Bengals vs. Colts: Final Odds, TV Schedule, Predictions for 2015 AFC Wild Card

The Indianapolis Colts and Cincinnati Bengals honor the weekend's wild-card theme.

At their best, both AFC squads have flashed glimpses of brilliance, displaying just enough upside so that nobody can rule out the scenario of either hoisting the Lombardi Trophy. They also, however, are riffled with imperfections that place them on the bottom tier of the postseason pecking order.

The stage isn't new to either side, as the Colts secured their third straight AFC South crown while the Bengals will make their fourth consecutive playoff bid. Yet the Colts haven't made it to the AFC Championship Game in the post-Peyton Manning era, and the Bengals are still searching for their first postseason victory in 24 years.

Don't sleep on Sunday afternoon's opening bout.

No. 5 Cincinnati Bengals at No. 4 Indianapolis Colts

When: Sunday, Jan. 4 at 1:05 p.m. ET

Where: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN

TV: CBS

Game Line (via Odds Shark): IND -3.5

Preview

Andy Lyons/Getty Images

If history repeats itself, Cincinnati is in for a long day. When these two sides met in Week 7, Indianapolis dominated a painfully one-sided affair.

During their 27-0 triumph, the Colts gained 506 total yards to the Bengals' 135. Andy Dalton averaged a putrid 3.3 yards per passing attempt, and his offense converted just one third down in 13 opportunities.

That sullen outing came without the services of star wide receiver A.J. Green, who led the team in receptions (69), receiving yards (1,041) and receiving touchdowns (six) despite missing three games and exiting two others injured before recording a catch.

Bad news, per the team's official Twitter page: The Bengals will have to play without him again.

The first thought upon reading that is, "Well, see you next season, Cincinnati." Andy Dalton, who has never played his best on Wild Card Weekend, has no chance without his go-to target, right?

Well, the fact that he bombed without him against Indianapolis confirms that statement. Then again, he wasn't terrible through the entire five-game sample size. Without Green, he completed 66.2 percent of his passes—compared to his 61.6 percent all season—with seven touchdowns and six interceptions.

As noted by NFL.com's Chris Wesseling, Dalton tended to force the issue to his stud during Cincinnati's trio of playoff losses.

Tight end Jermaine Gresham—who ranks second with 62 receptions and five touchdowns—also might not go. Considered a game-time decision, he returned to practice on Friday, according to ESPN.com's Coley Harvey. 

Green and Gresham combine for 42.3 percent of the team's receiving yards, and Mohamed Sanu has caught one pass in each of the last three games. Offensively, the Bengals will have to run it down the Colts' throat to advance. That's feasible, as Jeremy Hill enters Sunday on a tear.

Usurping Giovani Bernard on top of the depth chart, the 22-year-old delivered three straight 100-yard outings to close out the season, getting over 20 handoffs in each contest. Not a focal part of the offense earlier in the year, he was presented just four touches when last encountering Indy.

He'll need a monster day against the Colts' No. 18 rushing defense, but the bigger question is whether the Bengals can stop Andrew Luck.

Grantland's Bill Barnwell offers a compelling case against it.

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I’m skeptical that the Bengals are the defense to stand up to Luck in a playoff game, because they just don’t get enough pass pressure to really bother Indy’s star quarterback, and that’s been the best way to slow down the Colts this year. When opposing teams have gotten pressure on Indianapolis quarterbacks, they’ve posted a 3.0 QBR, the 12th-worst rate in the league. (Since the bye, their QBR under pressure is 0.6, tied for the worst with Denver and Washington.) Everybody gets better with no pressure, but Indy gets way better; their combination of Luck and a mini-football-helmet dollop of Matt Hasselbeck produced an 87.1 QBR without pressure, the 10th-best figure in the league.

Cincinnati simply doesn’t get after the quarterback. Its 20.2 percent pressure rate is the lowest in football. It has a very talented no. 1 rusher in Carlos Dunlap, whose 28 quarterback hits were tied for the second-most behind J.J. Watt, but nobody else on the team had more than 12 hits.

"

Luck underwent a roller-coaster postseason appearance last year, surrendering six picks but compiling 774 passing yards and seven touchdowns through two games. Down 38-10 the Kansas City Chiefs, he spawned a fierce rally to send the Colts to the second round.

Since winning the division is a typical custom, he told Colts.com's Kevin Bowen that simply making the dance doesn't satisfy his appetite.

“I don’t think just getting to the playoffs has ever been good enough in this building,” Luck said. “You understand, you don't take it for granted but you've got to do something with (the playoff appearance). You've got to do something with it.”

Against a Cincinnati defense that yields 4.2 yards per carry, it would certainly help if the Colts had anything resembling a run game. Yet just like last year, Luck is going to have to do all the heavy lifting through the air. 

Don't expect a replica of last year's 45-44 thriller, but Indianapolis will produce enough points to circumvent a hobbled Cincinnati offense.

Prediction: Colts 27, Bengals 20