A Scout's Take on the NFC Divisional Matchup Between the Cowboys and Packers

The NFC divisional playoff game between the Dallas Cowboys and the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field on Sunday afternoon looks to be a great game.

Both teams won their respective divisions and finished with identical 12-4 records. The Packers have the home-field advantage over the Cowboys because they had a better record in the NFC.

Quarterback Tony Romo of the Cowboys led the NFL with a 113.2 passer rating. His counterpart in Green Bay, Aaron Rodgers, was second with a 112.2 rating.

In terms of overall numbers, Rodgers has the advantage. No. 12 threw 38 touchdown passes versus just five interceptions for 4,381 yards. Romo threw 34 touchdown passes versus nine picks for 3,705 yards.

Both teams have great running backs as well. DeMarco Murray of the Cowboys led the NFL in rushing with 1,845 yards, plus he had 13 touchdowns. Eddie Lacy of the Packers had 1,139 yards rushing and nine touchdowns.

Both players make big contributions in the passing game as well.

Speaking of the passing game, three of the better wide receivers in the NFL will be playing in this game. Dez Bryant of the Cowboys had 88 catches for 1,320 yards and 16 touchdowns (which led the NFL).

Meanwhile, the Packers have a dynamic duo in Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb. Nelson had 98 receptions for 1,519 yards and 13 touchdowns, while Cobb had 91 catches for 1,287 and 12 touchdowns.

Both the Cowboys and the Packers have defenses that are much improved over last season. The Packers especially have been much better the last half of the 2014 season.

That's why I wanted to get a take on the game from one of the best in the business, scout Chris Landry. Landry was on 620 WDAE's Steve Duemig Show on Friday, which was hosted by Steve Carney for the first hour.

The first thing I asked Landry was about the improvement of the run defense of the Packers over the second half of the season, when the team moved outside linebacker Clay Matthews inside at times and also increased the playing time of Sam Barrington at inside linebacker.

I mentioned that if the Packers can minimize the effectiveness of running back DeMarco Murray, then they can go focus on going after Romo and his sore back.

"I expect Dom Capers to employ some run-blitzes and try to get that downhill running game going laterally a little bit," Landry said. "That's the key. If you look at the Cowboys, if they run the football for 34 [minutes] time of possession, then they win the game.

"If they [the Packers] keep it down to 28 or 29, then you have a good chance of beating them. But if they are running the football and controlling the game, then that probably means they are winning the game.

"I think that if it gets into a shootout, I think Dallas can win it, but it's going to be more difficult for them. [Running the football] is what has made Dallas successful, mainly their defense. Because their defense is playing 15-18 snaps fewer a game, which is keeping them fresher.

"And although this is not a very good Dallas defense, it's very well-coached by former Bucs coach Rod Marinelli, and they are turning the ball over, creating some turnovers. Those are things to look forward to as far as keys in this game for the Packers and Cowboys to have success."

I then asked Landry about the great success that running back Eddie Lacy of the Packers has had late in the season the last couple of years as well as the 141 yards rushing he had against the Cowboys last season.

"It's because he's a downhill back. He's a physical back," Landry said. "That's the way you want to run in the cold weather. Sometimes the footing is not as good, because the grass is dormant or is dead in some cases where it gets chewed up, so it's tougher to cut in some cases. And that's why he is so very good."

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Like all games, especially playoff games, the game could hinge on the amount of turnovers. Landry talked about that subject as well.

"Turnovers are always important. The Packers lead the NFL with a plus-14 turnover margin," Landry said. "And Dallas is a little more mistake-prone. I think controlling the line of scrimmage and winning the turnover margin is going to be key."

The Cowboys and Packers have two of the better offensive lines in the NFL now. The Packers were sixth in total offense this year in the league, while the Cowboys were seventh.

As Landry said, the Packers were first in the NFL in turnover-margin statistics, while the Cowboys were ranked ninth with a plus-nine turnover margin.

The Cowboys also lost twice as many fumbles (14) as the Packers did in 2014.

Based on those statistics, the Packers look to be in good shape for Sunday's game against the Cowboys. But the team also has to play as well at home on Sunday as it did in the regular season when it was 8-0 at home. Why?

Dallas was 8-0 on the road.

The Packers outscored their opponents by a 318-to-163 margin at Lambeau. Rodgers also threw 25 touchdown passes without throwing any interceptions at home this season.

The Packers need more of the same on Sunday. The Cowboys know how tough it is to win in Green Bay. The Boys had a bad experience the last time they played at Lambeau Field in 2010, when they were whipped by the Packers 45-7.

Dallas had four turnovers in that game, and Green Bay had none.

The Packers went on to win Super Bowl XLV later that season—at the home of the Cowboys, coincidentally.

Time will tell what happens on Sunday, but I agree with Landry and his keys for the game. The team that best controls the line of scrimmage and wins the turnover battle will most likely win this game.