Alexander Gustafsson vs. Anthony Johnson: A Head-to-Toe Breakdown
Unlike title shots that go on to disappear as quickly as they are promised, the winner between Alexander Gustafsson and Anthony "Rumble" Johnson will be the next man to step into the cage with Jon Jones. You can bet on that.
This is all the better for Jones, who's been a vocal critic of the UFC's propensity for paving a nice path for his biggest threats as they make their way to the top of the mountain. But he can't say that here, as Dana White has created a matchup between the division's No. 1 and No. 3 contenders in Gustafsson and Johnson, respectively.
It's set to be a barnburner between the man who's proved himself as Jones' greatest threat and another who could prove a difficult test.
Scroll on as we break this fight down from head to toe.
Striking
1 of 5
We start where every MMA fight starts—on the feet.
It's no secret that this is where the two fighters have made their names. Gustafsson has 10 (T)KO victories in his eight-year career, while Rumble has 12. While the record books would have you believe that the latter fighter has been knocked out once, it's best you know that it was a loss due to an accidental eye poke that left Johnson incapable of continuing.
It's worth noting a majority of Johnson's knockout victories came while he was busy picking on fighters 35 pounds lighter than the ones he competes with today. Even then, removing the uppercut he landed on Antonio Rogerio Nogueira from my noggin isn't easy. He's a heavy hitter, and Gustafsson would be wise to understand.
But it wouldn't be fair to forget that Gustafsson is just as heavy of a hitter under a different guise. He may not harness the one-punch knockout power that his stockier opponent carries, but that doesn't mean his hands (and feet—you mustn't forget his feet) won't play as pivotal of a role in this matchup as they have in fights past.
This is easily the closest aspect of the fight, but you have to think Gustafsson is looking to use his range and advantageous footwork to shut down anything Johnson is seeking to bring with him overseas.
Edge: Gustafsson
Wrestling
2 of 5
Both men prefer to keep the fight standing. We know that.
Keeping the fight standing isn't always easy, especially when facing elite wrestlers. Somehow, Gustafsson and Johnson manage to turn most of their fights into slugfests on the feet.
Gustafsson walked in as the underdog in his championship fight, leaving most of his doubters to believe his incapacity as a wrestler would be his ultimate demise. It wasn't (not ultimately, at least). He managed to be the first man to take the champion down while only conceding one takedown of his own.
Johnson returned to the UFC with a six-fight winning streak intact. His momentum was so impressive the UFC felt he was deserving of a bout with perennial light heavyweight contender Phil Davis. Johnson's amateur wrestling accolades as a junior college national champion hardly compare to Davis' Division I national championship from 2008. Davis was supposed to walk forward against Johnson, get the fight to the ground and grind out another Phil Davis win.
He was supposed to, anyway.
When it's all said and done, both Gustafsson and Johnson are proven MMA wrestlers. But while Gustafsson has made a name for himself as a defensive wrestler, Johnson has proved time and time again that he can put most opponents on their backs.
Edge: Johnson
Submissions
3 of 5
There's not much of a contest in this category. More than anything, there is a bit of a warning here.
Of Gustafsson's 16 victories, three have come by way of submission. Each time, the Swede wrapped an arm around his opponent's neck and made him tap by rear-naked choke.
Ironically enough, Johnson has dropped three of his four losses by way of submission—all by rear-naked choke. Technically speaking, he's never lost any other way (except for the eye poke).
It's been a while since either man has dabbled in the art of grappling (because they strike so well), but don't be surprised to see Gustafsson try and move past his purple belt by earning his fourth submission victory in this one.
Edge: Gustafsson
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
X-Factors
4 of 5
Anthony Johnson: One-Punch Knockout Power
It's difficult to forget how hard Johnson hit Antonio Rogerio Nogueira. In all of Gustafsson's 18 fights, there isn't one opponent who's ever been capable of knocking opponents out quite like Rumble can. He hits hard. Unforgivingly hard.
Gustafsson may be the better overall striker, but there's no doubting Johnson only needs one solid shot to spoil the UFC's plans for what will likely be the biggest championship rematch in UFC light heavyweight history.
Alexander Gustafsson: Cardio
The Swede has only been five rounds once in his MMA career. But that's one more time than his opponent has, and that's huge. Gustafsson has proved he can go five full rounds while still maintaining some semblance of his abilities as an energized fighter.
Johnson, in all his power-punching glory, hasn't. It's hard to believe that his frame at 205 pounds (which is much thicker than his frame at welterweight) is capable of doing so.
Look for Gustafsson to drag Johnson into deeper waters here.
Prediction
5 of 5
Johnson has looked really good inside of the cage since he's returned. Still, he's poised to take on the best 205-pound fighter on the planet not named Jon Jones, which is quite the task for anybody.
Gustafsson is the rangier, more creative striker. He's not the better wrestler, but he made the champion struggle in his takedown attempts, which has to count for something. He also has the better cardio of the two, and that will play a substantial role in the twilight rounds of this fight.
There is also the massive home-field advantage the Swedish-born Gustafsson will have when fighting in front of what could be 40,000 of his countrymen at the Tele2 Arena in Stockholm, Sweden.
It's not looking like a good night for Johnson. Not at all.
Prediction: Gustafsson defeats Johnson via third-round TKO
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
