An Early Look Ahead to Possible 2016 F1 Driver Line-Ups
A favourite parlour game in Formula One circles is predicting which drivers will move where at the conclusion of each season. Usually, the speculation heats up in August, when the teams take a month-long break from racing and there is not a ton of other news.
Each year, though, it seems like the driver carousel talk begins earlier and earlier. The 2015 season has not even begun—heck, testing for the 2015 season has not even begun—but there are already rumours swirling about who is going where for 2016.
Some of it is surely just idle chatter, filling the void as everyone waits anxiously for the new cars to get out on the track, but that does not mean it isn't fun to speculate.
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Keeping in mind that lots can change once drivers see the relative performance of the cars, once the behind-the-scenes paddock politics switch into gear and once considerations like budgets and sponsorship come into play, let's take an early look at some of the rumours and potential driver switches for 2016.
The most coveted seats are Lewis Hamilton's and Nico Rosberg's with defending champions Mercedes. They will once again be the class of the field in 2015 and their advantage could extend even further than that, provided there is not a big shake-up in the engine regulations.
Last September, in the midst of an intense battle between the Mercedes duo, McLaren CEO Ron Dennis told the BBC's Andrew Benson, "We can imagine a range of scenarios that could see one of their drivers on the market by the end of the year."
Perhaps the most likely of those scenarios is Hamilton winning the title again in 2015 and Rosberg feeling the need to move on for his own shot at glory. The team did agree to a multi-year deal with Rosberg last July, but the German driver was leading the championship at the time.
The bottom line, though, is that no driver wants to leave a dominant car. Unless Hamilton and Rosberg's relationship deteriorates completely in 2015, both should be back in silver next year.
Another interesting situation is developing at Ferrari, who are coming off a very disappointing season. Sebastian Vettel jumped from Red Bull to the Scuderia and should be there for a while, but his new team-mate, Kimi Raikkonen, is a wild card.
Last October, the Iceman told CNN's Sarah Holt and Amanda Davies, "I have a contract for next year and probably for one more year."
However, 2014 was Raikkonen's worst season in F1. He had never before finished out of the top 10 in the drivers' standings—last year, he was 12th. If he struggles again in 2015, the team could decide to bring in new blood.
Superstar-in-the-making Valtteri Bottas has been linked to Ferrari, although he recently told Finnish television station MTV3 (via Planet F1) that he is focused only on the upcoming season with Williams.
Ferrari also signed Jean-Eric Vergne as a test driver when his impressive form late in the season was not enough to save his job at Toro Rosso. Last weekend, he told La Gazetta dello Sport (via ESPN F1), "Now I'm at Ferrari, which is also an excellent opportunity for 2016."
If Bottas continues to develop on the same trajectory, though, it is a safe bet Ferrari (and some other teams) will be opening their chequebooks to entice him away from Williams.
McLaren also have the luxury (and headache) of a crowded driver situation. With Fernando Alonso's return to Woking, Kevin Magnussen was bumped down to third-driver status.
While the Dane did not light the sport on fire in his rookie season, neither did he look out of place. Particularly impressive was his second-place finish at his F1 debut in Australia.
McLaren also have Stoffel Vandoorne, who was second in GP2 last year and second in Formula Renault 3.5 the year before, waiting in the wings.
Jenson Button retirement rumours were in full blast in the lead-up to the Alonso signing—see, for example, this report from The Independent's Tom Sheen. Even with Button confirmed at McLaren for 2015, there is no guarantee he will stay beyond that. He will turn 35 next week and could opt for retirement if he finds himself stuck behind Alonso.
In that case, Magnussen and Vandoorne (and probably others) will be lining up for the vacant race seat.
One other team which should be interesting to watch is 2016's new entry, Haas F1.
Team owner Gene Haas told Autosport's Jonathan Noble last June, "Seat No. 1 is going to obviously be taken by an existing F1 driver that has experience with the current engine package and chassis," but that he would love to have an American driver in the second seat.
Other than that, Haas has not really tipped his hand—and with good reason: Who knows which drivers will be available by the end of the 2015 season?
The identity of a potential American driver is a bit easier to guess, though. The only one with any recent experience in F1 is Alexander Rossi, who split last season as a reserve driver at Caterham and Marussia. He would be the logical—and perhaps only—choice.
We are still a long way from any decisions being made for 2016, though. In the meantime, there is another season of racing to look forward to, so enough with driver hypotheticals.
It's only two weeks until the first preseason test in Jerez!
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