Buying or Selling the Hottest NBA Trade Rumors Entering 2015
The Twitter-clogging, wholly unexpected three-way swap that redistributed J.R. Smith, Iman Shumpert and Dion Waiters on Jan. 5 proved NBA trade season is already upon us.
That means it's time to pay more attention to the chatter, scrutinize sources and separate the plausible rumors from the pie-in-the-sky nonsense. The Smith-Shumpert-Waiters deal came out of nowhere, and even if we'd heard whispers about it ahead of time, we probably would have dismissed them as too ridiculous to believe.
Which goes to show how tricky it can be to sketch out parameters for what's possible in NBA trade talks.
If that deal—rife with seemingly unmovable personalities, damaged goods and demonstrated malcontents—could get done, well...it seems like anything could happen.
The official Feb. 19 deadline is still weeks away, and if the first big deal of the season is any indication, we're going to need every second of time between now and then to prepare. Let's buy and sell the assorted trade gossip flitting around the Association.
The Cavs Want Bigs
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It's tough to find any reaction to the Cavs' acquisition of Smith and Waiters that didn't mention the trade's key shortcoming: it's failure to address a glaring need for frontcourt help.
Anderson Varejao is done for the year, Kevin Love was done defending years ago and Tristan Thompson has done nothing to prove he's more than a backup. Those facts, along with the Cavaliers' desire to provide LeBron James with at least a fringe-contending supporting cast, are why we should expect Cleveland to pursue a big man.
Oh look: Rumors!
According to Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo Sports, the Cavs are trying to pry Timofey Mozgov away from the Denver Nuggets. Fox Sports Ohio's Sam Amico seconded the report, then included Memphis Grizzlies center Kosta Koufos as another target, calling Cleveland's big man search "aggressive."
The Cavs still have their $5.2 million traded player exception to offer after using up Varejao's disabled player exception in the Smith deal, so there's a good chance a cost-cutting team will come calling if the Mozgov and Koufos pursuits don't pan out.
Cleveland is going to do something to shore up its interior defense. It has to.
Verdict: Strong Buy
All Quiet on the Stephenson Front?
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On Dec. 19, ESPN.com's Chris Broussard and Ramona Shelburne reported the Charlotte Hornets had decided to keep Lance Stephenson around because they'd been "underwhelmed by the quality of trade offers" for the presently injured, previously unproductive guard.
Days later, on Dec. 21, ESPN's Marc Stein relayed the following via Twitter: "Weekend Trade Rumble: Heard various Pacers were asked if Indy should try to bring Lance Stephenson back. Response NOT one of encouragement."
Is any of this surprising?
Stephenson had a messy exit from the Indiana Pacers, complete with reports he'd undermined the team's chemistry. He subsequently played awful basketball for the Hornets, then went down with a pelvic injury on Dec. 17 and hasn't played since.
Given that brief, alarming history, no team in its right mind would surrender decent value for Stephenson.
But that'll change. Stephenson's value is at an all-time low, and it can't go anywhere but up from here. Whenever he makes his way back onto the court, he'll show flashes, the Hornets will recognize an opportunity and they'll re-engage in trade talks that might actually go somewhere.
Charlotte has played better without Stephenson, going 6-5 since his absence after starting 6-19 with him in the lineup. It'll be motivated to move him when the time's right.
Two-Part Verdict: Buy nobody wanting Stephenson now. Sell that being the case forever.
Jeff Green on the Move?
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The Boston Celtics already made the emotional move of shifting Rajon Rondo to the Dallas Mavericks for low-cost assets and draft picks. Parting with the last remaining piece of their championship team was the hard part, which should make dealing Jeff Green easier.
Green's certainly not the only piece Boston would like to move (hi, Gerald Wallace!), but he's probably the one most coveted by contenders. As the Celtics continue to strip down the roster, he's a logical candidate for bag-packing in 2015.
Per Sean Deveney of SportingNews.com, Celtics president of basketball operations Danny Ainge said:
"We have a lot of cap space this summer, which the Celtics have never had, and we have a trade exception, a big trade exception, and we have draft picks, and we have a lot of good, young players that are attractive to other teams. ... And as far as trades, we just have to be ready to have assets to trade, and stay opportunistic and make our decisions with those, with our assets.
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Deveney also reported the Celtics are actively looking for ways to move both Green and Brandon Bass, and that they've been doing so for a year. As contenders gradually get less comfortable with their flaws, you'd have to think Green will become more attractive.
In a piece for B/R, Michael Pina explained why: "He's a fine, defensively versatile basketball player who performs well in an ensemble and understands he can't be the alpha dog on a good team. It seems then to be in everybody's best interest for a trade to go down before the deadline passes. Offers will come."
Where those offers will come from is anybody's guess. The Los Angeles Clippers could use frontcourt help and defense on the wings, both of which the flexible Green could provide. The Portland Trail Blazers are suddenly thin up front again as well. The list of teams that could use Green's services will only get longer as the deadline approaches, which is when Boston will opportunistically strike.
Verdict: Buy...Eventually
Ray Allen, Andray Blatche Signings
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Ray Allen and Andray Blatche aren't trade candidates. They're something better: rotation-quality talent teams can simply acquire for cash.
Allen, per Brian Windhorst of ESPN, is "leaning towards retiring." We've seen veterans take their time before selecting a contender before, but it's beginning to feel like Allen's hiatus will become permanent.
Blatche is a different case. He's not toying with retirement; he's living the life in China these days, earning $2.5 million to play against inferior competition, get all the shots he wants and generally operate as "the man"—much like he did in his stint with the Philippines during the 2014 FIBA Basketball World Championships.
According to Wojnarowski, Blatche will be eligible to return to the NBA in March. Stein reports the Miami Heat have interest in bolstering their frontcourt rotation. You do the math.
Verdict: Sell Allen's return. Buy Blatche's.
Brook Lopez to the Thunder?
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This one's intriguing.
Per Ohm Youngmisuk of ESPN, the Brooklyn Nets and Oklahoma City Thunder recently discussed a potential deal involving Brook Lopez and Kendrick Perkins. Netsdaily reported "no firm offers" were made, but the Thunder's addition of Waiters indicates there's a willingness to deal here.
Lopez has played well lately, averaging 20.8 points and 8.3 rebounds per game over his last four contests. His injury history will always be a concern, but when healthy, BroLo has always been productive.
He'll make $15.7 million this year and has a player option for $16.7 million in 2015-16—good-sized figures, sure, but not cap crushers.
There's no doubt Lopez would give OKC a major boost over Perkins, and his presence would free up starter Steven Adams to play as aggressively as he pleased. Foul trouble, an issue for Adams, wouldn't matter nearly as much with Lopez in the fold. And it wouldn't be crazy to assume OKC might shake up its lineup, moving Adams to the bench in favor of the offensively superior Lopez.
This is a wild scenario, one that would require the Thunder to flirt with the luxury tax they've so zealously avoided while taking on a serious injury risk. Still, a team that trades for Dion Waiters is clearly a desperate one.
We'll begrudgingly sell the rumor for now because the Thunder might want a small trade reprieve before diving back into the market. But don't be surprised if this one picks up more steam as 2015 rolls on.
Verdict: Sell
