UNC Basketball: Wake Forest Trap Game Crucial to Tar Heels' ACC Success

There are no easy games in the ACC, just ones that seem a little easier. North Carolina's trip to Wake Forest might appear to be one of those, but if the Tar Heels treat Wednesday's trip to nearby Winston-Salem like anything less than the most important game of the year, there's room for trouble.

UNC (14-4, 4-1) takes a three-game win streak into Lawrence Joel Coliseum for a game that has "trap" written all over it. The reasons for this are many:

Lack of focus: Sunday's 68-53 home win over Virginia Tech counts as much as any other victory, but it was by no means pretty. Coach Roy Williams called it an "ugly win," per The Associated Press (via Fox Sports), a performance that prompted him to back off on an earlier pledge to not practice on Monday and instead add another workout to tinker with things.

Since losing to Notre Dame on Jan. 5, the Heels pulled out a pair of close wins over good teams (vs. Louisville, at North Carolina State) where the focus was strong and the effort was crisp. That wasn't the case against Virginia Tech, a game the Heels controlled throughout but didn't look pretty doing so.

A similar effort at Wake Forest is likely to end in a loss.

Overconfidence: The Demon Deacons (9-9, 1-4) don't have the record to show for it, but they've played quite well under first-year coach Danny Manning.

Wake's ACC losses have included ones at home to Duke and Louisville, both of which it led during the second half, as well as an overtime loss at Syracuse on Jan. 13. Its other conference loss came by 13 at North Carolina State on Dec. 6 during the tail end of a three-game losing streak.

"The Deacs played well in stretches in all four (ACC) games and were a bit unlucky to not finish at least one of the four, any of which would stand as their best win of the season," wrote Bobby Hundley of GoHeels.com.

UNC has mostly avoided the problem that plagues some teams, that of playing up (or down) to the level of competition. Still, with the results Wake has had and the desire to get that signature win under Manning, feeling too confident in this one could hurt the Heels.

Road woes: UNC is 3-1 in true road games, its only loss coming at Kentucky in a game it actually played relatively well in. The Heels are 2-0 on the road in ACC play and have shown a resolve when outside the Dean Smith Center that bodes well for the rest of the season.

Most of Carolina's starters actually have better numbers—in terms of average scoring and field-goal shooting—in road games than for the season overall:

Rich Barnes/Getty Images

At some point, though, UNC is going to fall victim to the rigors of playing on the road in the ACC. Duke, Louisville and Syracuse have all dropped a conference road game, so falling away from home seems inevitable. 

Timing: UNC is in the middle of a stretch of six games with four of them at home, and the remaining three contests should result in wins. After Wake, the Heels host Boston College on Saturday and then Syracuse two days later. The schedule can allow for Carolina to get on a nice run heading into the second half, but a slip-up before that can eradicate all momentum.

That is what happened in early December, when after rebounding from a loss to Butler to open the Battle 4 Atlantis UNC won back-to-back games against UCLA and Florida to come home with some confidence and momentum. Then a lethargic performance occurred at home against Iowa, and the Heels' surge was thwarted.

Teams like Wake Forest and others on the bottom half of the ACC look to take advantage of all these scenarios to steal wins here and there. UNC fell into a few of those traps last season, including when it opened conference play with a loss at Wake Forest, and must avoid doing so here in order to continue moving forward.