Benson Henderson vs. Donald Cerrone 3: Head-to-Toe Breakdown

Donald Cerrone, ranked No. 3 in the lightweight division, returns to the UFC's Octagon on Sunday after just 15 days away from the structure. 

Cerrone defeated young gun Myles Jury at UFC 182 and then got the call to replace Eddie Alvarez for a fight with No. 5-ranked contender Benson Henderson. It will be the third meeting for the two former WEC standouts.

Their first meeting was an epic encounter for the interim WEC lightweight title. The back-and-forth battle put both lightweights on the map. Henderson got the edge on the scorecards after 25 minutes of fantastic MMA action. Their second fight was a bit shorter as Henderson locked up a tight guillotine and got the tap from Cerrone.

Nearly five years later, here we are.

UFC Fight Night 59 will see the two Top Five lightweights go at it again, but this time it will only be a three-round co-main event bout. Will that make a difference? Let's break it all down for this incredible matchup that fell into our laps.

Striking

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When they first met, it was more of a standard grappler vs. striker affair. Henderson was the wrestler, and Cerrone was the striker.

Both men have come a long way since that fight, and Henderson's striking has been fascinating to watch.

The Arizonan shows off funky techniques inside the cage. He targets the calf, specifically, with his leg kicks. Henderson improved his boxing and footwork. He has bested other strikers and has used his range effectively. However, this is a bad matchup for him on the feet.

Cerrone is on point with his striking right now—more than ever.

The Jackson's MMA product finds his range quickly. And once he finds it, he unleashes punches, kicks and knees more vicious than most. Henderson won't be able to get inside easily, and Cerrone's power has only increased since their last meeting. Henderson will find it difficult to get big success while standing.

Cerrone has a decided edge in the stand-up against Henderson.

Edge: Cerrone

Grappling

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Cerrone showcased his grappling against Jury quite well earlier this month, but you still have to give the edge to Henderson.

His wrestling is simply better, and once on the ground he has a good top game.

Should Henderson find himself in trouble, it is difficult to imagine how Cerrone gets the finish. And that's only because of the submissions we saw Henderson escape during their first encounter. He was a human Gumby in that matchup.

There is no doubt Cerrone has the ability to out-grapple Henderson. He did well in their first fight. However, when playing the percentages, you have to lean toward Henderson. It is his game, and he is adept at it.

Edge: Henderson

Submissions

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I read your comments, and many feel like the submissions category should be placed with grappling. However, think of it like this for these breakdowns: Grappling determines who has the edge in achieving and controlling the better position, while submissions refer to who has the edge in his ability to finish.

That is why they are segmented out. So, who has the better chances at getting a tap?

I lean toward Henderson.

For one, he's proved it against Cerrone.

Cerrone had Henderson in bad positions in their first fight, but he couldn't get the tap. Henderson never showed any signs of coming close to tapping, but when Henderson locked in his guillotine in their second meeting, it was all over.

Also, Henderson should be in better position, which suits his game. Cerrone is fantastic off his back, but Henderson does well on the ground to thwart any submissions Cerrone may throw up.

The edge goes to Henderson, but not by much.

Edge: Henderson

X-Factors

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Cerrone's X-Factor: The Turnaround

Quick turnarounds have happened before in UFC history, and they are a mixed bag of success. No historical data point to it being more likely a success or failure. It is a question mark.

A key for any fighter entering the cage on fight night is peaking at the right time. That is how training camps prepare their fighters: to peak on fight day. Two weeks coming off his previous fight is a tall order against someone like Henderson.

How will the quick turnaround affect his entire game?

One advantage is that Cerrone focused on a quick turnaround. He did not binge following his last win and bloat back up. He knew he would be fighting again soon. I just don't know if he knew how soon.

Henderson's X-Factor: Three Rounds

After eight consecutive fights of training and preparing for 25-minute battles, Henderson is back in position to fight three-round excursions inside the Octagon.

He has always had great cardio, and that should not be a factor. His game plan of how he handles the fight will be. He could pace himself over five rounds previously, but in this encounter he will have to turn it up a bit as Cerrone will force the action.

It could lead Henderson into making more mistakes than usual.

This should be a high-paced fight between two elite lightweights. How Henderson manages this change after fighting in five-round fights for years will be intriguing to watch.

Prediction

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This fight is a coin flip. It truly is.

This is a matchup between two men who have always been closely matched. No one has developed into a much better fighter than the other. They have ascended together. It is all about execution this weekend.

For most fighters coming in on short notice, no matter how good they looked in their previous outing, I would be inclined to lean toward the other guy. In this case, Henderson is a fighter you don't want to fight on that quick of a turnaround, but Cerrone is a different kind of person. This, in my opinion, only makes him more dangerous in the cage.

Cowboy will stuff some early takedowns from Henderson and pelt his legs with strong kicks. This will pay off over the course of 15 minutes by limiting Henderson's movement and wrestling.

Cerrone will find more success standing and avoid being stuck on bottom for too long. His defensive wrestling will play heavily this weekend. He won't finish Henderson and will have to wait for the scorecards to be read. Cerrone will exhale a sigh of relief as the ref raises his hand after a close fight against Henderson.

Prediction: Cerrone defeats Henderson by unanimous decision