Colts vs Patriots: Updated Odds, Stat Predictions for AFC Championship Game 2015

It shouldn't come as a surprise that the New England Patriots are 6.5-point favorites over the Indianapolis Colts in the AFC Championship Game on Sunday, per Odds Shark. The Pats are the top seed, and they have dominated the Colts throughout the short Andrew Luck era.

The Colts' young franchise quarterback has had an answer for almost every exam the NFL has thrown at him, but he's yet to solve Professor Bill Belichick. Bleacher Report's Matt Bowen has some ideas on how Luck and the Colts can attack the Patriots' Cover 1 scheme.

In three games (two in the regular season and one in the postseason), Luck has thrown an average of 2.6 interceptions per contest. That's a big reason why the Colts have come up on the short end of the stick each time.

When Belichick speaks about Luck, he talks with the same glowing respect that everyone else does. Per Lee Schechter of ESPNBoston.com, Belichick said this about Luck during a press conference Wednesday: “He's got a lot of strengths, no weaknesses. He's got a great future in front of him. He's already done a lot in the time that he's been in the league, and I'm sure by the time he gets done he can pass a lot of guys by."

Classy and respectful stuff, right? Still, you have to wonder if in the back of his football-genius head, Belichick is thinking: "But I still own the kid."

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Who could blame the Hoodie for thinking this way? It's not as if the past meetings have been very competitive. Per ESPN Stats & Info, the Colts and Luck haven’t even been able to stick close to New England:

The Patriots' recent dominance over the Colts goes beyond Luck's inability to find success against Belichick's defense and even deeper than Tom Brady's steadiness. Much of the reason New England has been so tough for Indy to handle is centered around the Pats' ability to run the football.

In the three aforementioned games, the Patriots have averaged 198.3 yards per game on the ground. In the playoffs last season, running back LeGarrette Blount rumbled for 166 yards and four scores on 24 carries. When the two teams met in November, Jonas Gray had his 15 minutes of fame.

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Gray went for 201 yards and four touchdowns on 37 carries. The first time the two teams met with Luck under center, a balanced effort from the Pats' backfield tallied 115 yards on the ground and two touchdowns in November 2012.

I'm no football genius like The Hoodie, but it sounds like the Pats are whipping the Colts at the line of scrimmage. Combine that with Luck's struggles and the Patriots' universal dominance at home this season (9-0 counting the postseason), and you have a pretty lopsided three-game series. Can the Colts turn it around Sunday?

No, and here's why.

Key Stats

The two biggest statistical categories will be Luck's turnovers and the Patriots' rushing yards. Indianapolis will come up on the losing end in both.

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If Luck had been taking great care of the ball of late and getting better protection, this might be his time to break through against Belichick. Only neither has been the case. Luck threw two picks in the win over the Denver Broncos in the divisional round.

While Luck wasn't sacked in the game, he was hit four times and was under pressure at points. You better believe Belichick will devise a way to make Luck uncomfortable. That discomfort will lead to the same types of mistakes that Luck has been making against the Pats in previous meetings.

Bet on two more picks Sunday from Luck.

As for the run game, Belichick knows the Colts defense will be geared up to stop it. He and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels may come out passing heavy early to force Indy to respect Brady. Once they have softened up Indy's defense, New England will go back to the power run game that has dominated the Colts recently.

Expect another 150-plus-yard performance from New England's run game and the team's sixth trip to the Super Bowl under Belichick.