Duke Basketball: What Devils Must Prove in Conference Play

Duke is off to a sizzling start in its 2014-15 hoops campaign. Sitting at 13-0 with all wins by double digits, Devils fans have all but forgotten last season’s debacle.

The team has already proved a lot this season. Its win at Wisconsin is still the best win any team has recorded all year. Quinn Cook is thriving in his new role on the court and as a leader. The most important development for Duke has been the early performance of it top-ranked freshmen class.

Tyus Jones has lived up to his reputation as a heady point guard who can score in bunches when the team needs it but otherwise sets up his teammates. Justise Winslow has performed well above the expectations for the No. 15 recruit in the country, which is especially pleasing for Duke fans considering he has outplayed two Carolina players (Justin Jackson and Theo Pinson) who were ranked ahead of him at his position.

Then there is Jahlil Okafor.

Okafor has somehow exceeded the expectations placed upon him as the No. 1 recruit in the country and a preseason All-American. He has arguably been the best player in the country so far, averaging 19.5 points on an absurd 68 percent shooting clip.

Every year when some of the top recruits struggle out of the gate we hear about how too much pressure is put on them before they ever play a game, but that expectation is set by the freshmen who have come in and truly dominated the game. After seeing Okafor and players like Anthony Davis and John Wall dominate their freshmen seasons, fans can’t help but expect similar impacts from their next big recruit.

Even with the freshmen playing so well and many of the veterans fitting perfectly into their roles, the Devils have looked quite beatable at times. They have overcome their weaknesses so far, but they may not be able to get away with lapses against teams like Louisville and Virginia. (Duke faces both teams on the road this year.) Here are the things Duke will have to prove it can do if it is to recapture the ACC.

Ability to Win with Defense

Rich Schultz/Getty Images

Duke has been dominant so far on offense but has looked weak defensively at times. It currently ranks first in Ken Pomeroy’s offensive efficiency ratings but only 15th in defense.

The offense this year is more sustainable than in years past, with Okafor able to get a basket at almost any time. He has shown a propensity to get into foul trouble, but Tyus Jones has taken over any time his best friend has to hit the bench. Duke could, however, face a tough night on offense if teams start to follow the blueprint provided by Connecticut.

The Huskies double-teamed Okafor and crowded the lane every time he touched the ball. Okafor is a great passer out of the post, but UConn hung with the Devils due to Ryan Boatright’s great defensive play and a cold shooting night from Duke.

Most importantly, Huskies defenders flopped every time Okafor tried to back them down. Okafor can easily gain post position against any defender, but UConn was able to take advantage of college referees’ infatuation with offensive fouls. If defenders fall down dramatically any time Okafor backs into them, they are sure to get at least two offensive fouls on him and frustrate him.

Duke is shooting 52 percent as a team this year, but it made only 37.5 percent of its shots against the Huskies. Duke was able to win because Boatright is still UConn’s only reliable scorer, but it may not be so lucky in conference games.

If Duke shoots that poorly at Louisville or Virginia, it’s quite possible it could get blown out. Duke is sure to have an off night sometime in conference play, and the Devils will need to buckle down and lock up in order to win the game. Duke lacks elite rim protection, and the starting backcourt of Tyus Jones and Cook has given up a decent amount of penetration.

Fortunately for Devils, they have an elite wing defender in Winslow as well as two solid defenders coming off the bench in Rasheed Sulaimon and Matt Jones. The team will need its two best players off the bench to produce all year long in order to continue winning.

Consistent Production off the Bench

Grant Halverson/Getty Images

Matt Jones and Sulaimon are coming off great performances against Boston College. They shut down Olivier Hanlan after a hot start and combined for 19 points. The game was hotly contested until Sulaimon nailed a three, assisted a Cook triple, then knocked down another trey on consecutive possessions.

When those two play like that, Duke is almost unbeatable. However Duke looked its weakest against UConn, when the two combined for zero points and failed to impact the game defensively.

Sulaimon’s points are down again, but he is having a much better season than he did a year ago. Rather than struggling to understand his role, he seems to be relishing his status as an energetic defender and ball-handler off the bench.

Matt Jones is finally shooting as well as he did in high school but seems to lose confidence quickly. He may still be mentally recovering from last year’s season-long slump. Both players are capable scorers, but they need to continue to play with energy regardless of their offense, especially against an ACC schedule full of teams with great guards.

Grayson Allen has showed potential and may earn more minutes as his defense catches up to his offense. Marshall Plumlee will also need to continue to contribute. Plumlee will be needed if Okafor has foul trouble or if Duke plays a bigger team.

The Devils have plenty of guards to come in if someone is struggling, but Plumlee is the only frontcourt option on the bench and has the potential to help out big time on the boards, another facet of the game in which Duke needs to prove itself.

Cleaning Up on the Glass

Ellen Ozier/Associated Press

Duke has two players with impressive rebounding stats in Okafor and Amile Jefferson. Winslow rebounds well for his position, and Plumlee can certainly help. But Duke has still struggled at times on the boards. Both Okafor and Jefferson are better offensive than defensive rebounders, and Duke has struggled to keep opponents to one shot at times this year.

Virginia, Louisville and Carolina all have huge lineups that could hurt Duke if its players fail to box out. The Devils need to learn to rebound soundly as a team with all five players doing their parts.

Coach Mike Krzyzewski recently began toying with a lineup that includes both Plumlee and Okafor. Those two give Duke a frontcourt with legitimate NBA size and athleticism, but so far they’re a detriment to spacing when Duke has the ball. The two bigs need to share the court at times, and they will have to figure out how to fit together on offense in order to play together effectively.

Solid Free-Throw Shooting

Ellen Ozier/Associated Press

Duke has the requisite ball-handling and free-throw shooting to hold leads late in games. Tyus Jones, Cook, and Sulaimon are all capable ball-handlers who can knock down shots from the line late in games. Duke is more likely to have problems at the line if it is losing or tied late in a game and trying to pound the ball inside.

Okafor was an impressive 14-of-17 at the charity strip against Boston College but is only at 57 percent overall. Winslow (60 percent) and Jefferson (57 percent) have also struggled.

Winslow and Jefferson are both attacking players who do a lot of their damage at the rim. This leads to a lot of fouls drawn, and the two are leaving plenty of points at the line. Hopefully they will not become afraid of being fouled and will continue with their relentless style of play.

The biggest worry is Okafor. He is the team’s obvious No. 1 scoring option and will likely be getting touches late in close games. It’s almost guaranteed he’ll be fouled in those situations. If he continues to struggle, teams may start hacking him before he even has a chance to make a move in the post.

If he fails to build on his solid performance against Boston College, look for teams to start fouling Okafor more and more before he shoots, once they realize they can’t stop him straight up.

Handling Adversity

Gerry Broome/Associated Press

So far Duke has had a dream season. Chemistry seems to be off the charts, and everyone appears happy filling his own role. This is easy when you’re winning every game handily, but what happens when Duke has some close contests or loses a couple of games?

This year’s team seems to have a good mix of steady players (Tyus Jones and Winslow) and fiery competitors (Cook and Sulaimon). It has been the perfect mixture so far, but will they forget all that once the going gets tough? It is yet to be seen.

We will learn plenty about Duke’s mental toughness by the end of the month. Duke closes out January with a brutal stretch of five games in 14 days, four of which are on the road against currently ranked teams. Even if Duke loses a few of those contests, the outlook for the rest of the season will be sunny.