Predicting Final Destinations for the Hottest Names on the 2015 NBA Trade Market
NBA general managers have been working the phones at a frenetic pace this season and aren't showing signs of slowing down anytime soon.
While the Cleveland Cavaliers, Oklahoma City Thunder and Boston Celtics have been prominently displayed in transaction logs prior to the Feb. 19 trade deadline, there are a host of other teams interested in buying and selling in the weeks ahead.
Whether it's the Sacramento Kings suddenly making Nik Stauskas available, the Brooklyn Nets salivating over Thaddeus Young or the Charlotte Hornets seeking to unload Lance Stephenson, this season's final period of moving and shaking certainly won't lack for intrigue.
So as title contenders seek to boost their championship hopes and presumed postseason outsiders focus on retooling, there are plenty of potential deals to sift through in advance of the NBA's deadline day.
Honorable Mention: Miles Plumlee, C, Phoenix Suns
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Brandan Wright's arrival in the desert made Miles Plumlee expendable in a hurry.
According to ESPN.com's Marc Stein, "the Suns are working in conjunction with Plumlee's agent, Mark Bartelstein, to try to find a new home for the third-year center, who has seen his playing time steadily dwindle as the season has progressed."
Now slotted behind sophomore sensation Alex Len on the depth chart with regression hitting hard, Plumlee has struggled mightily to sustain the solid production that made him a regular starter on the Phoenix Suns' breakout 2013-14 squad.
Which teams could make a play for the 26-year-old, you ask? Well, it's hard to pinpoint right now.
The Los Angeles Clippers have a severe need for more rim protection but lack the assets necessary to make a play for the third-year center. The Oklahoma City Thunder are in the market for a center, too, but already rank No. 2 overall in opponents' field-goal percentage at the rim, per NBA.com, and are searching for steadier scoring presences on the low blocks.
Matters are complicated by the fact that Phoenix is reportedly targeting a future first-round pick in the deal, according to Stein, although that demand reeks of posturing considering his lackluster output and inconsistent track record.
Plumlee's trade value is aided by a rookie-scale deal that will pay out just $2.1 million next season, per BasketballInsiders.com, but without any firm confirmation regarding interested parties, it's difficult to peg a final landing spot.
Wilson Chandler, SF, Denver Nuggets
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The Denver Nuggets' disposal of Timofey Mozgov was supposed to signal the beginning of a fire sale.
But perhaps that was just general manager Tim Connelly's idea of capitalizing on the Cleveland Cavaliers' desperation.
After acquiring two first-round picks in that deal, Denver has actively shot down rumors of a potential roster teardown, although Nate Robinson was shipped to and subsequently waived by the Boston Celtics.
"Obviously calls come in, and we field calls," head coach Brian Shaw told reporters, according to The Denver Post's Christopher Dempsey. "But we're not saying, 'Hey, we're trying to get rid of Arron, we're trying to get rid of Wilson.' That's not the case at all. That's all we can really tell them."
Additionally, Dempsey noted that "Chandler said he has been told he will not be traded. He takes that knowledge with a grain of salt."
The Los Angeles Clippers and Oklahoma City Thunder were long considered potential suitors for Chandler's services. However, with L.A.'s cap flexibility tied up in some ugly deals and the Thunder previously addressing their need for wing scorers, the safe money is on Chandler sticking with Denver through the deadline.
Predicted Destination: Stays with Denver Nuggets
Reggie Jackson, PG, Oklahoma City Thunder
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Reggie Jackson's role with the Oklahoma City Thunder has been diminished significantly since Dion Waiters' arrival.
According to Basketball Insiders' Moke Hamilton, Jackson is averaging a shade over 20 minutes since the trade, which represents a 12-minute-per-game decrease prior to the Waiters trade.
And while that could be viewed as the precursor to a potential deal, it's more easily understood as Oklahoma City grooming Waiters for expanded responsibilities off the bench with Jackson's restricted free agency looming.
The New York Knicks are presumed to have interest in the Thunder point guard, according to ESPN New York's Ian Begley, but Phil Jackson's asset-starved roster isn't exactly conducive to a deal of this magnitude, as The Oklahoman's Jon Hamm pointed out:
"Prigioni has some shooting ability, posting a true shooting percentage of 58.5, but he’s also 37 years old. Calderon is a steady floor leader and an excellent 3-point shooter, but he’s also 33 years old, is slow of foot defensively, and has two more years and nearly $15 million left on his contract. The Thunder likely would have little interest in his $7.7 million cap hit in 2016-17.
The Knicks aren’t in position to deal any meaningful draft picks. Because the Knicks owe Toronto a 2016 first-round pick (as part of a bone-headed trade for Bargnani), they cannot deal their 2015 or 2017 first round selections. League rules prevent teams from trading away future first round picks in consecutive years.
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Considering point guard is already the league's deepest position and teams will be able to submit bids for Jackson's services on the restricted market this summer, it may be hard for Oklahoma City to find a willing taker at a relatively steep asking price.
Predicted Destination: Stays with Oklahoma City Thunder
Brook Lopez, C, Brooklyn Nets
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According to Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski, the Brooklyn Nets are putting trade discussions with the Oklahoma City Thunder regarding Brook Lopez on hold, citing dissatisfaction with the idea of a straight-up salary dump.
Within the framework of those talks, Oklahoma City would have acquired Lopez in exchange for Kendrick Perkins' expiring contract and a youngster like Jeremy Lamb, according to USA Today's Sam Amick.
As Wojnarowski acknowledges, though, a proposed deal is hardly dead if Oklahoma City becomes amenable to parting with more valuable, younger assets.
While Oklahoma City's offense is plenty lethal on the perimeter, it could use a boost in productivity in the paint. According to HoopsStats.com, the Thunder rank 29th in terms of scoring from players at the center position. Only the Phoenix Suns have been worse.
There's also a financial angle worth considering.
Sure, Lopez has a sizable player option for next season. But as Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes noted, "He'll make $15.7 million this year and has a player option for $16.7 million in 2015-16—good-sized figures, sure, but not cap crushers."
Even if Lopez did exercise the play option, he wouldn't hinder the Thunder's cap flexibility long term. And given how significant an upgrade he is over the offensively challenged Perkins, this is a risk worth taking.
Predicted Destination: Oklahoma City Thunder
Nik Stauskas, SG, Sacramento Kings
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It would have been hard to see this coming…is what no one is saying about the Sacramento Kings' reported placement of rookie Nik Stauskas on the trade block.
According to CBS Sports' Ken Berger, "Determined to find an upgrade to complement inside force DeMarcus Cousins, the Sacramento Kings are seeking frontcourt help in a trade and are willing to discuss first-round pick Nik Stauskas in the deal."
Of course, this all comes after the Kings foolishly passed up a chance to draft Noah Vonleh at No. 8 overall in favor of adding Stauskas at a position where 2013 lottery pick Ben McLemore already resided.
But back to the Kings' reported desires.
Per Berger, "The Kings want to pair Cousins with a frontline player who would fit with his post-up skills—either a stretch four or above-the-rim defender."
If that's the case, Milwaukee Bucks forward Ersan Ilyasova would seem to be a logical fit. And while it would be easy to scoff at the roughly $24 million he's due over the next three seasons, per BasketballInsiders.com, Berger reports the Kings could match incoming salaries up to $10-11 million if they show interest in packaging the expiring contracts of Derrick Williams and Reggie Evans with the 2014 lottery pick.
Now, Stauskas' obvious value to potential buyers is as a three-point marksman. But with Kendall Marshall out for the season after suffering a torn ACL and Milwaukee recently waiving Nate Wolters, the Bucks could use another guard to help bolster their backcourt as they make a push toward the playoffs.
And as Bleacher Report's Zach Buckley noted, "With Brandon Knight, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jabari Parker on the roster, Milwaukee should plan for what looks like a blindingly bright future. Buying low on Stauskas only adds to that illumination and potentially injects this backcourt with a potent scorer."
Factor in the presence of emerging power forward John Henson, and Ilyasova becomes slightly more dispensable as the Bucks seek to stockpile assets in hopes of morphing into a contender after displaying considerable improvement this season.
Predicted Destination: Milwaukee Bucks
Lance Stephenson, SG, Charlotte Hornets
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For a few brief moments, it appeared as though Lance Stephenson was Brooklyn-bound.
However, that deal quickly died as the Brooklyn Nets re-evaluated their motivations in making a potential three-team trade with the Charlotte Hornets and Oklahoma City Thunder, according to The Charlotte Observer's Rick Bonnell.
It'd be hard to blame the Nets front office, too.
Stephenson has been the on-court personification of a dumpster fire this year, averaging 10.2 points on 38.7 percent shooting from the field and 16.4 percent shooting from three. According to Basketball-Reference.com, Stephenson is one of 13 players averaging better than 10 points who's also shooting worse than 40 percent from the field.
Buying low on a dynamic talent like Stephenson is intriguing in theory, but it could be horribly risky in practice. Not only is he an unpredictable and enigmatic handful, but Stephenson's on the books for $9 million next season before a team option worth $9.4 million kicks in before the 2016-17 season, per BasketballInsiders.com.
Considering prospective buyers can avoid danger by waiting to trade for Stephenson when he's essentially an impending free agent next season, interested parties would be wise to stay away for the time being.
Predicted Destination: Stays with Charlotte Hornets
Thaddeus Young, PF, Minnesota Timberwolves
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This is a fascinating case.
Not only could Thaddeus Young be a theoretical target of the Sacramento Kings, as Bleacher Report's Zach Buckley outlined, but there's been substantiated interest in the Minnesota Timberwolves forward from the Brooklyn Nets.
The Kings are in need of a more versatile frontcourt sidekick to pair with DeMarcus Cousins, but Young doesn't stretch the floor enough for a deal to be worth Sacramento's while.
However, according to ESPN The Magazine's Chris Broussard, "Sources tell ESPN.com's Marc Stein that the Nets strongly covet Minnesota forward Thaddeus Young and, if they commit to trading Lopez to the Thunder, are likely to try to recruit the Wolves as a third-team participant or simply offer Perkins' expiring deal for Young in a separate transaction."
Since Young owns a player option worth $9.9 million for next season, according to BasketballInsiders.com, the Timberwolves could unload him and receive an expiring deal plus a potential sweetener as a way to protect against the possibility of Young walking this summer.
Now that Young and Minnesota aren't looking like a long-term match, it's in the Timberwolves' best interest to extract some value on the open market while they still can and take Brooklyn up on its offer.
Predicted Destination: Brooklyn Nets
All statistics current as of Jan. 18 and courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com unless noted otherwise.
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