Which 2015 NBA Draft Targets Are Rising, Falling Most in Early Conference Play?
The projected 2015 NBA draft field seems to be strengthening by the week, with freshmen coming into their own and breakout upperclassmen emerging.
Now that conference play is underway, scouts can begin taking each prospect's performance a little more seriously.
While it allows them to pinpoint the real deals, it also helps them start weeding out those whose strong early seasons may have been a result of inferior competition.
Kelly Oubre Jr., Kansas, 6'7", G, Freshman
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After struggling to find the floor the first month of the season, Kelly Oubre Jr. has quietly emerged as one of Kansas' key contributors, averaging 13.5 points and seven boards over his last six games.
He's caught fire from deep, making 14 of his last 28 attempts while shooting 45.7 percent behind the arc on the season.
We're just now starting to see what fueled all the hype surrounding him out of high school. At 6'7", he can handle the ball, score off the dribble and stretch the court as a shooter.
Oubre ultimately has the potential to bring all sorts of versatility to the table, from his diverse offensive attack to his defensive tools.
And given his electric athletic ability, which drives his big-time NBA potential, scouts aren't likely to dock him too heavily for his slow start.
With Oubre appearing to have officially cemented himself into Kansas' rotation for good, look for him to do the same in the lottery conversation.
Isaiah Taylor, Texas, 6'1", PG, Sophomore
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After missing 10 games with a wrist injury, Isaiah Taylor has been pretty underwhelming since returning, having combined to shoot 9-of-35 (25.7 percent) over a three-game stretch.
He hasn't been much better as a playmaker or decision-maker either, given his 10-turnover-to-10-assist ratio during the span.
What makes it worse—Oklahoma smoked Texas by 21 on January 5, and Oklahoma State beat it by 11 on Saturday.
At 6'1", 170 pounds without much of a jumper (5-of-19 from three in 2014), it's even more important for Taylor to showcase his game management and facilitating skills.
Maybe he just needs to find a rhythm, considering he only got three games in before the injury, but he'll need to find it quick if he wants to generate any 2015 draft interest.
Bobby Portis, Arkansas, 6'11", PF, Sophomore
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Bobby Portis may ultimately be the most underappreciated NBA prospect in the country. He just went off Sunday on Vanderbilt's Damian Jones for 32 points and 11 rebounds (nine offensive) on 13 made field goals.
And it wasn't exactly a one-game breakout fluke—Portis scored 21 points a few days earlier against Georgia and now has six 20-plus-point outings on the year.
While one of the knocks on Portis has always been his lack of presence on the glass, he's actually pulled in at least nine boards in six of his last seven games.
Offensively, he's exceptionally skilled, from his back-to-the-basket post game, where he can do a drop step into a hook or fall away over his shoulder, to his sweet mid-range jumper (39.6 percent on two-point jumpers). Portis has even hit nine of his first 15 three-point attempts.
He isn't the most explosive athlete or overwhelming defender, and that may prevent teams from reaching on his limited perceived upside. But if we're talking about projected value picks in 2015—guys who are going to surprise after getting passed on in the lottery—I'd have Portis ranked right near the top of the list.
Caris LeVert, Michigan, 6'7", SG, Junior
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It's not Caris LeVert's fault Michigan has six losses, but he hasn't exactly done enough to prevent them from piling up—especially given the breakout expectations tied to him.
Michigan went down to Purdue on January 3 without much of a fight from LeVert, who finished 2-of-8 with six points in 38 minutes.
Earlier in December, LeVert shot a combined 7-of-29 during a three-game span that resulted in losses to Eastern Michigan, Arizona and SMU.
Scouts should be well aware that he's Michigan's most targeted weapon, but with Glenn Robinson III and Nik Stauskas out of the picture, you'd imagine the Wolverines were hoping for a bigger offensive jump than the additional 1.9 points he's averaging this season.
LeVert continues to struggle scoring inside the arc, as he's shooting just 31.9 percent on two-point jumpers after shooting 31.1 percent last season.
His size, playmaking and 40-percent three-point stroke still fuel first-round potential, but while he's plateaued, there could be others leapfrogging him on draft boards.
Trey Lyles, Kentucky, 6'10", PF, Freshman
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From his sharp mid-range game to his exceptional basketball IQ, Trey Lyles has arguably looked like Kentucky's most polished all-around forward.
Considering his tiny 19.9 percent usage rate in the Wildcats' loaded lineup, his pedestrian numbers aren't as important as the ways he's gone about generating them.
Lyles is making 46.7 percent of his two-point jumpers, having showcased his textbook shooting mechanics and fluidity, both off the catch and the one-dribble pull-up.
He sunk three of them against Louisville on December 27 while adding nine boards and four assists.
Still, Lyles projects more as a power forward at the NBA level, without as much lateral quickness to defend the perimeter. And though he's often forced out of position at the 3, it's been good to see him look more comfortable on the interior lately, as he's blocked five shots combined against conference opponents Texas A&M and Ole Miss.
Plus, on the year, he's finishing at a strong 79.2 percent clip at the rim while sporting a solid 17.5 percent defensive rebounding percentage.
With 6'10" size, the ability to shoot, pass, face up and attack, Lyles has physical tools and a sharp skill level that should help neutralize some of his athletic limitations.
He's got high-end role player potential at the NBA level, which could be enough to draw late-lottery to mid-first-round interest.
Norman Powell, UCLA, 6'4", SG, Senior
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The breakout season looked like it was on for Norman Powell, until UCLA's competition picked up and his game fell off.
Powell shot 3-of-11 against Gonzaga on December 13 and 1-of-13 against Kentucky a week later.
And against Utah in conference play, he finished 3-of-8 without making much noise.
To no surprise, all three of those resulted in losses for UCLA, which was counting on Powell to emerge as the team's most trusted offensive option as a senior.
Instead, as his touches have increased, his efficiency has plummeted. He's shooting just 42.9 percent, down from 53.3 percent last year, while his turnover rate has doubled from a season ago.
He's at least shooting the long ball better—38 percent from downtown—but at 6'4" without the ability to create (1.9 assists per game), his appeal as a first-round option (and soon-to-be 22-year-old) seems to be dwindling.
Robert Upshaw, Washington, 7'0", C, Junior
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By leading the country in shot-blocking, Robert Upshaw has made it easy to attract NBA attention, particularly given the value of rim protection in the pros.
He's blocking a ridiculous 4.1 shots in only 23.3 minutes per game and 16.45 percent of his opponents' possessions when on the floor.
At 7'0" with long, giant arms and a solid 250-pound frame, Upshaw also has the feet to match the NBA big-man tools.
Of his 66 blocked shots, 50 of them have been away from the rim. He's even swatted five three-pointers on the year.
And he's now made at least five field goals in four consecutive games. His team unfortunately didn't win any of them, but that's no reflection on Upshaw, who continues to finish in the paint, rebound his area and shrink the rim Washington defends.
No shooting touch (45.2 percent from the line) hurts his outlook, but for mid-to-late first-round teams searching for size and interior defense, Upshaw has emerged as an interesting option.
Jarell Martin, LSU, 6'10", SF/PF, Sophomore
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After a standout freshman year, some pegged Jarell Martin as a potential 2015 first-round pick. And though his numbers are up with the extra minutes and touches, he's struggled mightily against quality competition, particularly as of late.
Martin shot just 3-of-10 for nine points in a loss to Missouri on Thursday and followed with another 3-of-10 showing (seven points) in 39 minutes against Georgia Saturday night.
Between LSU's two SEC games and matchups against power conference teams such as West Virginia, Texas Tech and Clemson, Martin is shooting 34.4 percent and averaging a whopping 4.4 personal fouls (fouled out in three of those games).
We were also expecting his jumper to come around, given the promise he left by hitting 27 triples at a 33-percent clip in 2013-14. Only he's making just 28.1 percent of his threes so far on the year.
Martin has put up some big lines early on, and he's definitely got talent worth watching, but unless he starts taking it to credible opponents, it might not mean much in the long run.
Devin Booker, Kentucky, 6'6", SG, Freshman
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When you can knock down shots with as much range and accuracy as Devin Booker, being one-dimensional isn't as big of a red flag.
Booker has been ridiculous from downtown, having hit 16 of his last 21 three-point attempts and 30 of 60 on the year.
ESPN Insider's Chad Ford recently touched (subscription required) on Booker's rising draft stock: "Booker isn't a great athlete and doesn't necessarily bring a lot of other elite skills to the table, but his shot is so pure that more and more scouts are talking about him as the best shooter in the draft."
At 6'6", Booker has excellent size for an NBA 2-guard, and though he doesn't jump off the screen as a high-flyer, his body control has translated to 9-of-10 finishes in transition and 14-of-17 made shots at the rim altogether.
He's also a smart player overall (0.9 turnovers per game), which plays a bit to his NBA role player appeal.
Chances are nobody reaches on Booker, a projected specialist, but he's quietly established himself as a late first-round option for teams seeking out snipers.
“If you give him an inch, he can shoot (the) ball. We’d like to see him put it on the floor a little bit more because he is capable," Kentucky assistant coach Kenny Payne told Larry Vaught of Centralkynew.com. "What can you say about a kid with a stroke like that? He’s a threat no matter where he is on the floor.”
Andrew Harrison, Kentucky, 6'6", PG, Sophomore
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It's not that Andrew Harrison has looked horrible—it's that he hasn't shown much progress. It doesn't help that 5'9" freshman Tyler Ulis, who got the nod over Harrison down the stretch in Kentucky's overtime win against Texas A&M on Saturday, has been the more reliable guard.
After finishing 1-of-6 with six turnovers against Louisville December 27, Harrison followed up by shooting a combined 4-of-17 through the Wildcats' first two conference games.
The 6'6" size and ball-handling skills still drive enticing NBA potential, but at this point, Harrison hasn't done a very good job of convincing scouts there's a chance of reaching it.
He's now shooting a disastrous 34.4 percent from the floor despite the mismatch his physical tools create at the position.
Harrison isn't very athletic or explosive to begin with. Unless it clicks over the next two months, it's just tough to imagine him making an NBA roster anytime soon.
Justin Anderson, Virginia, 6'6", SG/SF, Junior
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The longer Justin Anderson's hot shooting streak continues, the better chance he has at convincing scouts it's not a fluke.
We've been expecting him to cool off for a couple of weeks now, but Anderson just continues to light it up, having shot above 40 percent from downtown with at least two three-point makes in each of his last seven games.
He's now shooting an absurd 56.3 percent behind the arc with six more made triples than all of last year.
Between the revamped jumper and Anderson's active athleticism, he's suddenly emerged on the radar as a strong three-and-D NBA prospect.
Of course, it wouldn't be a good look if he goes ice cold from outside, given his limitations as a shot creator and playmaker and the fact he's shot below 31 percent from deep in each of his first two seasons at Virginia.
But if he's able to consistently keep making them, even if his efficiency falls, which it probably will, there could be legitimate first-round love once all the young studs are off the board.
Chris McCullough, Syracuse, 6'10", PF, Freshman
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It might be a little harsh to pounce on Chris McCullough after news he'd suffered a season-ending torn ACL Sunday night, but the NBA draft game is unforgiving.
The injury came at a pretty rough time, as McCullough had hit the wall hard this past month, having shot just 9-of-34 (26.7 percent) over his final eight games without scoring in double figures in any of them.
The problem for McCullough is that even if he does return to school, chances are he'll miss a good chunk of next season anyway. And who knows how long it will take him to relocate his rhythm?
Nerlens Noel declared for the 2013 draft after tearing his ACL in February, though many had viewed him as as a top-three pick before he went down.
Spencer Dinwiddie is probably a better guy for McCullough to relate to—he was a borderline late-first round option last year prior to tearing his ACL in January. But he declared anyway, likely knowing that delaying the process without knowing how he'd recover was riskier than leaving hurt. Dinwiddie was taken in the second round.
Though still a freshman, McCullough will be 20 years old in February. If he returned next year and struggled following his recovery, at 21 years old, his stock could dip even lower.
Don't be too surprised if McCullough makes the jump this June and sells himself strictly on potential—even if he hasn't yet shaken the crutches.
Still, whether it's this year or the next, breaking into the first round just became a much taller task.
All advanced stats courtesy of Hoop-Math.com (subscription required), sports-reference.com, ESPN.com. All basis stats courtesy of ESPN.com. Figures are accurate as of games completed Jan. 12.
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