathis

Jeff Haynes/Associated Press

The Lions have a lot of guys to retain if they're going to keep the good times rolling on defense.

Everybody talks about the defensive tackles because of the talent and money involved. The next name might not be as universal, but more often than not it's Rashean Mathis.

The veteran cornerback (12 seasons) rated as Detroit's best cornerback and earned the 12th-highest grade at the position. He's also known as a solid locker-room presence who helps the younger guys.

"

ICYMI: #Lions CB Darius Slay has a friend and mentor in Rashean Mathis. http://t.co/LRfNWJIFEH

— Paula Pasche (@paulapasche) August 1, 2014"

Darius Slay made a huge jump in 2014. He finished as the 19th-best cornerback by the same grading system, and the confidence he displayed gives Detroit real hope for his future.

Mathis' on-field impact combined with his effect on Slay and possibly Nevin Lawson is too important to place any further down this list. If the situation were different at defensive tackle, Mathis would have cracked the top three.

3. DT Nick Fairley

Rick Osentoski/Associated Press

I'll wait for those of you who jumped straight to the comments section before reading this slide to finish your rant before I continue.

We good? Alright then. Let's get down to business.

Nick Fairley is arguably the most talented player on Detroit's defense. Former defensive coordinator Gunther Cunningham raved about him way back in 2011 (h/t Michael David Smith of Pro Football Talk):

"

“This kid, he made a play Thursday that I made all the coaches show in their meeting,” Cunningham said. “It went beyond something I’ve ever seen from a big tackle. ... This guy is gifted athletically. He’s faster than [Ndamukong] Suh. I don’t know if you know that.”

"

You already know the normal knock against Fairley. He lacked consistency until this season, when Mayhew declined his fifth-year option. Then he hired a personal chef to manage his weight and, as Kyle Meinke of MLive explained, the effect was tremendous:

"

He has 14 tackles, one sack and one forced fumble through seven games. He's ranked by ProFootballFocus as the ninth-best defensive tackle in the game.

And the terror he's caused in offensive backfields has been magnificent.

Fairley has 16 QB hurries, a figure that is eclipsed by only one player in the world: Ndamukong Suh.

Yes, that Ndamukong Suh.

"

Fairley is probably going to garner plenty of suitors who won't be scared off easily. His immense talent will require more money than Detroit can afford if it wants to hold on to Suh. With that in mind, he takes a slide behind the next player on this list since Fairley is the clear second choice to Suh.

2. DT C.J. Mosley

Bob Leverone/Associated Press

No. C.J. Mosley is not a better player than Nick Fairley. That's not what this list was about.

The goal was to rank the biggest priorities for the Lions as they assessed their impending free agents. With that criterion in mind, Mosley is the right choice to be (SPOILER ALERT) Ndamukong Suh's runner-up.

We just outlined how it would be difficult to keep Fairley and Suh because another team is going to pay Fairley based on his potential. An annual salary above $5 million for the former first-rounder would be impossible to justify considering Suh, Calvin Johnson and Matthew Stafford already carry huge cap hits. 

But that means Detroit needs to find another starter to put next to the game's most dominant defensive tackle.

Mosley started half of the games this season, and while he can't penetrate like Fairley, he's extremely stout against the run. Check out his Pro Football Focus grades for the past three years:

Year	Overall	Run Defense	Pass Rush
2014	3.9	1.2	1.1
2013	5.5	5.5	0.2
2012	3.4	2.4	-1.0

The Lions have to retain somebody who can keep bodies off the linebackers and occasionally pressure a passer. 

Since reality and the free market dictates that Suh and Fairley's chances of playing together are remote, Mosley lands himself as Detroit's second biggest priority.

1. DT Ndamukong Suh

Paul Sancya/Associated Press

The top prioirity hasn't changed much since this time last year. Detroit can't let its best defensive player in at least a generation or two (if not ever) walk away when he's just hitting the peak of his powers.

And Mayhew knows it:

"

GM Martin Mayhew says Ndamukong Suh wants to be back, and Lions are willing to use franchise tag if necessary http://t.co/iCAH5AMMhJ

— Josh Katzenstein (@jkatzenstein) January 9, 2015"

The number for franchising Suh is $26.7 million, which when combined with the $9.7 million in dead money he already brings to the 2015 cap gives us a final number of $36.4 million. Not even Suh would be worth that amount. Mayhew was grasping for leverage when he made the statement.

But that doesn't mean Detroit won't widen his wallet to keep him in town. I predicted him besting J.J. Watt with a $119 million deal that stretches over seven years for an average of $17 million.

That might be on the high end, though we are talking about a defensive tackle with 37 quarterback hurries while boasting the second-best run grade. The cap hits will be easier to swallow as the cap continues to go up and Calvin Johnson's numbers start to decrease.

Plus, Mayhew will avoid being the guy who let Suh walk.

All salary-cap numbers are sourced from Spotrac.com. All advanced stats, grades and positional rankings are courtesy of Pro Football Focus and require a subscription.

Brandon Alisoglu is a Detroit Lions Featured Columnist who has written about the Lions on multiple sites. He also co-hosts a Lions-centric podcast, Lions Central Radio. Yell at him on Twitter about how wrong he is at @BrandonAlisoglu.