Keep or Cut Decisions for Lions 2015 Free Agents

One of the key facets of the Detroit Lions offseason is making tough decisions on their own free agents. Several major contributors on both sides of the ball will hit free agency once the postseason concludes.

Affordability is a major factor. The Lions will have some money to spend but not enough to go hog wild. Detroit currently has a little over $120 million already tied up in the returning contracts. Meanwhile, the salary cap is increasing:

"

NFL Management Council informed teams at league meeting today '15 cap projects b/n $138.6M-$141.8M. I bet it ends up higher. Often does

— Jason La Canfora (@JasonLaCanfora) December 10, 2014"

The Lions' brain trust, which includes vice chairman Bill Ford, general manager Martin Mayhew and team president Tom Lewand (pictured above left to right), has some interesting decisions to ponder between now and the onset of the free-agent signing period.

Here's some unsolicited help for Mayhew and Co. on what decisions they need to make with the key current Lions who will no longer be under contract after 2014.

Nick Fairley

Rick Osentoski/Associated Press

Whether or not to re-sign defensive tackle Nick Fairley is a truly tough decision for Mayhew and the Lions.

On the plus side:

• He's a dominant pass-rusher at times
• Got in the best shape of his career for 2014
• Finally displayed consistent effort and a team-first attitude
• Entering his athletic prime
• Uncertain depth chart at the position

Then there are the negatives:

• History of inconsistent play and apathetic effort in run support 
• Coming off a serious knee injury
• Only played well in a contract year

It's a real pickle. The 2014 Fairley would be worth a sizable contract, but can he be trusted to live up to it over the life of a new deal?

ESPN.com's Michael Rothstein is right on with his October assessment,

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The easy, obvious decision would be to part ways with Fairley if he wants a decent-sized contract. In this, his contract year, he gave them seven consecutive games of consistent, high-level play. For his career, though, he has been disruptive one game and disappeared the next. He has not played 16 games in a season, either -- another concern for a long-term deal. 

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Yet Rothstein also brings up an interesting compromise, one which makes a lot of sense for both sides. If Fairley is open to a short-term "prove it" deal, the Lions should pounce on it and extend the evaluation period. 

If he proves he's matured and reliable, the team could then reward him with a more lucrative long-term commitment. If not, the Lions can cut bait and move along in another year. 

That is really the only way he can stay. There are still too many unanswerable questions to pay Fairley the kind of money he desires for his immense potential. 

Verdict: Keep him, but only on a fiscally reasonable, team-friendly short-term deal. 

Rob Sims

Duane Burleson/Associated Press

I'm tempted to leave this slide blank other than to say sayonara to Detroit's starting left guard for the last five seasons, Rob Sims.

The 31-year-old is a declining player, an increasing liability in pass protection and never much of a force in run blocking. Witness his Pro Football Focus grades for the last three seasons:

	Overall	Pass Blocking	Run Blocking
2012	14.9	11.1	2.6
2013	0.2	2.0	-5.5
2014	-1.0	-3.1	-3.9

While he's durable, it's time for the Lions to move on. Let another team pay for his diminishing skills.

There will be options in free agency and the draft to find a replacement who can play at least as well as Sims going forward, and likely at a cheaper rate. He made $3.75 million in 2014. One potential option the Lions need to strongly consider is kicking current left tackle Riley Reiff inside to fill Sims' role. 

Sims was a valuable piece for most of his tenure, a respected locker-room presence and a solid player. He appears to see the writing on the wall:

"

Rob Sims told us he thought careers came to die in Detroit. Proud of bringing consistency to LG for the Lions past five years (80 starts)

— Justin Rogers (@Justin_Rogers) January 5, 2015"

Verdict: Thanks for the good years, but it's time to move on.

Rashean Mathis

Carlos Osorio/Associated Press

Rashean Mathis was quietly one of the better cornerbacks in the league in 2014 despite being 34 years old. He finished 12th in Pro Football Focus' corner rankings, helping key Detroit's massive improvement in yards per completion allowed. Detroit shaved almost two full yards off the 11.7 figure from 2013.

"

Rashean Mathis was thrown at 11 times yesterday and gave up just 5 completions. None of which were over 9 yards. #Lions

— Alex Reno (@alex_reno) December 22, 2014"

He's a natural fit for Teryl Austin's press-heavy defense. Mathis is also an absolute steal in terms of level of play versus salary. He made Spotrac's "Best-Value Team" for his strong play and inexpensive rate of just over $1 million. 

In a postseason interview session with reporters, Mathis indicated he wants to return...and hopefully for more than just one last year. Justin Rogers of MLive noted:

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On Monday, Mathis made it clear he wants to come back to Detroit. He loves the chemistry that's been forged in the defensive back room, where he, Glover Quin and James Ihedigbo provide leadership, not just for the group, but the team. Mathis has also embraced mentoring Slay both on and off the field.

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Mathis went unsigned for a bit on the open market last offseason. Don't expect that to happen again. Detroit needs to pony up for an invaluable member of the paper-thin secondary. Rewarding Mathis should be one of the Lions' top offseason priorities, as should be finding his eventual replacement.

Verdict: Keep him, but it's time for some young insurance behind him too.

Dominic Raiola

Jordan Mansfield/Getty Images

The longest-tenured Lion, center Dominic Raiola, has been through a lot in his 14 seasons in Detroit. He endured the entire Matt Millen reign of inept terror. He played every snap of every game in five different seasons where the team won four games or fewer. 

Raiola even experienced a late-career renaissance. In 2013, his 21.1 Pro Football Focus score was nearly double his next-closest campaign, which came one year earlier. 

Alas, the success was unsustainable. Raiola's play plummeted in 2014, as he finished 37th among all centers in PFF's rankings just one year after grading out second overall. Now 36, it's unrealistic to expect any rebound from the Hawaiian native.

Then there is the baggage...

He was suspended for the crucial Week 17 showdown with the Green Bay Packers for deliberately stomping on Chicago Bears defensive tackle Ego Ferguson. 

It was not his first disciplinary rodeo. He embarrassed both himself and the franchise during the loss to New England:

"

Raiola got 4 cheap shots in at the end of the #Patriots #Lions game a few weeks ago https://t.co/xGU0WrmA57

— Ben Volin (@BenVolin) December 21, 2014"

One year earlier, he made an idiot of himself in a pregame incident with the University of Wisconsin marching band. More acts of immature idiocy are nicely chronicled by Jonathan Lehman of the New York Post.

He might want to play one more year, but under no circumstances should it be in Detroit.

Verdict: Don't let the door hit you on the way out, Mr. Raiola.

Dan Orlovsky

Vaughn Ridley/Getty Images

Backup quarterback Dan Orlovsky earned $635,000 from Detroit to do nothing in 2014. The veteran journeyman never took a regular-season snap, as starter Matthew Stafford proved incredibly durable for the fourth year in a row. 

He did little to engender fan confidence in his second go-around in Detroit with an uneven preseason performance. Orlvosky entered the Jacksonville contest at Ford Field with boos raining down.

"

No love for Dan O from #Lions fans RT @KyleStrunk: We have the worst backup in the history if football..really we do. Please cut orlovsky.

— Paula Pasche (@paulapasche) August 28, 2014"

Fan hyperbole aside, there is some merit in bringing him back into the den. He knows the complex offensive scheme and has earned enough money in his career that a veteran minimum deal could hold appeal. 

With third-stringer Kellen Moore also an unrestricted free agent, it does make some sense to keep the more seasoned veteran over a player who has never been active for a NFL game. The free-agent pool is awfully shallow, which means change for the sake of change makes no sense. 

Still, his 2-10 career record as a starter and his infamous gaffe to help keep the 2008 Lions winless are hard to ignore.

Verdict: Keep him, but only if Orlovsky accepts the league minimum in 2015.

Ndamukong Suh

Tony Gutierrez/Associated Press

Defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh is the most decorated Detroit Lions player to ever hit unrestricted free agency. He will be the most coveted player on the open market as an impact talent many teams will see as a transformative force for their defense.

That is precisely why the Lions cannot allow Suh to leave Detroit. 

He is the most dominant interior defensive force in the league. He just earned his third first-team All-Pro honor and his fourth Pro Bowl berth. 

His Pro Football Focus numbers are fantastic. Per the site's game charting, Suh has 147 quarterback hurries over the last four regular seasons. That is 16 more hurries than the next defensive tackle, Cincinnati's Geno Atkins. 

Keeping him will not be cheap. NFL.com's Chris Wesseling opined Suh will earn the richest contract for any defensive player; he could top J.J. Watt's massive six-year, $100 million extension with the Houston Texans. 

Detroit has to pay him. The Lions tried—repeatedly—last offseason before breaking off negotiations during the season. Even though Suh holds the leverage, Detroit does hold a trump card: the franchise tag. 

"

If the Lions want to ensure Ndamukong Suh's return next season, it will be $26.87M to put a franchise tag on him.

— Joel Corry (@corryjoel) January 5, 2015"

Neither side wants it to come to that, but the Lions must use any means necessary to keep the linchpin of their top-rated defense. Hopefully, the two sides can agree to a long-term deal that doesn't cripple Detroit's ability to improve the team around Suh while also rewarding him with his just desserts. 

Verdict: To quote Teddy KGB from the movie Rounders, "Pay the man his money!"

Advanced statistics including snap counts are from Pro Football Focus, which requires a subscription for premium content. All other statistical info is from Pro Football Reference. Salary info is from Spotrac.