Cowboys vs. Packers: Complete Divisional Game Preview for Green Bay
To each and every person who has uttered the words “Ice Bowl II” since Sunday, I have a favor to ask of you.
Stop.
When the Dallas Cowboys (13-4) travel to Lambeau Field to take on the Green Bay Packers (12-4) at 1:05 p.m. ET (Fox) Sunday, it won’t go down as one of the coldest games ever in NFL history, as was the case when these teams met for the 1967 NFL Championship Game.
"Sunday's game compared to the 1967 Ice Bowl game. pic.twitter.com/QgxiDzUnrL
— FOX6 Weather (@FOX6Weather) January 8, 2015"
But, the matchup has all the makings of a classic. The Cowboys are a perfect 8-0 on the road, and the Packers are a perfect 8-0 at home, marking the first time since the league went to a 16-game season that an undefeated road team will travel to an undefeated home team in the playoffs.
Much of the pregame talk has centered around the left leg of Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers—particularly his calf—which "has a slight tear in it in addition to be significantly strained," according to ESPN NFL Insider Adam Schefter Thursday.
The winner of this game advances to the NFC Championship. For Green Bay, it would be their second trip back in five seasons, while Dallas hasn’t made the conference title game since the 1995 season.
Week 17 Recap
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As Aaron Roders tumbled to the turf late in the second quarter, collapsing as if a sniper had shot a bullet through his left leg, the entirety of Packers nation held its collective breath.
The exhale came when Rodgers, still clad in his green and gold uniform, strutted out from the end zone tunnel and made his way to the sideline. Once there, he threw passes to his receivers, jogged lightly and practiced taking his drop.
And then he made his way on to the field, completing 11-of-13 passes for a touchdown upon his valiant return, as well as rushing for a score on an impromptu quarterback sneak, leading the Packers over the Lions in a wild 30-20 victory that gave Green Bay its fourth NFC North championship and a first-round bye.
NFL Network reporter Stacey Dales summed Rodgers’ night up nicely:
"I mean, is there anything that Rodgers hasn't done in this game? Gutsy, tough, gritty, selfless. Pick the adjective, he's been it.
— StaceyDales (@StaceyDales) December 29, 2014"
The Packers jumped out to a 14-0 lead, thanks to a 55-yard punt return touchdown from Micah Hyde and a touchdown pass to Randall Cobb from Rodgers. That’s the play on which Rodgers crumbled to the ground.
Matt Stafford found Calvin Johnson in the end zone to end the second quarter and begin the third, knotting the game at 14-all. But Rodgers led the offense to two touchdown drives on its next three possessions after he came back from the locker room, putting the game out of reach and giving the Packers a playoff bye for the first time since the 2011 season.
Rodgers played great, and he would not have been able to do so without some help, as Pro Football Talk’s Michael David Smith says:
"Packers' O-line doing a nice job of protecting Rodgers since he came back from the calf injury. Lions not getting much pressure.
— Michael David Smith (@MichaelDavSmith) December 28, 2014"
News and Notes
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Healthy as a Horse
Dom Capers’ defensive unit is as healthy as its been entering the postseason in his six years as the Packers 'defensive coordinator, writes Weston Hodkiewicz of the Green Bay Press-Gazette.
In the Wild Card playoff game vs. the Niners last year, the Packers resorted to playing rookie defensive lineman Datone Jones out of position at outside linebacker due to injuries to Clay Matthews, Nick Perry, Mike Neal and Andy Mulumba.
Red-Zone Zombies
After coming up empty-handed on goal-to-go situations in recent weeks vs. Buffalo and Detroit, it might be time to worry about the Packers’ red-zone offense, writes Tyler Dunne of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Dunne notes that the Packers have scored touchdowns on just nine of their last 20 red-zone opportunities (45 percent). Meanwhile, the Cowboys get into the end zone at a 64 percent clip.
You Talkin’ Bout Practice?
Are you concerned about Aaron Rodgers’ lack of practice time this week? Aaron Rodgers isn’t. That’s according to Dunne, who writes that those around Rodgers aren’t too worried either. “Everybody's so concerned about them,” Rodgers told Dunne. “I'm not. And my teammates aren't either. We'd like to get out there at some point and move around a little bit. It just depends on how it's feeling.”
Injury Report
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| Player | Position | Injury Status |
| Josh Boyd (Knee) | DT | Probable |
| Davon House (Shoulder) | CB | Probable |
| Sean Richardson (Knee) | S | Questionable |
| Aaron Rodgers (Calf) | QB | Probable |
| Josh Sitton (Toe) | G | Probable |
Injury statuses courtesy Packers.com.
In case you've been living under a rock the past two or three weeks, yes, Aaron Rodgers has a strained calf. And like I mentioned before, Adam Schefter reported Thursday that he also has a slight tear in addition to the strain. But Rodgers, McCarthy and any Packer asked will tell you they have the utmost confidence in No. 12.
A bit of good news is the possible return of House, who practiced in limited form on Wednesday and Thursday.
"#Packers CB Davon House (shoulder) said he plans on playing Sunday. Could boost Green Bay's secondary against Dez Bryant and company.
— Ryan Wood (@ByRyanWood) January 7, 2015"
The rest of the Packers should be good to go on Sunday.
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X-Factors and Matchups to Watch
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Demarco Murray vs. Packers Run Defense
In last season’s matchup between these two teams, Demarco Murray had himself a very nice day on the ground, rushing for 134 yards and a touchdown, including a long of 41. Somehow, though, he only totaled 18 carries. This season, the NFL’s leading rusher has carried the ball at least 19 times in each of his 17 games played, totaling an astounding 471 touches (27.7 per game).
After a slow start, the Packers' run defense has been a strength of the team since the bye, allowing just 86.4 yards per game in the last eight contests (fifth-best) and 3.6 yards per rush (sixth-best).
Packers Offensive Line vs. Cowboys Defensive Line
In Green Bay’s Week 17 win over Detroit, the front five (from left to right) of David Bakhtiari, Josh Sitton, Corey Linsley, T.J. Lang and Bryan Bulaga played near-flawless football, allowing a hobbled Aaron Rodgers time in the pocket to slice and dice the talented Detroit secondary.
Dallas’ defensive is nowhere near as talented as Detroit’s—former Bears defensive tackle Henry Melton might be their most recognizable name—but the whole is greater than the sum of its parts. That’s where the term “wefence” comes in; the defense lacks an All-Pro talent, but the players play smart, they play their gaps and they’re well coached.
Morgan Burnett
The fifth-year safety is finally living up to his lofty second contract. He recorded a ridiculous eight stops at Tampa Bay per Pro Football Focus (subscription required) and has graded positively against the run in 11 of 16 games this season, including a 7.7 grade (out of 11.4) in the last four games.
His play against Demarco Murray and the Cowboys’ run game will go a long way toward deciding the victor of this game.
Prediction
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If you read and listen to all that’s been written and said leading up to this game, you’d think that the Cowboys were favorites and rewarded with a first-round bye for their work in the regular season.
And so it is that the Dallas bandwagon is in full swing, even though the Cowboys have yet to make it to a conference championship game in the Tony Romo era.
But, that’s what makes this matchup so great. The Cowboys (and Romo in particular) have been great on the road. The Packers (and Rodgers in particular) have been great at home.
"Aaron Rodgers had best home passer rating ever in @NFL season (133.2). Tony Romo had 4th best road passer rating ever in a season (121.8)
— Randall Liu (@RLiuNFL) January 7, 2015"
The game will be played Sunday, and we’ll see which team wins in the battle of unstoppable force vs. immovable object.
Prediction: Packers 33, Cowboys 24
Odds by Odds Shark: Green Bay (-5.5)
Peter Sowards covers the Green Bay Packers for Bleacher Report.
Follow @PeterSowards on Twitter.
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