49ers Free Agency: Exploring Impact of San Francisco's Salary Cap

It's highly unlikely that the San Francisco 49ers will make any big splashes in free agency this offseason.

This is due to their current salary-cap situation. At the end of the 2014 NFL season, San Francisco boasted a payroll of $132,150,623, which was $3,333,160 below the adjusted cap of $135,483,783.

A number of player contracts will increase the 49ers' total salary in 2015.

Granted, the NFL salary cap is expected to increase as well next season. Per Jarrett Bell of USA Today, the cap is going to land somewhere between $138 million to $141 million.

This will help the 49ers to a certain extent, but much of that money will be used to offset the increase in contracts to various players on the roster.

Yet the 49ers will likely be forced to part ways with a number of high-cost free agents this offseason. San Francisco has done this in the past with high-profile free agents. Safeties Donte Whitner and Dashon Goldson come to mind.

There is the thought that San Francisco could use the franchise tag in an attempt to retain one of its pending free agents. Given the high costs of potential targets, though, this possibility seems unlikely.

San Francisco could also benefit, at least in terms of salary, from possible retirements. Veteran defensive end Justin Smith is one player who has hinted at doing such.

Let's break down the 49ers' cap situation and how it will affect their actions during free agency.

Projected 2015 Cap Situation

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Quarterback Colin Kaepernick will see a raise in his base salary in 2015 barring a restructure.

San Francisco has 61 players under contract for the 2015 season.

These players will account for $152,531,344 against the cap according to Over the Cap. Additionally, there is a total of $6,484,901 in dead money in this total.

Only the top 51 contracts count against the cap. This total is $147,926,194.

Jason Hurley of Niners Nation projects the 49ers as having $6,370,719 in estimated cap room from the 2014 season, which can be rolled over next year. Hurley predicts San Francisco being $2,195,902 under the cap in 2015.

This takes into account salary increases for players like quarterback Colin Kaepernick. Kaepernick will receive an increase to $10.4 million in his base salary. Other players will also receive increases.

The $2.196 million doesn't leave a lot of wiggle room for the 49ers to make a big signing. Deals will have to be done that fit within this number. Additionally, it is possible San Francisco renegotiates or cuts expensive players to create some space.

Exactly how the team goes about doing this will determine the eventual flexibility the 49ers will have in approaching free agency.

Players Unlikely to Be Re-Signed

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Wide receiver Michael Crabtree has probably played his last game in a 49ers uniform.

Nineteen players are scheduled to be free agents in 2015. Many of these are depth players or short-term additions to make up for the vast amount of injuries suffered by the team over the course of the season.

But a few are quite notable.

Running back Frank Gore, wide receiver Michael Crabtree, left guard Mike Iupati and cornerback Chris Culliver are among the most noteworthy free agents that will hit the market this offseason.

Gore will be a tough decision to make. 

The 31-year-old veteran crested 1,000 yards rushing for the eighth time in his career. He also accounted for $6.45 million against the cap in 2014.

San Francisco's general manager Trent Baalke hinted via CSN Bay Area (h/t Cam Inman of the San Jose Mercury News) that the team would like Gore back next season. Gore has also expressed similar sentiments.

"

Frank Gore's return to the 49ers not being ruled out by GM Baalke http://t.co/zSzLBQkWl7 @CamInman pic.twitter.com/kKBH00auVc

— Mercury News (@mercnews) December 24, 2014"

Sentiments are nice, but the business of football may dictate otherwise. Gore will probably have to accept a vastly reduced salary in order to fit him into the 49ers' plans in 2015. Additionally, the franchise will eventually want to push No. 2 back Carlos Hyde into a regular role.

Culliver is another interesting situation. The 26-year-old defensive back finished with a strong season that helped propel San Francisco's pass defense to No. 5 in the NFL with just 3,531 yards allowed.

"

After a shaky first three games, Chris Culliver's +10.7 coverage grade over the final 13 games was fifth best among cornerbacks. #49ers

— Jeff Deeney (@PFF_Jeff) December 31, 2014"

Culliver accounted for $1.581 million against the cap in 2014. He'll likely receive a nice raise during the offseason, which could price him out of the 49ers' abilities to re-sign him.

But this isn't as bad given the depth San Francisco has at the position. Young corners like Jimmie Ward, Dontae Johnson, Keith Reaser and Kenneth Acker will look for more prominent roles. No. 1 cornerback Tramaine Brock—who missed most of 2014 with injuries—should also return.

Iupati and Crabtree are the least likely of the free agents to return in 2015.

Crabtree endured a lackluster year and is no longer the 49ers' No. 1 receiving target. In fact, the wideout has posted just one 1,000-plus yard season over his six-year career.

Replacing him will likely be a duty of Baalke during the draft. It's possible that a low-cost free agent can fill the void. 

According to Chris Wesseling of NFL.com, Iupati could wind up being the highest-paid guard after a lofty contract is given to him this offseason. Iupati has two Pro Bowl nominations under his belt and was named a first-team All-Pro in 2012.

San Francisco will hope to get lofty production from up-and-coming backups like O-linemen Marcus Martin and Brandon Thomas in 2015.

Cap Casualties

TONY AVELAR/Associated Press

Tight end Vernon Davis' lackluster 2014 campaign and hefty salary in 2015 could make him a cap casualty.

San Francisco's cap situation doesn't give the franchise a lot of flexibility to put up with lofty, expensive contracts from players who are not producing at a level that would warrant the expense.

Three players are among those who could wind up being cap casualties after 2014: linebacker Ahmad Brooks, safety Craig Dahl and tight end Vernon Davis.

Davis endured the worst season, statistically, since his 2006 rookie year. The 30-year-old tight end hauled in just 26 receptions for 245 yards and two touchdowns. He no longer seems to possess the matchup-nightmare potential that once made him among the league's elite at the position.

San Francisco's No. 1 tight end is scheduled to make $4.35 million in base salary next season. His total cap hit would be $7,017,918 when including dead money.

Jason Hurley of Niners Nation suggests the 49ers will save $4.9 million in cap space if they cut him prior to next season. 

Davis is scheduled to be a free agent in 2016.

The problem is that the 49ers don't have a legitimate option to replace Davis. No. 2 tight end Vance McDonald has not emerged as a legitimate pass-catching threat, and the prospect pool in the NFL draft isn't that deep either.

Easier decisions involve Dahl and Brooks.

The backup safety has been a liability in coverage over his two-year tenure in San Francisco. Serviceable as a special teams player, Dahl is scheduled to count for $1,283,333 against the cap in 2015. The 49ers would save $1.7 million if Dahl was released.

Brooks' future is even more predictable. The 30-year-old linebacker saw a decrease in playing time following the emergence of rookie linebacker Aaron Lynch. Despite being tied for the team lead in sacks (six), moving Brooks during the offseason seems to make plenty of sense.

"

And I guess the looming cap casualty would probably be Ahmad Brooks. Lynch was stellar. I wish Lemonier would have done more, though.

— Aaron Malone (@GafflezMalone) December 30, 2014"

Releasing Brooks prior to June 1 would save $4,102,500, per Hurley.

And it isn't as if the 49ers don't have an option waiting for Brooks' stead. 

Candidates for Restructured Contracts

Ezra Shaw/Getty Images

Restructuring Kaepernick's salary would save room, but it would negate the flexibility worked into the deal.

Restructured deals could give the 49ers a little more wiggle room under the cap in 2015.

Chief among these possibilities is the $126 million deal for quarterback Colin Kaepernick.

The contract—which leaves the franchise the option to part ways with the quarterback—is scheduled to give Kaepernick $10.4 million in base salary next season. The total cap hit could be $15,265,753.

A restructuring of this deal, by giving him a low base salary and a high prorated signing bonus, could save the 49ers maximum savings of $7.724 million, according to Jason Hurley of Niners Nation. Yet such a transition would negate the flexibility worked into the contract.

This is important when considering the uncertainty of the franchise and whoever takes over as head coach in 2015.

According to Mike Florio of NBC Sports' Pro Football Talk, the new head coach might not see the same aspects of the team's quarterback in the same light that former head coach Jim Harbaugh saw. It's feasible that the new regime would want to move in a new direction, which would make the current contract much more appealing.

As such, 2015 may be the make-or-break year for Kaepernick.

"

After parting ways with Jim Harbaugh, 49ers could have a problem with Colin Kaepernick http://t.co/0XH97jXlqA

— ProFootballTalk (@ProFootballTalk) January 1, 2015"

Now the team isn't going to part ways with veteran linebacker Patrick Willis—another player who could be up for a restructured deal.

Willis will count for $8.268 million against the cap in 2014. The 29-year-old veteran is signed through 2016, so an extension could wind up saving San Francisco considerable cash this upcoming season. Hurley projects such as being around the $5 million mark if negotiated correctly.

Fellow linebacker Aldon Smith is another player who could be up for a restructured deal. The 49ers picked up Smith's fifth-year option for 2015, which would become guaranteed at the start of the season.

A long-term extension would provide similar benefits as Willis. But how much concern would San Francisco have with Smith's off-the-field reputation?

Free-Agent Targets

Tony Avelar/Associated Press

Running back Frank Gore is one in-house free agent the 49ers might elect to pursue.

As stated previously, the 49ers are not likely to land any high-profile free agents during the offseason. Their cap situation all but determines this to be impossible.

San Francisco may attempt to retain one or more of its own free agents through a team-friendly deal. Running back Frank Gore is one such player who could see his way back to the 49ers.

"

Frank Gore: "I want to be back here." http://t.co/HojW1Olxt9 pic.twitter.com/yQpvsttmxR

— San Francisco 49ers (@49ers) December 29, 2014"

But some of the other noteworthy free-agents-to-be prompt plenty of question marks.

The pending losses of offensive guard Mike Iupati and wideout Michael Crabtree could be solved by depth players already on the roster. Yet will these new starters produce at the desired level expected by whomever the 49ers employ on their coaching staff?

There is the thought that San Francisco could pursue a bona fide, low-cost free agent this offseason.

In filling the void at wide receiver, one target that comes to mind is St. Louis Rams wideout Kenny Britt.

The 26-year-old veteran hasn't exactly enjoyed the consistency from his quarterback in recent years. As such, his numbers don't jump off the charts in comparison to other notable free agents. Still, Britt posted 48 receptions for 748 yards and three touchdowns for the Rams in 2014 despite a plethora of backup quarterbacks.

On top of that, Britt possesses one skill that San Francisco's offense desperately needs: speed.

Britt made $1 million in base salary in 2014. His contract likely won't be much higher next year, so this makes the six-year veteran a worthy low-cost option on the market.

There are other possible targets San Francisco might explore during the offseason. But all of these must have one thing in common. They'll have to fit within the 49ers' financial constraints.

These constraints are yet to be determined. An increased salary cap will provide some benefit. Possible retirements, restructures and releases will change what San Francisco can do on the market to a certain extent.

Still, the 49ers are treading tenuously towards the cap. Smart decisions loom for this franchise as it looks to put the best team possible out on the field in 2015.

All statistics, records and accolades courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com unless otherwise indicated. Contractual information courtesy of Spotrac.com unless noted otherwise.

Peter Panacy is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the San Francisco 49ers. Be sure to check out his entire archive on 49ers news, insight and analysis.

Follow him @PeterPanacy on Twitter.