NFL Playoff Picks 2015: Odds, Prop Bets, Predictions for Final Divisional Games

If Saturday's NFL slate produced a surprising amount of offense, a repeat script wouldn't be particularly surprising for the final two games of the weekend.  Sunday's divisional round games will pit four of the NFL's top six scoring offenses against each other, making the potential for fireworks rather high.

Of course, higher-scoring games also introduce a wider variance of outcomes, something that could make bettors uneasy.  The Green Bay Packers and Denver Broncos are both heavy favorites at home, where neither has lost a game.  However, despite dubious defenses, the Dallas Cowboys and Indianapolis Colts have the firepower to match the favorites score for score—a formula that could easily result in a backdoor cover.

But while the game spread will receive the most action, some enticing prop bets offer alternative routes for profit.  Using the lines from Odds Shark and prop bets from Bovada, let's break down the two remaining matchups to see where bettors may find value on the board.

Cowboys at Packers

Pick ATS: Dallas (+6)

This contest essentially boils down to the Cowboys' ability to control possession and convert third downs.  Aaron Rodgers and Co. will move the ball on offense (more on that in a second), so for the underdogs to keep this close, they must execute well in the high-variance situations, namely in the red zone and on third down.

According to Pro-Football-Reference, Dallas averaged just 6.84 yards to go on third downs during the regular season, the seventh-best mark in the league.  Similarly, Green Bay opponents only averaged 6.59 yards to go on third down, the third-lowest mark in the league.  Given that the Cowboys have built a steadier offense this year by lifting the big-play burden off Tony Romo, it seems likely they will be able to sustain that pattern a week after Romo took on greater responsibility against a stifling Detroit Lions run defense.

Putting the burden on Romo shouldn't be a worry for the Cowboys.  The "choker" narrative surrounding Romo has always been statistically ridiculous, and considering how well he has played on the road this season, the Cowboys are one of the few offenses in the league that could reasonably hang with Green Bay's prolific offense at home:

It's a given that Dallas will need to score more than 30 points to stay in this game, barring a barrage of big plays on defense and/or special teams.  DeMarco Murray should find success against a run defense that ranked 24th against the run based on Football Outsiders' DVOA metric.  The Cowboys have some favorable matchups—particularly Jason Witten against the Packers linebackers—so expect a steady Romo to help Dallas cover this spread.

Best Prop Bet: Aaron Rodgers Over 290.5 passing yards (-115)

Chris Graythen/Getty Images

Of course, even if Romo and the Cowboys offense play well, it's entirely possible the Packers run away.  This passing line seems about 10 to 15 yards too low, considering how Rodgers has played at Lambeau throughout his career.  Moreover, the under line on this bet offers the same odds, making this arguably the best bet of the weekend.

In eight home games this season, Rodgers passed for more than 300 yards every time he played four quarters.  He went under after leaving early during a pair of blowouts against the Minnesota Vikings and Carolina Panthers, while he "only" threw for 226 yards after missing part of the Week 17 contest against Detroit due to his well-documented calf injury.

That calf might cause some to hesitate at taking this bet.  While Rodgers can beat defenses from the pocket, he (along with Russell Wilson) is arguably the league's best passer late in the down, as his ability to extend plays while waiting for coverage assignments to disintegrate is unmatched.  Though he's unlikely to be 100 percent the rest of the season with a partial tear, it seems that the hullabaloo is a bit overblown:

The Cowboys have gotten by defensively with turnovers, but they also allowed 7.2 yards per attempt during the regular season, the eighth-worst mark in the league.  Rodgers has not thrown a home pick since Dec. 2012, which means that Dallas will simply need to win its one-on-one matchups to survive.  That's a near-impossible task for any defense, so look for Rodgers to pile up the yardage.

Colts at Broncos

Pick ATS: Denver (-7)

Even with the uproar surrounding Peyton Manning's declining production and potential health issues, it's hard to see where the Colts have an advantage in this game.  Andrew Luck is capable of an exemplary game at any time, but it would be a misnomer to suggest that he needs to "carry" the Colts, since he already does so on a weekly basis:

Moreover, Luck's track record suggests that he'll have a tougher time carrying a heavy burden away from home.  When he has had to throw more than 40 passes on the road in his career, the Colts are just 5-8, with a cumulative point differential of minus-118, per Pro-Football-Reference.  For sake of comparison, that's the exact same point differential the New York Jets finished with this season.

Indy's record against winning teams in those games is also just 1-7, with the lone win coming against this year's 9-7 Houston Texans squad.  Luck will likely be alone in attempting to overcome a Denver defense that ranks third in DVOA against the run, especially when considering that a banged-up Colts offensive line is down to three backups in the interior.

By both DVOA and yards per attempt, Denver is superior to Indy in all four primary facets of the game—pass offense, pass defense, run offense and run defense.  The most likely outcome involves Luck committing multiple turnovers as he fruitlessly tries to compensate for a highly inferior supporting cast, giving this game significant second-half blowout potential.

Best Prop Bet: Demaryius Thomas Scores a TD (-115)

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Like the Rodgers bet, this prop offers the same odds on both the over and under.  Though Manning's recent statistical decline might give bettors some pause, the peripheral stats suggest that his favorite target is exceedingly likely to find the end zone.

Source: Statmilk

Thomas scored 11 times this year but just once over the last month, a stretch that coincided with Manning's thigh injury and a suddenly run-heavy offensive identity.  However, even in that relative dry spell, Thomas received 10 red-zone targets, per Pro-Football-Reference—the second-highest total in the league over that span.

Astoundingly, Thomas caught exactly none of those targets.  That's a massive statistically improbable outlier; with Manning at the helm over the past three seasons, Thomas had caught 40 of 70 red-zone targets for 19 touchdowns before his recent drought.  

The Colts will likely shadow Thomas with top cover corner Vontae Davis, but that shouldn't deter bettors.  Thomas has scored against top cover corners like Patrick Peterson and Brent Grimes this year while also piling up 127 yards when matched up against Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner of the New England Patriots.  The Broncos' top receiver is matchup-proof, and with a week of recuperation for Manning, expect Thomas to revisit his familiar locale in the end zone.