Duke Basketball: Blue Devils' Keys in Showdown vs. Louisville

A week ago, the upcoming visit to Louisville was looking like a milestone matchup. Now, it's somehow become even bigger—as much of a must-win as Duke has had in years.

Following back-to-back losses, including a blowout home setback to Miami (Fla.) on Monday, the fourth-ranked Blue Devils (14-2) take on No. 6 Louisville (15-2) in an ACC showdown, looking to right the ship and get legendary coach Mike Krzyzewski back on track for his 1,000th career victory.

This game would have been Krzyzewski's first chance at 1,000 had Duke remained unbeaten. Instead, he's stuck at 998 after losing at North Carolina State and then by 16 to Miami.

With the chance for a landmark victory no longer in the cards, here's a look at what is key to Saturday's trip to Louisville for the Blue Devils.

Getting the Freshmen Back on Track

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With Duke having three freshman starters, it was inevitable that these players would face some struggles and eventually hit a wall. That this is happening at the same time is what's causing the problems.

Center Jahlil Okafor, forward Justise Winslow and guard Tyus Jones average 40.2 points, 17.6 rebounds and 8.1 assists combined per game this season. But in the last three contests, each has had at least one bad game.

Okafor attempted only six shots in a win at Wake Forest, and on Tuesday he made just six of 13 field goals. Winslow, who had a breakout game with 20 points at Wake, has since combined for just 12 points on 4-of-19 shots in the next two games.

And Jones, who has started every game at the point for Duke, has hit a major wall since ACC play started. In four league games, he has made only six of 27 shots (and 1-of-8 from three-point range), and his assist numbers have also dropped.

Things aren't going to magically turn around at Louisville, but taking some pressure off the younger players by having Duke's few veterans make more contributions could help.

Find a Role for Sulaimon

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Rasheed Sulaimon averaged 11.6 points per game in 2012-13 in one of the best freshman seasons at Duke. But since then the 6'5" guard's production (and minutes) have consistently dipped, to where he's playing less than 20 minutes per game and averaging 8.1 points as a junior.

Though he's seen more time the last few games and registered four straight games with 10 or more points, his performances don't match his numbers. They've felt more like empty statistics, not ones that have positively contributed to the game.

As the only player on Duke's bench who sees significant minutes, Sulaimon has the opportunity to be a spark plug when he comes in. Yet his role doesn't seem to be defined; in some games (like against Miami) he's come in firing from outside, and in others he's been more of a glue guy or someone to run the offense through but without getting too involved in the scoring.

Unless Duke is going to start turning more to its less-used reserves, Sulaimon needs to have a clear job when he's out there and has to stick to that duty.

Make Louisville Pay for Double-Teaming Okafor

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The game plan is simple for most teams that face Duke: try not to let Jahlil Okafor dominate inside. This usually means putting a near-constant double-team on him, particularly when he gets the ball in the post.

But while Okafor is aware of this ahead of time, he's been showing frustration at the approach, and it's affected his play.

ESPN analyst Fran Fraschilla noted that the 6'11' freshman center "played impatiently" in the loss to Miami, failing to get into a rhythm because he let the Hurricanes' scheme mess with his head. Fraschilla said Okafor should have kicked the ball out quickly, then re-posted to get a better position, though that didn't often happen; instead, he gave it up and let up or forced up a shot.

Louisville figures to do much of the same, with the likes of forward Montrezl Harrell and a rotation of centers blanketing Okafor. Duke will continue to go to him, but the plays should be set up to counter this double-team and create better offensive opportunities for Okafor and off passes from him.

Discover Some Defense

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Duke is holding opponents to 42.8 percent shooting and 30.6 percent from three-point range for the 2014-15 season, but that's not how it's gone the last two games. In those losses, North Carolina State and Miami lit it up from all over the floor, with each shooting better than 50 percent overall and making 20 of 36 threes combined.

It's not that the Blue Devils' foes suddenly learned how to shoot or were getting incredibly lucky on all of those shots. There were some favorable bounces, but more than anything it boils down to this: Duke has stopped playing defense.

Suspect defense has been a recurring problem for Duke the last few seasons, something that seems to regularly pop up in the losses. It was evident when Mercer upset the Blue Devils in the second round of the NCAA tournament last March, as well as in several defeats in 2013-14, and it's popped up again now.

Normally, Duke doesn't need to be particularly stellar on the defensive end because it's always one of the more efficient offensive teams in the country. It's shooting 50.2 percent for the season, but since ACC play began, it hasn't done better than 47.4 percent and was down to 36.9 percent against NC State.

Feed off the Failure

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Duke hadn't lost back-to-back ACC games since February 2009. It hasn't lost at Cameron Indoor Stadium since March 2012, which ended the nation's longest active home-court win streak at 41 games. And its last two-game skid in conference play that were both by double digits had been way back in 1983.

To say the Blue Devils are in a bit of uncharted territory is an understatement. But it doesn't get any easier with a trip to Louisville as part of a five-game stretch that features four road games including three in a row.

After hosting Pittsburgh on Monday, Duke plays at St. John's, Notre Dame and Virginia. The possibility to lose six out of seven, an almost unheard-of run, is possible.

A win against the Cardinals would completely change things, though. For that to happen, Duke needs to feed off the pain and embarrassment of the past two losses—something coach Mike Krzyzewski expects will happen now.

"We're all on the same page now, after two losses and after getting our butt beat," Krzyzewski told Laura Keeley of the Raleigh News and Observer after Tuesday's loss to Miami. "We didn't just lose tonight. We got our butts beat tonight. In some respects, some of that is good. None of my teams have won here without losing. You just can't lose that much. That's it."

Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.