Breaking Down the Rumored Stephan El Shaarawy-Mattia Destro Swap Deal

According to Corriere dello Sport (h/t Football Italia), Milan are weighing up a sensational swap deal that would net them Roma and Italy striker Mattia Destro and send Stephan El Shaarawy in the opposite direction.  

"

The Corriere dello Sport claims #ACMilan will offer Stephan El Shaarawy to #ASRoma in exchange for Mattia Destro http://t.co/h4O7QFXGxD

— footballitalia (@footballitalia) January 11, 2015"

Keen to add the target man they sorely lack, it's no surprise the Rossoneri have targeted Destro, as the Italy international is one of the better young centre-forwards on the peninsula. 

Conversely, the rumored transfer would see Roma receive El Shaarawy, who plays the same position as wing dynamo Gervinho, as well as youngsters Alessandro Florenzi, Juan Iturbe and Adem Ljajic. 

On paper, the deal is quite even—Transfermarkt.com places El Shaarawy's market value at €17 million, which is just half a million more than Destro's €16.5 million estimation. 

The Roma man is about a year-and-a half El Shaarawy's senior, but that's a negligible difference, considering that, unlike the Milan forward, Destro's playing style isn't predicated on pace. 

It is a relatively equal exchange on first impression, but let's dig a little deeper to analyze how each player has fared this season and project how they would impact their new clubs.

---

After a lengthy injury lay-off that spanned the best part of a full season, El Shaarawy is taking some time to reprise the stellar form he displayed two years ago.

A Statistical Comparison of Stephan El Shaarawy in 2012-13 and 2014-15 (via WhoScored.com)
Season	Appearances	Goals	Assists	Shots/Game	Key Passes/Game	Dribbles/Game
2012-13	34 (3)	16	0	2.8	1.5	1.2
2014-15	10 (3)	1	3	1.4	0.8	1.0

No longer the focal point of the Milan offense, it's no surprise that his per-game averages have dropped, but the extent to which they have is quite alarming.

His decreased goal haul correlates directly with him shooting less, and while his increased assist tally is encouraging, the near 50 percent drop in his key-pass average elucidates a diminished role in this Milan attack.

Recently benched for M'Baye Niang ahead of a sputtering 1-1 draw away to Torino, there's a growing sentiment that Il Faraone is not the untouchable, future world-beater he was once considered to be. 

Riccardo De Luca/Associated Press/Associated Press

Because Francesco Totti is still leading the Giallorossi line at the age of 38, Destro has struggled to hold a regular role in Rudi Garcia's second-placed Roma side.

With as many substitute appearances as starts this season, Destro has netted four times but hasn't registered a goal since late October, going 359 minutes—or nearly four full matches—without a goal. 

That's disconcerting because although the Azzurri forward is a goal-poaching extraordinaire, he does little else to impact the game.

This season, Destro has mimicked a black hole, completing an abysmal 8.3 passes per contest, highlighting a total aversion to link-up play.

In contrast, Jeremy Menez, who has seen the lion's share of centre-forward minutes in Inzaghi's 4-3-3, is averaging 32.3 completed passes. That stark difference shows Destro wouldn't really fit with Milan's interchanging attack.

That's not necessarily a bad thing—Milan rank in the middle of the pack in goals scored on the season and could certainly use a target man, as Giampaolo Pazzini hasn't found his footing under the new management. 

Playing with a classic No. 9 such as Destro would necessitate a bit of a change in Inzaghi's philosophy. Menez is arguably playing the best football of his career as a false nine, but Pippo's 4-3-3 doesn't accommodate both positions.

Antonio Calanni/Associated Press

It's a nice tactical permutation, one Inzaghi could use to give the opposition a different look—switching between the clever interplay Menez offers and Destro's classic poacher's approach would force the opposition to make difficult adjustments. 

While Destro is a clear fit at the San Siro, it's difficult to see why Roma would be interested in swapping their Azzurri forward for his Milan counterpart.

Even the evergreen Totti will eventually retire, leaving Destro and the untested Antonio Sanabria as the only options at striker.

Adding El Shaarawy to a wing corps that already features three players—Florenzi, Iturbe and Ljajic—aged 23 or younger and the resurgent Gervinho seems a bit superfluous. 

If Milan were to lose their mohawked talisman, Giacomo Bonaventura, Alessio Cerci, Keisuke Honda, Niang and even Menez—who would likely move out wide should Destro arrive—could compensate for El Shaarawy's departure in the interim, but none hold No. 92's long-term promise.  

Cerci is at the San Siro on loan and will likely leave as soon as it expires. If he shows better than expected, Milan will be unable to afford the former Torino star, and if he struggles on his return to Serie A, would Milan really want to keep him around?

Niang should be loaned out to a club that will afford him the playing time he needs to work on his final ball. An intriguing talent, Niang will need some time before he's truly prepared to be an impact player for the Rossoneri. Throwing him in as El Shaarawy's in-house replacement could be a little rash. 

Bonaventura will be a key player for years to come and Honda was brilliant in the early going. The Japan international is 28, however, and while he's still got plenty left in the tank, a few more years will equal a few more yards of pace lost, making it a little more challenging for him to cut it out wide. 

Given Milan's current financial situation, the front office must be forward thinking and aim to retain as much young talent as possible, so they're well-placed to compete for the Scudetto for years to come.

Destro would be a great fit, but there is value in keeping El Shaarawy, who has reiterated time after time that he wants to remain with Milan.

Loyalty is a rare commodity in football today, and having players—especially ones who've shown flashes of superstardom—who want to play for your club is invaluable. 

Football-wise, swapping El Shaarawy for Destro would give the Diavolo a more balanced side and more options for Inzaghi, but parting with the explosive winger—who is also their most marketable player—would be another short-sighted move by the Milan board.