Super Bowl 2015: Full Odds and Bold Playoff Predictions

Even though common knowledge tells us that the NFL playoffs are a crapshoot, the four teams left standing for a shot to play in Super Bowl XLIX on February 1 are about what anyone would have predicted. The Seattle Seahawks, Green Bay Packers and New England Patriots were considered the three best teams in the league virtually all year. 

The Indianapolis Colts are the only outlier in this group, but considering what Andrew Luck can do, it wouldn't have been crazy in September to think the Colts were going to win two games in January. It became less outrageous when the Denver Broncos were the opponent last week, and it was clear for the last month that Peyton Manning wasn't right. 

As the final countdown begins for the championship games Sunday, all of the storylines have been set. Analysts have exhausted every possible way each of these four teams can win and why each team will lose, so here's our expectation for what will happen by the time the final whistle sounds at the Super Bowl. 

Team	Odds To Win Super Bowl	Team	Odds to Win Conference
Seattle Seahawks	5/4	Seattle Seahawks	1/3
New England Patriots	9/5	New England Patriots	6/15
Green Bay Packers	11/2	Green Bay Packers	5/2
Indianapolis Colts	7/1	Indianapolis Colts	4/1

Seattle Will Beat Green Bay By Two Touchdowns

Uncredited/Associated Press

There's been a lot of praise heaped on Aaron Rodgers for the way he finished against Dallas in the divisional round. ESPN Stats & Info has the numbers to back that up:

However, there are two things to consider about Rodgers in that game. First, he was facing a Dallas defense that was without arguably its best player when Rolando McClain left with concussion-like symptoms. That was a crippling blow for a unit that was hardly among the NFL's elite. 

Second, even though he can be a troll in the worst possible way, Skip Bayless made a valid claim about Rodgers and the Packers' play away from Lambeau in 2014:

That doesn't even take into account Rodgers' calf injury, which was clearly limiting him against Dallas. Now, he's going to face a Seattle defense that finished 12th in quarterback hits in the regular season, per NFL.com. 

Unlike the Cowboys, who were content to stick with their Tampa 2 defensive scheme and let Rodgers sit in the pocket, Seattle defensive coordinator Dan Quinn knows that making Rodgers move is the best way to defeat the Packers. 

Even if the Seahawks don't pressure Rodgers, their secondary is scary in all the best ways. Green Bay didn't even look at Richard Sherman in Week 1, though that is going to change this time around. Kam Chancellor looks like a human but plays like a machine, via Chris Burke of Sports Illustrated:

All of that is about what the Packers won't be able to do on offense, but Seattle's offense isn't exactly chopped liver coming into this game. Russell Wilson had one of his best passing games of the year last week against Carolina with 268 yards and three touchdowns on 15 completions. 

The Panthers and Packers finished right next to each other in passing yards allowed per game, so don't expect to see Wilson slowed down by this defense. 

There's too much working against the Packers in this spot to keep the game close, let alone beat Seattle at CenturyLink Field. The Seahawks will clinch their second consecutive trip to the Super Bowl in dominating fashion. 

Seahawks 34, Packers 17

The Patriots Are Going To Win Super Bowl XLIX

Elise Amendola/Associated Press

This prediction accomplishes two things. First, it allows me to get out of the way my pick for the AFC Championship Game. As great as it is to see Luck in this spot, especially considering how flawed the Colts are outside of him, the Colts are at least one year away from being able to beat New England. 

Second, it gets me to the real meat and potatoes of the playoffs. The championship games don't have much appeal because they are rematches of games that were blowouts in the regular season, and there doesn't seem to be any significant difference in the teams this time around. 

It also seems that no other Super Bowl would be as satisfying as the Patriots vs. Seahawks. Fans in Green Bay and Indianapolis would disagree, but think about it. New England has been the best franchise this century, and Seattle has been the best franchise since the start of 2013. 

Going back further, the Seahawks' breakout game with this group of core players was in 2012 against New England. They won that matchup 24-23, with Richard Sherman getting in Tom Brady's face after it was over, as you can see in the video from Fox Sports embedded below. 

Considering how long ago that game was, it's unfair to say this would be a revenge game. It's just a matter of looking at how the Patriots match up with the Seahawks. 

Bill Belichick is a master of exploiting matchups. One area in which the Seahawks have been vulnerable this season is against the run. You wouldn't know it by the fact that they allowed 81.5 yards per game in that category during the regular season, but a micro-level look at things shows they are vulnerable. 

NFL salary-cap expert Shane Richardson noted on Twitter that you have to attack the middle of Seattle's defense when running:

Carolina had success running the ball in the divisional round, getting 132 yards on 30 carries. It was when Cam Newton had to throw the ball that the Panthers ran into problems. 

Fortunately, the Patriots have a much better quarterback to find holes in the Seahawks secondary when tasked with throwing the ball. 

Harry How/Getty Images

In Seattle's four losses during the regular season, the defense allowed a combined 555 rushing yards. This is not an infallible group; you just have to find the right spot to hit and get a little lucky. 

New England also has the best offensive weapon in the league, Rob Gronkowski. There aren't a lot of tight ends who can match the power of Chancellor, but the 6'6", 265-pound Gronk is one of them. 

Chris Harris of ESPN.com (Insider subscription required) made a list of the five most unstoppable plays for the divisional round, with Gronkowski running a seam route coming in at No. 1:

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Mostly, though, defending any seam pattern is a matter of smart safety play. Asking a linebacker to turn and run with Gronk is crazy. With two safeties back, a defense can cheat one man Gronk's way while still having someone in center field. Of course, that makes you susceptible to the run, or to combination routes with players such as Edelman or Brandon LaFell.

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The Seahawks have the safeties to hold Gronkowski down for a short amount of time, but eventually, the big man will make a big play that gets New England in the end zone. 

Belichick does have to shore up his run defense, which allowed 129 yards to Justin Forsett in the divisional round, but the offensive weapons he has to play with will eventually be too much for Seattle to overcome in a 27-23 victory.