With or Without Traevon Jackson, Wisconsin Will Win the Big Ten

Bo Ryan gets more out of his roster than any coach in the country.

That's a point that is critical to any debate worth having about whether Wisconsin is still the favorite in the Big Ten with point guard Traevon Jackson out with a foot injury sustained in the 67-62 loss to Rutgers on Sunday.

It seems pretty clear that Jackson's injury is bad enough that he's not going to have much say in the race.

Andy Manis/Associated Press

"Oh, it's pretty severe," Ryan said of Jackson's foot on Monday's Big Ten conference call. A source told CBSSports.com's Gary Parrish (via colleague Sam Vecenie) that Jackson could be out up to six weeks. 

And just like that, the Big Ten went from trying to figure out who the second-best team in the league will be to the possibility that the league champ is not a foregone conclusion. 

Or is it? 

History says: Don't bet against Ryan.

	Preseason	Finished
2001-02	?	t-1st
2002-03	?	1st
2003-04	3rd	t-2nd
2004-05	3rd	3rd
2005-06	?	t-4th
2006-07	2nd	2nd
2007-08	?	1st
2008-09	3rd	t-4th
2009-10	?	4th
2010-11	?	3rd
2011-12	2nd	4th
2012-13	?	4th
2013-14	?	2nd
2014-15	1st	?

In Ryan's first 13 years in Madison, only one time (2008-09) have his Badgers finished below where the Big 10 preseason poll predicted them to finish in the conference standings. 

To explain: The Big Ten only releases the top three teams in its preseason poll, but every year that Wisconsin has not appeared on the ballot in the top three, it has finished in the top four (Ryan has never finished lower than fourth). So it's safe to assume that the 2008-09 season—picked third/finished tied for fourth—remains the only year where the Badgers finished below expectations. 

Mike McGinnis/Getty Images

So there's that. 

Plus, there's this: Wisconsin still has the best team in the league even without Jackson. 

The senior point guard is a nice player who often acts as a stabilizing force for the Badgers and is their go-to guy in late-shot-clock situations, but his absence should hardly be damning to the Wisconsin offense. 

Sophomore guard Bronson Koenig, who will replace Jackson as the starting point guard, has the ability to be a more talented scorer. 

Jackson has averaged more points per game this season—9.4 to 4.9—but Koenig has better shooting numbers. 

	2pt FG%	3pt FG%	eFG%
Traevon Jackson	52.2	28.6	49.6
Bronson Koenig	56.2	31.8	51.3

Koenig is also a better shooter than his 31.8 three-point percentage would suggest. His presence on the floor often helps space the defense and gives Wisconsin's big three (Frank Kaminsky, Nigel Hayes and Sam Dekker) more room to operate in the post.

	Ast. rate	TO%
Jackson	19.9	16.2
Koenig	18.4	9.2

The sophomore is a capable ball-handler, and his assist/turnover numbers have also been better than Jackson's (see chart).

The one area where Koenig is not quite as accomplished as Jackson is breaking his man down off the dribble and getting into the paint. Jackson will be missed there. But he has gone through stretches in his career where he gets a little penetration-happy, and if this means more late-clock touches for Kaminsky or Hayes, that's certainly not a bad thing.

The biggest hurdle for Ryan will be trying to figure out how to adjust the use of his bench with his sixth man (Koenig) becoming a starter.

The Badgers are thin on perimeter depth, and the next man up is Zak Showalter, who had played a total of six minutes in the five games before Rutgers.

To help keep Koenig and Josh Gasser's minutes in check, Ryan can go with his "redwood" lineup that includes Kaminsky, Hayes and Dekker, and 6'10" senior Duje Dukan stealing some minutes on the perimeter.

Dukan is a capable floor-spacer on the offensive end—he's made 15 of 44 threes this season—but he can be a liability on the defensive end, especially when trying to keep quicker players in front of him. He had a very poor defensive game against Rutgers and made some questionable decisions on offense.

Oh yeah, that Rutgers loss... 

Even without Kaminsky, no one saw that coming; but it would be a mistake to look at it as a sign that trouble is ahead for the Badgers. In fact, it was kind of fluky. 

USA TODAY Sports

The Scarlett Knights had their best shooting game and most efficient offensive performance of the season. They are the worst three-point shooting team in the Big Ten, and they caught fire in the second half, making five of seven threes. To their credit, they also did a good job taking advantage of Kadeem Jack's quickness on the offensive end. 

Jack killed the Badgers in isolation sets, but Kaminsky may have offset some of that had he been available. There are also few players like Jack in the Big Ten. The closest comparison would probably be Illinois forward Malcolm Hill. The Illini could also pose some problems for Wisconsin's defense with their multiple perimeter players who can create off the dribble. 

But the Illini—1-3 in the Big Ten—are obviously not a real challenger. Ohio State, Michigan State and Maryland are the best the league has to offer, and each has their own issues. 

The Buckeyes are not defending at their typical level, and they are extremely reliant on freshman D'Angelo Russell on the offensive end—although Russell is playing at a rare level. The Spartans are starting to play better, but they're not overly talented, and it's hard to believe a team that lost to Texas Southern can be consistent enough to win the Big Ten. 

The Terps are probably the most dangerous contender, but can they score consistently enough to win a league title? They currently rank 12th in offensive efficiency in league games, per kenpom.com (subscription required). 

Even without Jackson, the Badgers have the best offense in the league. Their front line is far and away the most talented, and the duo of Koenig and Gasser can hold its own in the backcourt. 

Now if the Badgers were to lose their star in Kaminsky, who missed Sunday's game with a concussion, that would be debilitating to their Big Ten title hopes. But fear not, Wisconsin fans, the team announced via its official Twitter feed on Tuesday that he has been cleared to practice and should play on Thursday against Nebraska. 

One more bit of history is also on Wisconsin's side. The Badgers have lost their starting point guard before and came out just fine. 

Two years ago, Gasser tore his ACL and was lost for the season. That's when Jackson, then a sophomore, replaced Gasser as the starter and a less talented Wisconsin squad went on to a solid 12-6 campaign in the Big Ten. That bunch was the fourth-highest ranked Big Ten team in the preseason AP poll, and the Badgers finished fourth in the league standings. 

This team is Ryan's first to be picked as the Big Ten's preseason No. 1. And Jackson or no Jackson, that's exactly where the Badgers will finish.

C.J. Moore covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @CJMooreBR.