NFL Playoff Bracket 2015: Complete Guide to Sunday's Divisional Games
This NFL playoff weekend, it's all about the quarterbacks.
Look, anyone who's been reading my work in this space this season knows that I shy away from narratives or bottom-line thinking. Quarterbacks don't deserve "wins" as a stat any more (or less) than head coaches or defensive linemen. Teams win games, and though quarterbacks are easily the most important position on the field, teams can still win when passers play poorly and still lose when they play well.
Still...
It's difficult to ignore the quarterbacks this Sunday.
The first game features Dallas Cowboys passer Tony Romo and Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers. These were arguably the two best QBs in the NFL this season. To me, that's not only true, but I'm not sure No. 3 was all that close. Though both have very good teams around them, Romo and Rodgers have performed spectacularly this season, and the pair will be tested in the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field.
In the latter game, Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts meet up with his predecessor Peyton Manning and his new team, the Denver Broncos. Luck and Manning are known for carrying their teams, but both will need plenty of help in addition to being at the top of their games to win this weekend.
Quarterbacks aren't the only stories, though, and it's a tremendous weekend for football, so click ahead for everything you need to know about the two games Sunday.
The Starting Lineups
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Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers (1:05 p.m. ET on Fox)
- Stephen Nelson and Chris Simms on X-factors for Cowboys-Packers
- Full Cowboys-Packers Preview from Adam Lefkoe and Chris Simms
- Cowboys Preview from Featured Columnist John Owning
- Packers Preview from Featured Columnist Justis Mosqueda
Both of these are fantastic teams outside of the quarterbacks leading them, and both trend toward offensive performance rather than being a defensive powerhouse. Both teams have rushing attacks that wear down opponents, and both are...wait for it, wait to have your mind blown...really well coached.
Yes, the Cowboys are a well-coached team. They make adjustments on the fly about as well as any team in the NFL, and what defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli has done with his side of the ball this season is nothing short of extraordinary.
The Packers have the home-field advantage here, and frigid temps will play in their favor as well, but counting the Cowboys out entirely would be silly. Their style of play fits the cold perfectly, and they've been marvelous on the road this season.
Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos (4:40 p.m. ET on CBS)
- Nelson and Simms on X-factors for Colts-Broncos
- Full Colts-Broncos Preview from Lefkoe and Simms
- Colts Preview from Featured Columnist Kyle J. Rodriguez
- Broncos Preview from Featured Columnist Cecil Lammey
It's Andrew Luck against the all-time great quarterback he replaced in Indianapolis. It's also Luck attempting to continue building his legacy while Peyton Manning tries to ride off into the sunset and strengthen his already ironclad legacy all the more.
I see this game as being all about who starts the quickest. Both quarterbacks have protection problems, and although Luck's mobility and Manning's smarts help mitigate the pass rush, either quarterback is vulnerable when pass-rushers pin their ears back.
Ironically, both defenses can do just that, and both are far more comfortable worrying solely about the pass than having to stop the run as well. So, getting up 10-14 points could mean the end of the game for either team. The Broncos have a slight edge here as well since they have a quality run game that can slam the door on the Colts.
Second-Screen Swag
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Biggest Questions
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Is Peyton Manning Better?
Manning went through a rough stretch starting around Week 9 that lasted just long enough for critics to begin writing his career's obituary, and maybe his actual one as well. He went from last year's MVP to Old Man River in such a quick flash that it likely stunned everyone, because they missed the fact that his play has been steadily improving over the last couple of weeks.
That said, much of Manning's improvement has been based around a more balanced offense and running back C.J. Anderson. If the Broncos are forced into a pass-heavy attack against Indianapolis, it could make him revert to some of the bad play he had earlier in the year.
Can the Colts Running Game Do Anything...No, I Really Mean Anything?
The Colts running game isn't just putrid because of the running back situation, though things were certainly better with Ahmad Bradshaw in the fold thanks both to his tough running and his ability as a pass-blocker and pass protector—equating to a more balanced attack.
The line and even the play-calling and scheme around the run game all leave much to be desired. The Broncos have a really good rushing defense, and that means awful tough sledding for the Colts offense.
Are the Packers Ready for DeMarco Murray?
The Packers, on the other hand, don't have much of a rushing defense.
Dallas is bringing the heat to the freezing town of Green Bay, and it's a pretty good bet that the matchup in the trenches is going to tilt heavily toward the Cowboys when they have the ball.
The only real way to stop the run will be to commit extra men to the box, and that will open up a whole lot deep. The worst possible thing for Green Bay is if the Cowboys are able to rush effectively even with eight or nine in the box.
Can the Cowboys Go on the Road and Continue Their Incredible Run?
The Cowboys continue to do things people don't expect. They continue to prove they're a far more formidable opponent than anyone gave them credit for 12, six or even three months ago. They've also been fantastic on the road this season, which isn't how things are supposed to happen—especially for a team as "mentally weak" as the Cowboys.
I'm not sure how many times the Cowboys have to prove themselves, but this weekend would certainly go a long way.
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Important Matchups
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Tony Romo (QB Cowboys) vs. Julius Peppers and Clay Matthews (OLB Packers)
Romo was absolutely under duress for almost the entire game against Detroit last weekend. He responded...not so well. It wasn't his fault, nor was there much else one could really expect out of him, but he certainly wasn't elevating his play or the play of those around him either. It's nuanced, but it isn't so much something that he was at fault for—just a missed opportunity for setting himself truly apart in a rough situation.
This week, the Packers don't have quite the horses up front, but defensive coordinator Dom Capers' crew should only have to rush four or five at a time to get consistent pressure. If the Cowboys line holds up against Peppers and Matthews like it did against Ndamukong Suh and Co., it could be a long day for Romo if he's not at his best.
Ryan Clady (OT Broncos) vs. Colts Pass Rush
Meanwhile, I completely trust Manning to handle much of the Colts pass rush on his own. However, even he needs what many would consider the minimum level of resistance. Sadly, though he's been one of the better tackles in the NFL for some time, Ryan Clady's play was not up to par this season, and even that low bar has been limboed under by some really poor play this year.
Clady has to put up some sort of a struggle, or this is going to be a long day for Manning and a pretty painful morning after.
T.Y. Hilton (WR Colts) vs. Aqib Talib and Chris Harris Jr. (CB Broncos)
The Broncos will switch coverages against the Colts depending on who is in the slot (usually Reggie Wayne) and how that person is doing. Hilton, for his part, will look to move all over the field but find little respite, as both Broncos corners have been absolutely fantastic this season. Expect Harris to follow him into the slot anytime he tries to sneak in there to avoid Talib's press coverage.
Just as important as who covers Hilton is the diminutive receiver's concentration, though. Per ESPN's Mike Wells, Hilton's six drops in the playoffs lead the NFL over the last three years. And Hilton isn't making excuses.
"It was just the little things, not looking the ball in after the catch," Hilton said. "Basically, I was just trying to make plays and it kind of hurt me."
All of the above being true, Hilton's a fantastic receiver, and he has all the ability in the world to still get his catches even against this exceptional tandem.
For an X's and O's look at even more matchups, take a seat in Matt Bowen's film study.
Injury Report
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Dallas Cowboys
Tony Romo (QB)—Probable, Back
Rolando McClain (LB)—Questionable, Concussion
Green Bay Packers
Aaron Rodgers (QB)—Questionable, Calf
Indianapolis Colts
Greg Toler (CB)—Questionable, Knee
Hugh Thornton (OG)—Injured Reserve
Denver Broncos
Juwan Thompson (RB)—Probable, Knee
Demaryius Thomas (WR)—Probable, Ankle/Finger
T.J. Ward (S)—Probable, Neck
Brandon Marshall (LB)—Questionable, Foot
Bleacher Report Consensus Predictions and Links
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Michael Schottey is an NFL National Lead Writer for Bleacher Report and an award-winning member of the Pro Football Writers of America. Find more of his stuff on his archive page and follow him on Twitter.
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