NFL Draft 2015: Analyzing 1st-Round Projections After Bowl Games

We've finally reached the point of no return for the nation's best collegiate players. Thursday's deadline for underclassmen entries into the 2015 NFL draft all but finalized the field of players who will be taking their talents to Sundays, exempting the select few who will pull their name at the last minute.

There weren't many surprises. Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, Amari Cooper and most other notables declared their intention to come out early. Among potential first-round choices, Notre Dame offensive tackle Ronnie Stanley, who told reporters his decision Wednesday, was probably the most notable to stick around. He had a legitimate shot at sneaking into the top 15 had he impressed in workouts.

Looking elsewhere, the remainder of the first round largely looks as expected. Mariota and Winston will battle for the No. 1 overall pick. Nebraska's Randy Gregory and USC's Leonard Williams will vie to be the top defensive lineman off the board. Not one human being on the planet knows how to properly gauge Dorial Green-Beckham's draft stock.

Over the next three months we'll get the answers to those questions and many others. For now, we have a whole heaping pile of informed speculation to sift through.

With that in mind, let's take a quick look at the latest expert predictions for how the first round will shake out. 

(Note: Some of these expert mocks were published before the deadline for underclassmen.)

Pick; Team	Matt Miller, Bleacher Report (Jan. 8)	Dan Kadar, SB Nation (Jan. 12)	Chris Burke, Sports Illustrated (Jan. 14)	Rob Rang, CBS Sports (Jan. 11)
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers	QB Jameis Winston, FSU	QB Jameis Winston, FSU	QB Marcus Mariota, Oregon	DL Leonard Williams, USC
2. Tennessee Titans	DL Leonard Williams, USC	QB Marcus Mariota, Oregon	DE Randy Gregory, Nebraska	QB Jameis Winston, FSU
3. Jacksonville Jaguars	DE Randy Gregory, Nebraska	DL Leonard Williams, USC	DL Leonard Williams, USC	DE Randy Gregory, Nebraska
4. Oakland Raiders	OT La'el Collins, LSU	WR Amari Cooper, Alabama	WR Amari Cooper, Alabama	WR Amari Cooper, Alabama
5. Washington Redskins	SS Landon Collins, Alabama	DE Randy Gregory, Nebraska	OT Brandon Scherff, Iowa	OT Brandon Scherff, Iowa
6. New York Jets	QB Marcus Mariota, Oregon	WR DeVante Parker, Louisville	DE Vic Beasley, Clemson	QB Marcus Mariota, Oregon
7. Chicago Bears	DE Shane Ray, Missouri	OT Brandon Scherff, Iowa	SS Landon Collins, Alabama	OLB Bud Dupree, Kentucky
8. Atlanta Falcons	OLB Bud Dupree, Kentucky	DE Dante Fowler, Florida	DE Shane Ray, Missouri	DE Shane Ray, Missouri
9. New York Giants	DE Dante Fowler, Florida	OT La'el Collins, LSU	LB Shaq Thompson, Washington	SS Landon Collins, Alabama
10. St. Louis Rams	OT Brandon Scherff, Iowa	OT Cedric Ogbuehi, Texas A&M	QB Jameis Winston, FSU	OT La'el Collins, LSU
11. Minnesota Vikings	WR Amari Cooper, Alabama	WR Kevin White, West Virginia	OT Andrus Peat, Stanford	OT Ronnie Stanley, Notre Dame
12. Cleveland Browns	WR Kevin White, West Virginia	OT T.J. Clemmings, Pitt	WR DeVante Parker, Louisville	OT Andrus Peat, Stanford
13. New Orleans Saints	LB Shaq Thompson, Washington	DE Shane Ray, Missouri	DE Dante Fowler, Florida	DE Dante Fowler, Florida
14. Miami Dolphins	DT Malcom Brown, Texas	LB Shaq Thompson, Washington	ILB Benardrick McKinney, Miss. State	LB Shaq Thompson, Washington
15. San Francisco 49ers	WR DeVante Parker, Louisville	DE Vic Beasley, Clemson	CB Trae Waynes, Michigan St.	WR Dorial Green-Beckham, Missouri
16. Houston Texans	OT Ronnie Stanley, Notre Dame	DT Danny Shelton, Washington	TE Maxx Williams, Minnesota	DT Danny Shelton, Washington
17. San Diego Chargers	OT Andrus Peat, Stanford	OT Andrus Peat, Stanford	DT Danny Shelton, Washington	OT T.J. Clemmings, Pitt
18. Kansas City Chiefs	WR Devin Funchess, Michigan	WR Jaelen Strong, Arizona St.	OT La'el Collins, LSU	WR DeVante Parker, Louisville
19. Cleveland Browns (via Buffalo)	DT Danny Shelton, Washington	DT Eddie Goldman, FSU	DT Eddie Goldman, FSU	WR Kevin White, West Virginia
20. Philadelphia Eagles	CB Marcus Peters, Washington	CB Trae Waynes, Michigan St.	WR Kevin White, West Virginia	QB Brett Hundley, UCLA
21. Cincinnati Bengals	DE Vic Beasley, Clemson	SS Landon Collins, Alabama	OT T.J. Clemmings, Pitt	OT Ereck Flowers, Miami
22. Pittsburgh Steelers	CB Trae Waynes, Michigan St.	CB Marcus Peters, Washington	CB Kevin Johnson, Wake Forest	CB Trae Waynes, Michigan St.
23. Detroit Lions	DT Eddie Goldman, FSU	G A.J. Cann, South Carolina	OT Ereck Flowers, Miami	DT Eddie Goldman, FSU
24. Arizona Cardinals	TE Maxx Williams, Minnesota	ILB Benardrick McKinney, Miss. State	LB Paul Dawson, TCU	DE Vic Beasley, Clemson
25. Carolina Panthers	OT Cedric Ogbuehi, Texas A&M	OT Ereck Flowers, Miami	CB Jalen Collins, LSU	OL Cameron Erving, Florida State
26. Baltimore Ravens	WR Jaelen Strong, Arizona St.	OLB Bud Dupree, Kentucky	CB Marcus Peters, Washington	WR Jaelen Strong, Arizona St.
27. Dallas Cowboys	FS Gerod Holliman, Louisville	CB P.J. Williams, Florida State	OLB Bud Dupree, Kentucky	CB Marcus Peters, Washington
28. Denver Broncos	DE Eli Harold, Virginia	DE Owamagbe Odighizuwa, UCLA	DT Michael Bennett, Ohio State	OT Ty Sambrailo, Colorado State
29. Indianapolis Colts	ILB Benardrick McKinney, Miss. State	ILB Eric Kendricks, UCLA	LB Denzel Perryman, Miami	RB Melvin Gordon, Wisconsin
30. Green Bay Packers	OT T.J. Clemmings, Pitt	DT Michael Bennett, Ohio State	DE/OLB Markus Golden, Missouri	DT Malcom Brown, Texas
31. New England Patriots	DT Jordan Phillips, Oklahoma	G Tre Jackson, Florida State	WR Devin Funchess, Michigan	DT Jordan Phillips, Oklahoma
32. Seattle Seahawks	WR Sammie Coates, Auburn	TE Maxx Williams, Minnesota	RB Melvin Gordon, Wisconsin	WR Devin Funchess, Michigan

(Mock Draft Sources: Matt Miller, Dan Kadar, Chris Burke, Rob Rang)

Top Storylines

Which QB Goes No. 1?

Spoiler: I have no idea! Neither, apparently, does anyone else. After perhaps the greatest season for a quarterback in college football history, Mariota seemingly had a significant edge going into the College Football Playoff. He came with none of Winston's baggage, threw fewer interceptions over an entire career than his counterpart did in 2014 and generally fit the skill profile of a "modern" NFL quarterback.

When Mariota's Oregon team thrashed Winston's Florida State side in their semifinal matchup, most logic-based thinkers would have thought the race was over. Mariota had far out-performed his biggest rival on national television.

Write him in at No. 1 with a Sharpie.

Then, something strange happened. Mariota's triumph over Winston sent the college football community into a schadenfreudian state of glee while it sent NFL evaluators back to the tape. Their takeaways have been a bit surprising.

After Mariota had been No. 1 by default for weeks, Winston is creeping back toward the status he occupied in the preseason. It turns out the film shows what many Florida State supporters have said all season. Winston's interceptions were less a byproduct of his regression than an actual progression. He's better at making his reads and getting the ball out than at any point during his freshman campaign, which avoids sacks but leads to throws into smaller windows.

David J. Phillip/Associated Press

Mariota, as you'll hear many times in the coming months, has little experience throwing passes into NFL-level windows. Oregon's offense is designed to limit those lower-percentage throws. Short passes, package plays and unbalanced formations help make life nearly impossible for the defense and far easier for the quarterback.

We know the Chip Kelly-style offense works in the NFL. We've seen Kelly do it two straight years with Nick Foles and Mark Sanchez as his quarterbacks. The issue concerning scouts is whether Mariota can transition into a more traditional offense—or, rather, whether he can do it quickly.

Few doubt he has the physical skills to make it work. But the patience for top draft picks, especially quarterbacks, has never been lower.

Winston's playing style is more traditional in nearly every sense. When scouts watch him, they know what they're watching because they've seen him before. Given the NFL's propensity to gravitate toward the safer talent, it wouldn't be a surprise to see Winston become the clear-cut No. 1 guy soon enough.

How Far Does Cedric Ogbuehi Fall?

Mark Humphrey/Associated Press

A potential first-round pick last season, Ogbuehi returned to Texas A&M for his senior season with hopes of securing his spot as a multimillionaire while proving he could play left tackle. He went 1-for-2, securing himself as a first-round right tackle prospect but most certainly not someone who should be shifting over to the left side.

Another reason Ogbuehi made the risky decision not to turn pro last year was he had support from Texas A&M. The university paid more than $50,000 in a loss-of-value insurance policy that covered him in case injuries caused his draft stock to drop. While it's unknown how much Ogbuehi would receive, Marqise Lee of the Jacksonville Jaguars netted millions by falling out of the first round due to a leg injury.

Ogbuehi might just be doing the same. Texas A&M officials confirmed to Robert Cessna of the Bryan-College Station Eagle that Ogbuehi suffered a torn ACL during the Aggies' Liberty Bowl win over West Virginia. He'll soon undergo surgery to repair the injury and may be ready for the start of the 2015 season, but he will be on the shelf for the entirety of the draft process. 

Tony Gutierrez/Associated Press

That means no workouts, no combine, nothing. All teams have to go by is Ogbuehi's scatterbrain game tape and his interviews, where the 6'5", 300-pound mauler will no doubt attempt to recoup whatever draft stock he can. 

That may not be possible. A potential top-10 pick in Kadar's latest mock, which came out pre-injury, Ogbuehi has already fallen out of Day 1 in Burke's. Despite Stanley surprisingly pulling his name out of the running, there are enough healthy tackles in Ogbuehi's general strata that it would be a surprise if a team took a chance on him. Five tackles (Brandon Scherff, La'el Collins, Andrus Peat, Ereck Flowers and T.J. Clemmings) have all established themselves as locks or borderline first-round talents.

The top end of Ogbuehi's stock is probably the middle of the second round.

Can Melvin Gordon Break the RB Drought?

Chris O'Meara/Associated Press

Because if he can't? Oh boy. It's going to be a long, long time until a running back goes in the first round. (OK, fine. Ezekiel Elliott will probably go in the first next year unless he gets hurt. Don't ruin my fun.)

The last two years have seen the NFL's first round go without a running back for the first two times in history. Given the way the 2012 class went, you can understand folks being a little gun-shy.

Trent Richardson can't even get on the punt team for Indianapolis. David Wilson is out of football, and Doug Martin has been dreadful two years running. That's not exactly the threesome that inspires you to go out and spend a high-priority selection.

But that 2012 class has far less to do with the lack of running backs than increased understanding about the position's fungibility. Every year a Pro Bowler comes out of nowhere. Justin Forsett is 29 years old and came into 2014 a bad training camp away from being out of football. Alfred Morris was a sixth-round pick the same year that Wilson, Martin and Richardson went off the board.

Chris O'Meara/Associated Press

Point being: Drafting a running back high is, generally speaking, a stupid exercise. It takes a generational talent to make it something even worth considering.

Gordon, despite his all-time great resume, isn't quite that. He has next to zero experience in the passing game, where Wisconsin rarely asked him to catch passes out of the backfield or handle difficult protections. The Badgers use their running backs in the most literal sense. They get the ball behind five behemoths and proceed to do God's work.

Gordon as a runner is unimpeachable. He has top-level breakaway speed and more than enough size (6'1", 207 lbs) to withstand NFL punishment. He also runs with an intelligence that should allow him to fit into any system. I don't doubt for a second that he's one of the 20 best players in this class and someone who will have multiple 1,000-yard seasons.

But he's not a complete prospect. That makes him interesting. If Gordon shows softer-than-expected hands and improved pass-blocking intelligence, he'll find his way into the 20s. If not, he might share the same fate as former teammate Montee Ball, who slipped to the second round despite a similarly brilliant career.

Follow Tyler Conway (@tylerconway22) on Twitter