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NFL Free Agents 2015: Who's Guaranteed to Break the Bank?

Gary DavenportJan 15, 2015

The playoffs aren't over yet, but for 28 of the NFL's 32 teams, 2014 is already in the rearview mirror.

For those franchises, the process of getting better for the 2015 season has already begun, and one of the first steps in that regard (after scouting this year's rookie crop at the college all-star games and February's NFL Scouting Combine) is the start of free agency on March 10.

The NFL never sleeps. That "offseason" you hear about? It's a myth, like Bigfoot and the Cleveland Browns winning.

Here at Bleacher Report, we never sleep either, so here's a look at some NFL stars who should be set to make a trip in the upcoming weeks.

A trip to the bank, to deposit bags and bags of straight cash, homey. (That quote never gets old.)

Mark Sanchez, QB

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Yes, Mark Sanchez. The same Mark Sanchez that added this to the NFL lexicon.

However, the "butt fumble" was in the past, and in 2014, Sanchez did a pretty good job of reviving his flatlined NFL stock.

Sanchez made eight starts in place of the injured Nick Foles for the Philadelphia Eagles in 2014. The sixth-year pro wasn't able to get the Eagles back into the playoffs, but Sanchez did throw for over 2,400 yards, tossed more touchdown passes than interceptions and posted the highest passer rating (88.4) of his career.

With Rex Ryan now the head coach of the Buffalo Bills, some pundits have speculated that Sanchez could be headed for a reunion with his old coach in Western New York.

It's a possibility Ryan wouldn't rule out, according to Geoff Mosher of CSN Philadelphia. “Certainly he’ll be a guy under consideration,” Ryan said.

Sanchez is sure to be considered by a number of other QB-needy teams as well. No one is going to confuse the 28-year-old with Aaron Rodgers anytime soon, but he is easily the best of an annually weak crop of free- agent signal-callers.

And in the NFL, any halfway-competent quarterback is going to get paid.

DeMarco Murray, RB

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In recent years, the running back position has become somewhat devalued in the NFL. The last two NFL drafts have seen no running backs drafted in the first round, and there haven't been any fat paydays for free agents at the position.

Of course, it isn't every day that the NFL's leading rusher is set to hit the open market.

That's the case in 2015. DeMarco Murray of the Dallas Cowboys, who paced the NFL with 1,845 yards on the ground in 2014, is set to hit free agency.

Given that Murray was the backbone of Dallas' playoff run this year, it might seem like an easy call for the Cowboys to re-up the 26-year-old.

However, there are other considerations. For starters, Murray carried the ball a staggering 392 times in the regular season alone this year, which puts the "Curse of 370" squarely in play.

There's also the matter of the Cowboys' tenuous salary-cap situation, and the fact that Dallas also has to re-sign a certain superstar wide receiver (who we'll get to in just a moment).

According to Ian Rapoport of NFL.com (per NFL.com's Chris Wesseling) the Cowboys have an offer on the table that would pay Murray about $16 million over the next four seasons, an offer that Wesseling deemed "insulting."

For his part, Murray told ESPNDallas.com's Todd Archer that he's "not worried about my future."

It appears to be pretty simple. If the Cowboys can sign their superstar wide receiver to a multiyear contract, then the franchise tag would be in play with Murray.

If they can't, and they have to tag said wide receiver, then the Oklahoma product will all but surely at least test the market.

Devalued or not, Murray's going to get more than $4 million a season if things reach that point.

Dez Bryant, WR

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OK, so about that superstar wide receiver.

His last catch of the season (that wasn't) aside, Dez Bryant had an outstanding fifth NFL season. Bryant reeled in 88 passes for 1,320 yards and a league-leading 16 touchdowns. Only Antonio Brown of the Pittsburgh Steelers finished the season with a higher grade at Pro Football Focus (subscription required) among wide receivers. He ranked fifth at his position in Football Outsiders' DYAR rankings.

Any way you slice it, from the eyeball test to advanced stats, Bryant has become one of the NFL's very best at what he does.

However, before fans start Photoshopping Bryant into their favorite team's uniforms, it's worth pointing out what team owner Jerry Jones told Jon Machota of The Dallas Morning News in November regarding Bryant's future:

"

What we want to do is have an agreement for the rest of Dez’s career. To me, that says a lot about the concern about off-the-field [issues] if we want him on the Dallas Cowboys for the rest of his career.

I’m real impressed with how he’s evolved over the last several years, or we wouldn’t be in serious contract negotiations with him. So I think all of that is where it really is, and I do look for us to get something done with Dez.

"

Whether it's via a long-term extension or the franchise tag, Bryant is a shoo-in to make in excess of $10 million in 2015.

And that money is all but certainly going to come from the Dallas Cowboys.

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Demaryius Thomas, WR

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The 2014 season didn't end according to plan for the Denver Broncos, who now face a search for a new head coach and the suddenly uncertain future of quarterback Peyton Manning.

However, those aren't the Broncos' only problems. The team also has a number of key contributors set to hit free agency, chief among them wide receiver Demaryius Thomas.

Thomas, who set career highs with 111 catches and 1,619 receiving yards in 2014, finished the season as PFF's fifth-ranked wide receiver. Broncos general manager John Elway made it clear to Nicki Jhabvala of The Denver Post that bringing Thomas back in 2015 is a priority for the team:

"

We've got a good base of guys for the most part, with the exception of a couple Thomases (wide receiver Demaryius Thomas and tight end Julius Thomas) and a couple other guys we'll work on once we get through the coaching search to be able to tie them down (and) hopefully have them back.

"

It wasn't that long ago that it was considered a no-brainer that Thomas would return to the Broncos for his sixth NFL season.

The odds still lean heavily in that direction, but given all that's happened in the Mile High City this week, the only thing that's certain is that nothing is certain.

Should Thomas somehow hit the open market, the number of teams interested in his services will be a lot longer than the list of teams who aren't.

Randall Cobb, WR

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It's a pretty big year for free-agent wideouts.

Just like Bryant and Thomas, Randall Cobb of the Green Bay Packers is also set to hit the open market. Just like Bryant and Thomas, Bob McGinn of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports that Cobb is high on the list of the Packers' offseason priorities:

"

Randall Cobb has earned the right to stand at the head of the class in the Green Bay Packers' planning for 2015 and beyond.

The Packers are attempting to re-sign Cobb to a long-term contract extension. Of the 11 players headed for unrestricted free agency, Cobb is their priority.

"

Just like with Bryant and Thomas, however, there are bumps in the road.

Cobb, who made 91 catches for 1,287 yards and 12 touchdowns in 2014, isn't the only big-name free agent the Packers have to deal with this spring. Offensive tackle Bryan Bulaga and cornerback Tramon Williams (among others) will also see their contracts expire.

With rookie receiver Davante Adams coming on strong as the season progressed, it's possible that general manager Ted Thompson might decide that re-upping Cobb is too rich for Green Bay's blood.

Should that prove to be the case, the 24-year-old certainly won't hurt for suitors.

Julius Thomas, TE

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We could keep going at the wide receiver position for a while, but let's move on.

As John Elway alluded to, Demaryius isn't the only big-name Thomas on the Broncos set to hit free agency. So is tight end Julius Thomas, who had 43 catches for 489 yards and 12 touchdowns in just 13 games this season.

Those numbers were dampened by a late-season ankle injury, but make no mistake—in an NFL where athletic, field-stretching tight ends are all the rage, Thomas would be in huge demand were he to hit the open market.

Of course, Elway also made it clear that the Broncos want to bring Thomas back, a feat that Bleacher Report NFL National Lead Writer Mike Tanier thinks is doable (if a bit tricky):

"

The Broncos should invest a few thousand dollars in a nice retirement party for (Wes) Welker. Demaryius takes free-agent precedent over Julius. Franchise tagging Julius Thomas for one prove-it year after an injury-marred season could make sense; then again, $7 million (or so) guaranteed will cause some cap strain.

"

Conventional wisdom says that Julius Thomas will be in orange and blue again in 2015. But conventional wisdom hasn't exactly been large and in charge in Denver of late.

Ndamukong Suh, DT

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Most of the players on this list are youngsters who have been playing under new-CBA rookie deals. For those players, free agency in 2015 represents their first shot at a fat payday.

Not so for Detroit Lions defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh. Back in 2010, Suh's rookie deal checked in at a cool $64 million over five years.

And if Chris Wesseling of NFL.com is correct, Suh's new deal may make that one look like pocket change:

"

Suh is just 27 years old and (earned) his fourth All-Pro selection. It's not every year that a players of his caliber and pedigree reaches the open market. For that reason, Suh is almost certain to top (J.J.) Watt's six-year, $100 million extension with the Texans.

"

Jackpot!

The Lions, for their part, have been all over the place about Suh's future in Motown. Back in July, the Lions said, via Marc Sessler of NFL.com, that they were willing to let Suh test the open market.

In early January, however,  Detroit general manager Martin Mayhew told Noah Trister of The Associated Press that the Lions were still very much interested in retaining Suh, even if it meant using the franchise tag:

"

He likes to win, I know that. I know he likes coach (Jim) Caldwell, I know he's very comfortable here in Detroit, so those things all play in our favor. At the end of the day money talks, so we'll have to step up in terms of pursuing him financially as well.

"

However, with the number to tag Suh a knee-knocking $26 million and change, that's almost cetainly out the window. Suh also made it clear to ESPN.com's Michael Rothstein back in October that no "hometown discount" will be forthcoming.

"Football is football and business is business," Suh said.

Bidding war, here we come.

Jerry Hughes, DE

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Of all the players featured here, Buffalo Bills defensive end Jerry Hughes is the most likely to find himself with a new mailing address in 2015.

After back-to-back double-digit sack seasons (including 10 sacks in 2014), the 26-year-old is sure to command a pretty penny on the open market, especially given his success rushing the passer regardless of scheme the past two seasons.

Hughes made it clear to Jay Skurski of The Buffalo News that he won't take a smaller paycheck to stay in Western New York:

"

That’s a nice little deal to throw out there. But yeah, I’ve never heard of a hometown discount in the business world. I definitely want to be back. You saw what we were able to do this season, the group of guys that we had. To be so close, you definitely want to come back and just take another shot at it.

"

There's another issue as well. Hughes made those statements before Doug Marrone jumped ship as head coach. Rex Ryan's arrival in Buffalo means no more defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz, and no more four-man defensive front.

There's also the matter of the boatload of money Buffalo already has tied up in Mario Williams, and the impending free agency in 2015 of defensive tackle Marcell Dareus.

Hughes may well find himself the victim of a numbers game in Buffalo, but no worries.

The Bills' loss will be another team's gain.

Well, and Hughes'.

And his agent.

And his accountant.

And his realtor.

And the guy who sells this.

Jason Pierre-Paul, DE

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Hughes isn't the only young defensive end about to make a bunch of cheddar.

After a slow start to the 2014 season, Jason Pierre-Paul began to recapture some of the form that made him one of the NFL's most feared pass-rushers in 2011.

By season's end, Pierre-Paul had tallied 77 tackles and 12.5 sacks, finishing the year seventh among 4-3 ends at Pro Football Focus.

Pierre-Paul told Stephen Lorenzo of the New York Daily News that he feels that performance merits a fat new payday, while allowing that he's unsure that payday will come from the G-Men:

"

I’d love to be a Giant for the rest of my career, but at the end of the day it doesn’t always fall like that, Look at (Justin) Tuck, look at Osi (Umenyiora), look at Brandon Jacobs. It doesn’t matter. (But) I’m hitting 26 at the beginning of the year (Jan. 1). ... There’s much more football to be played at a very high intensity for me.

I think I’m worth a lot of money. What do you think? 

"

It's true that Pierre-Paul is in the prime of his career, and the fifth-year pro is one of the best run defenders at his position in the NFL.

However, it's also true that Pierre-Paul battled injuries in both 2012 and 2013, injuries that contributed to his slow start this past season.

That's the risk-reward tightrope NFL teams will have to walk when considering offering Pierre-Paul a long-term deal, but you know what they say.

It only takes one team, and someone is going to take that chance.

Justin Houston, LB

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Before we go any further, let's make one thing pretty clear.

The chances of outside linebacker Justin Houston playing anywhere but Kansas City in 2015 are slim to none—emphasis on the none part.

NFL teams aren't generally the sort who allow young pass-rushers who have racked up 43 sacks over the past three seasons to walk out the door.

Especially when 22 of those sacks came in the 2014 season.

As Sam Mellinger of The Kansas City Star wrote back in December, there's really only one thing to do—pay the man:

"

Houston's agent spent the offseason making the case to Chiefs management that Houston deserved a contract equal or greater than the $35 million guarantee that Tamba Hali got three years ago. Houston spent the season making it obvious that Hali's contract is now just a starting point. He's worth something much closer to Robert Quinn's $41.2 million guarantee or even J.J. Watt's $51.8 million.

Whatever he makes, in NFL terms he will be worth every cent. He is a rare talent and worker at a premier position who gives the Chiefs an advantage over every team but the Texans.

"

You can't argue his point. Houston doesn't get the ink of defensive stars like J.J. Watt or even Seattle Seahawks cornerback Richard Sherman, but if you draw up a list of the top five defensive players in the National Football League and Houston isn't on it?

Well, then you might want to watch this. Then redo your list.

Byron Maxwell, CB

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Before the question is even asked, no, Darelle Revis of the New England Patriots will not be featured in this piece.

The reason is simple. Technically, Revis is under contract with the Pats in 2015, although the odds of Revis' $25 million cap number staying on New England's books are about the same as Houston leaving Kansas City.

That leaves Seattle's Byron Maxwell as the cream of this year's crop at one of the most sought-after positions in free agency.

Thrust into the starting lineup for the Super Bowl champions due to Brandon Browner's departure in free agency a year ago, Maxwell has more than held his own. The fourth-year pro tallied 39 tackles and a pair of interceptions in 13 games in 2014, providing a steady hand opposite Richard Sherman in the Seattle secondary.

Granted, Maxwell's ranking of 45th at his position this year at Pro Football Focus isn't going to inspire a lot of "oohs" and "aahs," and this isn't to say that he's a player the caliber of his batterymate.

However, the season isn't even over yet for the Seahawks, and Maxwell's name has already been linked to the Pittsburgh Steelers and Philadelphia Eagles, per Josh Carney of Pro Football Spot and CSNPhilly.com's Ray Didinger among other teams.

Even a "decent" free-agent cornerback can generate quite the bidding war in an NFL where more teams than not have holes in their defensive backfields.

With the Seahawks staring down the barrel of what could be the biggest quarterback contract in NFL history, that's a fight they just may have to bow out of.

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