AFC Championship Game 2015: Live Stream, Odds Guide for Colts vs. Patriots

Nobody said the path the AFC Championship Game would be normal, as Trent Richardson and missed flights take center stage in the waning hours before kickoff.

Don't fret, bettors—Andrew Luck fit his beard on the flight to Foxborough.

In all seriousness, Richardson, the former starting tailback, will not be with the team, per Zak Keefer of The Indianapolis Star. Offensive lineman Xavier Nixon is the guy who managed to miss the team flight, per Stephen Holder of The Indianapolis Star.

With any luck (get it?), this is the end of wild news in the hours leading up to the encounter that features a Super Bowl berth swinging in the balance.

Fingers crossed, it is time to analyze the latest odds.

2015 AFC Championship Odds and Schedule

Date	Matchup	Start Time (ET)	Network	Live Stream	Odds (O/U)
Sunday, January 18	Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots	6:30 p.m.	CBS	CBSSports.com	NE -7 (54)

Odds courtesy of Odds Shark and accurate as of 9 p.m. ET on Jan. 17.

Odds Guide

Richardson's reduction in playing time is part of what makes this big line so difficult to break down. 

Once the front office decided to admit its mistake, Daniel Herron took over in the backfield.

A former Cincinnati castoff—which may not be fair, as most backs would not break through in the Queen City these days given the talent on the depth chart—Herron ran for 56 yards and a score against his former team in the Wild Card Round. He then ran for 63 more and another score against the Denver Broncos in the divisional round.

As Ben Volin of The Boston Globe notes, Herron's job is secure regardless of whether Richardson makes the trip:

This makes things confusing. These two met in Week 11, a 42-20 snoozefest as the Colts literally ran for 19 yards on 16 carries.

Thank Tom Brady for a questionable line, too. He threw for a pair of scores in the rout earlier this season, but as Scott Kacsmar of Football Outsiders details, the title game is not exactly kind to one of the best ever to lace up the cleats:

What's that? Las Vegas must be confident in New England for good reason?

Well of course. Ponder this—Luck touts a 53.8 completion percentage with two more interceptions than touchdowns over the course of three career appearances against the Patriots.

Luck is facing many questions one weekend removed from felling Peyton Manning at home, his track record against the Patriots chief among them.

"I'd like to think I am a better quarterback and would like to think we're a better team," Luck said, per ESPN.com. "We are well equipped to handle the unknown, the unforeseen."

Well what else? How about Herron, who remains a bit of an unknown after a few games of solid work, somewhat diminished by two postseason fumbles. The Patriots will be aware of this and potentially force extra possessions for Brady.

Do not forget Bill Belichick, either, one of the greatest to ever do it, who blindsided the football world in Week 11 by unleashing Jonas Gray for 201 yards and four scores. It is impossible to know what he dreams up this time around, but odds are it will put the home team at an even bigger advantage.

As for the over/under, it seems right on the spot, although it is important to note that the last three encounters between the two sides has resulted in some gaudy totals, illustrated by ESPN Stats & Info:

Sloppy weather conditions may dampen over expectations, but a strong New England ground game—especially with LeGarrette Blount on board, too—means the Patriots will have few issues exploiting a weak rush defense if the game trends in that direction.

The Patriots cover the spread and the game going over is the tandem that makes sense. Parlay that for bigger payouts if desired. Brady is not going to drop this one at home, even if Luck seems like a quarterback of destiny.

For at least one more year, Luck takes a back seat to at least one great in the conference.

Prediction: Patriots 38, Colts 30

Stats courtesy of NFL.com. Advanced metrics via Pro Football Focus.