UNC Basketball: Must-Win Games Remaining on Tar Heels' Schedule

With its 68-53 win Sunday over Virginia Tech, North Carolina (14-4, 4-1) remains in the upper group of teams fighting for ACC supremacy. Unbeaten Virginia leads the pack at 5-0, while Notre Dame is 5-1 and Syracuse sits at 4-1.

There are still seven weeks left in the regular season, but as the cream starts to rise to the top in the ACC, we can see who the Tar Heels' main competition is going to be for the league title. And we can also start eyeing which games on the remaining schedule are considered the most important.

All 13 have their own importance, but certain ones stand out more than others. You could call them "must-wins" in that they'll have the biggest impact on whether UNC can remain in contention for the regular-season ACC title or if the Heels will find themselves just hoping for a good conference tournament seed when March comes around.

Here's our look at the must-win games remaining for Carolina in 2014-15.

Jan. 21 at Wake Forest

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UNC has won three in a row and eight of nine, including three road wins during that span. To say the Heels are starting to hit their stride would be fair.

That being said, UNC could also be in jeopardy of a trap game, and Wake Forest has the capability to spring that trip.

The Demon Deacons (9-9, 1-4) have looked far better than their record would indicate. The lone ACC win came against last-place Georgia Tech, but their more impressive performances have been in the losses. They led against both Louisville and Duke in the second half, only to lose by nine and eight points, respectively, and last time out Wake fell by three at Syracuse.

First-year coach Danny Manning doesn't have much talent to work with, other than 6'9" junior forward Devin Thomas, but he's getting the most out of this team. A loss to Wake wouldn't kill the Tar Heels, but it would put them two back of Virginia in the loss column while also squelching all momentum gained over the past few weeks.

Jan. 26 vs. Syracuse

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This will be UNC's first matchup down the stretch with one of the teams it's competing against for the top of the ACC standings. Syracuse (13-5, 4-1) won its first four games in conference play but then lost at Clemson on Saturday.

The Orange have had to regroup after freshman Chris McCullough was lost for the season with a torn ACL suffered on Jan. 11. The 6'10" forward was averaging 9.3 points, 6.9 rebounds and 2.1 blocks per game, and with him out of the lineup, Syracuse has had to turn to sophomore Tyler Roberson. He's struggled in his two starts, making five of 17 shots but pulling down 10 or more rebounds in each game.

Syracuse's 2-3 zone stymied Carolina last season, and it remains one of the best defensive weapons in the country. With UNC starting to find its touch on outside shooting, particularly from guard Marcus Paige, it will be key to continue hitting jump shots when unable to penetrate the zone.

Jan. 31 at Louisville

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Rematch time.

UNC's biggest conference win came on Jan. 10, when it rallied from a 13-point deficit in the final nine minutes for a 72-71 victory. Marcus Paige's running layup banked in with less than nine seconds left for the game-winning score.

Louisville (15-3, 3-2) has since lost again, falling at home to Duke on Saturday, which puts it two games behind Virginia and in a tie for sixth place with Duke and Pittsburgh. But to assume the Cardinals and their talented lineup are out of the race would be foolish.

They'll be looking for payback in a couple of weeks when UNC makes its first visit to Louisville since 1999.

Feb. 2 vs. Virginia

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To be the best, you've got to beat the best. UNC only gets one regular-season crack at ACC leader Virginia (17-0, 5-0), and it will be in Chapel Hill, where the Cavaliers haven't won since 2010.

Virginia is one of two unbeaten teams in the country—along with Kentucky—and it is winning with some of the most swarming defense in Division I. The Cavs rank No. 1 overall in scoring defense (50.4 points per game) and second in field-goal defense (33.8 percent), yet still have an efficient offense that shoots 48.1 percent.

UNC has actually fared well against the best defensive teams it has faced this season, shooting a relatively high 45 percent against Kentucky, the nation's top team in field-goal defense. Yet Virginia has completely taken opponents out of their offensive games, such as holding Notre Dame to a season-low 56 points.

Feb. 14 at Pittsburgh

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Pittsburgh (13-5, 3-2) is one of those teams that is far better at home than when on the road, and UNC only faces the Panthers in the Steel City this season. Pitt is 9-1 this year at the Petersen Events Center, an arena the Tar Heels haven't played in before.

UNC is 3-1 in true road games this season—the only loss coming at Kentucky—and has seemed to play as more of a complete team when away from home. Yet most of the road locales haven't been particularly hostile, but going to Pitt will change that.

The Tar Heels have already lost a home game, falling to Notre Dame, which limits the number of road losses they can afford in order to stay in the conference title race. This is one of the road matchups that could go either way, but UNC needs to come out on top if it hopes to contend.

Feb. 28 at Miami (Florida)

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Miami (12-5, 2-2) is one of the most dangerous teams in the ACC, because you don't know which Hurricanes team you're going to get.

Will it be the one that ran over Duke in Cameron Indoor Stadium last week, ending the Blue Devils' 41-game home win streak, and also took Virginia to double-overtime on Jan. 3 before losing? Or will it be the one that fell apart down the stretch in losing Saturday at Notre Dame, showing too much of the complacency that plagued Miami in a blowout home loss to Eastern Kentucky in December?

The fact that there's even a possibility of the former re-emerging makes this a major challenge. And this game's placement on the schedule, on the front end of a road trip that ends at Georgia Tech and is in the final 10 days of the regular season, could lead to a stumble.

March 7 vs. Duke

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Every matchup between UNC and Duke is considered a must-win for both sides, and this is the second of two regular-season meetings. The expectations to win in Durham aren't as high as doing so on the home court, though this series is one where the location hasn't made much of a difference.

Duke (15-2, 3-2) won in Chapel Hill in 2012 and 2013, and UNC took the game at Cameron Indoor Stadium in 2012.

This will be the regular-season finale for both teams, and though Duke is currently two games back of Virginia in the standings, there's a good shot that one or both will still be in contention for the ACC title. Or, at least, both will be fighting hard for a higher seed in the conference tournament, which will add to the significance of this latest edition of college basketball's best rivalry.

Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.