Detroit Lions Free Agency: Projecting Contract Offers for Detroit
Detroit Lions general manager Martin Mayhew has the fans on his side. Two playoff appearances in four years has laid the foundation for future success, but he has to kill this offseason to keep the Lions competitive, and it all begins with free agency.
Whomever Detroit signs will set the table for the draft. Ideally, the team would like to have few, if any, needs by the time April 30 rolls around so it would be free to take the best guy available regardless of position.
To get to that point, Mayhew will have to work a little magic with the salary cap. If he cuts veterans Stephen Tulloch, Reggie Bush and Jason Jones, he'll free up an additional $8.05 million, per Spotrac.com. Mayhew puts his cap estimate at $143 million, while others range from $138.6 to $141.8 million, but we'll trust the general manager's take on it.
"Mayhew said he expects the cap to go up about $10 million this year, which would put it $143 million range
— Dave Birkett (@davebirkett) January 8, 2015"
That gives Detroit approximately $31 million to get this roster in top shape come fall. Let's take a spin around the market and predict how the offers will shape up for key Lions and others available in free agency.
Quarterbacks Dan Orlovsky and Kellen Moore
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Let's tackle these two as a single entity because there's not much separating them in terms of production. While the contract numbers won't match because they have dissimilar years of service, the basic foundation of their offers will be the same.
Neither player saw a single snap during the regular season or playoffs. Matthew Stafford has proven durable since his early days by starting 64 straight games since the beginning of 2011.
The coaching staff is apparently comfortable with Orlovsky since head coach Jim Caldwell brought him back to Detroit after working with him previously in Indianapolis. That doesn't make him necessary to the team's plans, but the other options on the market don't offer much of an improvement (Mark Sanchez, 35-year-old Shaun Hill, etc.) or could be too pricey for the intended position (Brian Hoyer).
Moore will be a different question to ponder. The staff inherited him from the previous regime (although he was signed by Martin Mayhew) and he wasn't able to take over the backup spot despite a better preseason performance than Orlovsky.
Regardless, neither player has done anything to earn more than a minimum offer. That means Moore could get $660,000 for this year, per Justin Rogers of Mlive.com, and Orlovsky won't receive much more than the $920,000 he earned last year.
Offer: One Year for the Veteran's Minimum
Tackle Corey Hilliard
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Corey Hilliard seems to be an afterthought these days, with former undrafted free agents LaAdrian Waddle and Cornelius Lucas holding down the right tackle spot from early September on.
I'm betting the front office and coaching staff doesn't think so.
Hilliard gutted his way through the season opener after starter Waddle went down early. The broken bones in his foot ended his season, and fans' memories went away along with him.
Hilliard can be a valuable reserve for Detroit or possibly a starter for someone else. It'll all depend on if someone feels he can be a starter.
Considering the other options available to Detroit at right tackle along with the bigger holes at defensive tackle, guard and possibly defensive end, Hilliard might seek more money elsewhere. The Lions will make a play for him, though, most likely offering somewhere around $1.5 million a year for two to three years.
That number would represent a slight raise over his $1.285 million he made last year and keep him right in the middle of the pack for right tackles. Other than him, it's difficult to see Detroit offering any other tackle that kind of money with three possible starters already on the roster.
Offer: Two Years for $3 Million
Guard Mike Iupati
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General manager Martin Mayhew isn't likely to give Rob Sims a new deal. The veteran's play has been declining for years, bottoming out with his first negative grade for a season since 2008, per Pro Football Focus (subscription required).
With Sims likely out and center Dominic Raiola probably following closely behind, Detroit has some work to do on the interior of the line. Travis Swanson should take over at center. Things are a little less clear at guard.
There is the possibility that Detroit kicks Riley Reiff to left guard and then either drafts a left tackle or uses one of the tackles currently on the roster.
Or the Lions could turn to free agency and nab the top guard on the market—Mike Iupati. The soon-to-be former 49er has been a mainstay at the front of one of the league's most consistent rushing attacks (fourth this year).
But how many suitors will the 27-year-old guard have?
"Iupati. Frankin. Boling. Carpenter obvious choices. MT @Brendang2392: who are some of the OGs you eyeing up for the Bills to explore in FA?
— Chris Trapasso (@ChrisTrapasso) January 16, 2015"
Every guard-needy team has Iupati near the top of its target list. And the price is going to be too high for a guard that ranked 55th in pass protection among guard in 2014, giving up seven sacks and 22 quarterback hurries.
Detroit will at least talk to him. Its offer won't be enough, as Detroit is likely to offer only $20 million over four years, which would make him the 15th-highest-paid guard. Another team is going to offer much more than that.
Offer: Four Years for $20 Million
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Guard Clint Boling
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The better option that was mentioned in that last tweet—Clint Boling—is the more realistic guard.
Boling is one year younger than Mike Iupati and doesn't have the same track record of excellence. For that reason, he probably won't have as many suitors so his price shouldn't be as insufferable.
"Clint Boling's PFF combined score from '12-14 is +20.5 overall, +9.7 pass blocker and +5.1 run blocking. Great? No. Solid, yes. Re-sign him.
— Josh Kirkendall (@Josh_Kirkendall) January 16, 2015"
He also did a better job pass protecting than Iupati. Boling was only responsible for 10 hurries and a pair of sacks in 2014, which would benefit Matthew Stafford greatly.
Detroit's offer should be enough to garner some interest from Boling. At one point, Rob Sims received $14.2 million over four years. That offer will be trumped by kicking the average up to $5 million per year with an extra season to boot.
Offer: Five Years for $25 Million
Kicker Matt Prater
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This shouldn't take much time to figure out for either side.
Detroit badly needed a kicker after going though both Nate Freese and Alex Henery in six games. They combined to make just four of 12 attempts. The situation was dire.
Matt Prater was a former Pro Bowler on the outs due to some personal issues with alcohol. He looked shaky in his first few attempts with the Lions but settled in to knock 21 of his 26 attempts through the uprights.
For his part, Prater wants to remain where he's found his new groove:
"Lions could have found their future kicker in Matt Prater, who already told his agent he wants to stay in the D. http://t.co/kuSXhaeDpd
— Tim Twentyman (@ttwentyman) January 8, 2015"
Considering the obvious mutual interest and the fact that Detroit gave him a chance when others might have shied away, Detroit should be able to procure him for a slight discount. The Lions should offer him three years and $4.5 million, making him the 16th-highest-paid kicker.
Offer: Three Years for $4.5 Million
Cornerback Rashean Mathis
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Both of the Lions cornerbacks graded out in the top 20 by Pro Football Focus' grading system. There's no reason things can't keep rolling since Darius Slay will be around for the next decade or so, but Rashean Mathis might a different issue.
He finished his second one-year deal with Detroit in January. Not only has he been a quality addition on the field, he's also been a mentor in the locker room, and there's reason to believe that he wants to be rewarded accordingly:
"Rashean Mathis smiled each time a reporter came up and asked, "One more year." He said, "I don't know why it has to be just one."
— Justin Rogers (@Justin_Rogers) January 5, 2015"
Mathis has earned the right to ask for whatever he wants. And Detroit will be smart enough to give him the two years he seeks albeit at an age-appropriate price.
The second year of the contract either won't be guaranteed or will be voidable by the team with minimal dead money. There isn't a comparable deal on the market, but this one is likely to be worth $3 million total, which would be a $500,000 raise over his current salary.
The money doesn't seem to be worthy of such a high-caliber corner. However, no other team is going to shell out big bucks for a 36-year-old cornerback after seeing how quickly Champ Bailey lost it.
That's why you won't find another free-agent option here. Detroit can't spread money to every position if it's going to retool or retain the defensive line. Martin Mayhew will add another young talent in the draft to develop behind Mathis for the year.
Offer: Two Years for $3 Million
Defensive End George Johnson
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So much energy has been spent on Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley that George Johnson isn't feeling any love. Of course, that's nothing new for the former Viking and Buc.
Johnson broke out in his fourth year with six sacks. He even graded out at the head of the pack—but not ahead—at 24th out of 59 qualifying defensive ends, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required).
Willie Young was in a very similar situation a year ago, waiting on Suh to sign a contact and set Deroit's budget for the offseason after a foundation-laying season. Chicago eventually inked him to a three-year, $9-million contract that seemed appropriate (Jason Jones received a similar deal for three years and $9.5 million).
The same situation could be brewing for Johnson. Since we have Jason Jones on the market in this scenario, it's easy to see Detroit offering the same type of money with the chance to develop more under Kris Kocurek and Jim Washburn before somebody else ups the ante:
"If Bills can't resign Jerry Hughes, 2 FAs fit as replacements Jason Worilds & less expensive Lions George Johnson. Hughes wants big payday
— NFL_DRAFT_Bites (@NFLDraftBites) January 10, 2015"
Johnson turned fans' heads with his ability to pressure the passer. Other teams have taken notice, but his performance wasn't so devastating that he'll be considered a must-add. The most this offer could improve for him is $12 million over three years.
Offer: Three Years for $9 Million
Defensive Tackle C.J. Mosley
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It's tough to find a better third defensive tackle than C.J. Mosley. The big man graded out as the 26th-best defensive tackle by eating up double-teams and stuffing holes in the run game.
What's more telling is that when Nick Fairley went down with a knee injury in London, there was little to no drop-off in the rushing defense statistics.
"C.J. Mosley will start at DT for Nick Fairley, his first start since Week 2 last year. #Lions
— Josh Katzenstein (@jkatzenstein) November 9, 2014"
Obviously, everything is going to rely on how things go with Fairley and Ndamukong Suh. Mosley is certainly worthy of a new contract with Detroit and could prove a more cost-effective option than Fairley. But if Martin Mayhew opts to keep both of his former first-rounders, he'll have no choice but to go cheaper than Mosley to round out the rotation (Andre Fluellen maybe?).
Assuming the Lions don't bring back both of the above, Mosley will be in line for a slight bump in pay to compensate for his consistency. He should be looking at least $3 million a year, which would tie him at 25th for the highest-paid defensive tackles with Chris Baker and Clinton McDonald.
Offer: Three Years for $9 Million
Defensive Tackle Nick Fairley
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Now we get into the nitty gritty of the impending free agents.
You'll notice there haven't been many offers that have gone out to those that haven't already worn the Honolulu Blue. That isn't a mistake. Most of the pieces are in place for a long postseason run, and the team only needs slight tweaking and a solid draft to maintain the winning percentage.
Now, Martin Mayhew just has to retain the right pieces. It's unknown if Fairley is one of those yet, but he certainly wants to be, which should mean something:
"Nick Fairley wouldn't comment on his pending free agency. Only thing he'd say: If he has his way, he's back in Detroit.
— Kyle Meinke (@kmeinke) January 5, 2015"
The bugaboo is whether he can stay focused when he doesn't have a contract on the line. The only two years when he consistently played well were his senior season at Auburn and this year.
He can, however, point to the maturity he displayed when the Lions declined his fifth-year option. Instead of sulking, he hired a personal chef to keep his weight in check and said all of the right things.
It'll be tough for the Lions to bring back both Fairley and Ndamukong Suh. And just the mention of cutting Jason Jones loose has brought a bit of vitriol my way:
"@BrandonAlisoglu@DavidEnglander@NateWilliamsNFL if it's not broke don't fix it. It's not complicated. There is NO sane reason to cut JJ
"
""— Mork (@mork1215) January 18, 2015""
But Mayhew will have plenty of conversations with Fairley's agent. The offer won't be more than $5.5 million a year for three years to give him the same compensation as Kendall Langford. It's underwhelming. Still, trusting Fairley with more money when the best defensive tackle in the last 10 years is in limbo isn't prudent.
It's highly doubtful Fairley would take an offer for more years without more money since he was well on his way to proving his actual worth. Even the three years used here might be too long, but it's even more unlikely that he takes a one-year prove-it deal.
Another team is going to jump on his potential, ignore the past and give him a deal worthy of a top-10 talent. We just don't know if that team will get the same performance in return.
Offer: Three Years for $16.5 Million
Defensive Tackle Ndamukong Suh
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The entire Lions' offseason will be dependent on what happens with Ndamukong Suh. Guys like Nick Fairley and C.J. Mosley take greater precedence if Suh fiies the coop, and you can rest assured that Jason Jones will be kept to help strengthen the rush defense should Suh find work elsewhere.
But the Lions are going to do everything possible to keep the game's best defensive tackle and arguably the second-best defensive player in the league. J.J. Watt's deal was "limited" to $16.7 million because he didn't try to test the market. Everything points to Suh listening to other offers, but both sides do have a common interest:
"GM Martin Mayhew says Ndamukong Suh wants to be back, and Lions are willing to use franchise tag if necessary http://t.co/iCAH5AMMhJ
— Josh Katzenstein (@jkatzenstein) January 9, 2015"
Sentimentality alone isn't going to keep Suh in Detroit. It's going to take a lot of money and none of the offers highlighted so far—save for Fairley's, which I don't think will work anyway—will limit Martin Mayhew's ability to offer top dollar to a top-notch player.
Suh is going to trump Watt's offer. Part of it is a point of pride, while the other is the simple economics of demand and supply. By going to the open market, Suh is going to garner more attention and offers than Watt, so the price will rise.
That won't deter the Lions from putting deal on the table worth at least $119 million over seven years. The average of $17 million makes him the highest-paid defensive player as of today and should be enough to match or exceed any other offer.
Offer: Seven Years for $119 Million
All salary-cap numbers are sourced from Spotrac.com. All advanced stats, grades and positional rankings are courtesy of Pro Football Focus and require a subscription.
Brandon Alisoglu is a Detroit Lions Featured Columnist who has written about the Lions on multiple sites. He also co-hosts a Lions-centric podcast, Lions Central Radio. Yell at him on Twitter about how wrong he is @BrandonAlisoglu.
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