NFL Rumors: Analyzing Buzz on Johnny Manziel, Larry Fitzgerald Trade and More

Though the NFL playoffs are just about to commence, the offseason has already started for 20 other franchises.  So while the fan attention may be focused on the 12 remaining teams, the majority of the league activity is focused on internal evaluations, free agency and draft prep.

Less than a week after the regular season's conclusion, most of these rumors surround teams trying to figure out where it all went wrong.  However, contract management is year-round, which has led to some discord surrounding a star wide receiver on a current playoff team.

Taking a look at the latest offseason buzz, let's determine what may happen with three of the game's biggest names this winter and spring.

Competition for Manziel?

Johnny Manziel received more attention than any other rookie this season, yet he provided little payoff in the way of on-field results.  However, he did fulfill the hype surrounding his hard-partying lifestyle, and according to Bleacher Report's Mike Freeman, that has led the Cleveland Browns to "almost certainly…look for another quarterback" to compete with Manziel next year:

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The Browns are leaning heavily this way. What I can say with great certainty is the coaching staff doesn't trust Johnny Manziel. Not saying they never will, but it's to the point that coaches there don't want to put their careers and livelihood into Manziel's hands. Can't say that I blame them.

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Manziel continues to say the right things to the media, openly noting the need to take his job more seriously.  However, Freeman himself has noted that Manziel's charismatic personality has fooled teams before, as his track record suggests that he will continue to break these well-woven convictions and promises:

Let's put the issue of Manziel's maturity and dedication aside for a moment.  It goes without saying that an NFL starter must take his job seriously, as no other position in American sports requires a more difficult blend of physical skills, mental acuity and leadership.  Hard work is simply a prima facie requirement for Manziel's career success.

Statistically speaking, Manziel's early track record is off to an ominous start.  Protestors will immediately state that seven quarters as a starter and 35 pass attempts is too little to make any sort of evaluation.  That statement rings true, but in terms of recent quarterbacks with similar rookie seasons, the comps aren't exactly promising (check out the full list via Pro-Football-Reference):

Player (Season)	Starts	TD-INT	Cmp %	QB Rating
Johnny Manziel (2014)	2	0-2	51.4	42.0
Brian Brohm (2009)	1	0-2	58.6	43.2
Brock Berlin (2007)	1	0-1	60.7	60.6
Matt Mauck (2005)	1	0-1	55.6	53.9
Drew Henson (2004)	1	1-1	55.6	61.8

It's a largely forgettable list even if you expand the selection beyond the 21st century.  While the odd Hall of Famer like Joe Montana or George Blanda comes into play, it's mostly littered with anonymous backups like Tony Graziani and Todd Collins.

Manziel may be on that same pathway if he never refines his footwork or ability to diagnose coverages and read through progressions.  There are large fundamental holes in his game, and for now, Cleveland is right to bring in competition for its disappointing rookie.

Fitzgerald to Force Trade?

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Larry Fitzgerald will likely go down as the greatest player in Arizona Cardinals history if he retires tomorrow.  Of course, despite recent declining production, the 31-year-old Fitzgerald has no intentions of doing so.  With an untenable $23.6 million cap hit due in 2015, the fourth highest at any position (per Spotrac.com), Fox Sports' Craig Morgan reports that Fitzgerald's time in the desert could come to an end:

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Beyond that, Fitzgerald, 31, is not happy with his role on the team, the source said. He doesn't like playing in the slot and he's become far less of a focal point of the offense. While Fitzgerald led the team this season with 63 receptions and was second to Michael Floyd in yardage at 784, those numbers are the lowest since his rookie year, and his two touchdowns are a career low.

By refusing a big pay cut, he could force the Cardinals to trade him to a team where he'd have the opportunity to be the top receiving option again.

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Morgan notes that Fitzgerald is unwilling to renegotiate his deal to either take a pay cut or convert some base salary to signing-bonus money, which could be spread over the life of his contract to reduce his 2015 cap hit.  

That refusal, if it remains, will hamstring Cardinals general manager Steve Keim, who has already expressed a willingness to keep Fitzgerald despite his unwieldy cap number.  At the same time, though, Keim understands the reality of the old cliche that the NFL is "just a business:"

In truth, Fitzgerald is probably better served on a team where he can be the second or third option playing as the flanker position.  Based on Football Outsiders' DVOA, a per-play measure of success rate, Fitzgerald finished just 54th among all wide receivers.  A team in need of a perimeter threat, like the Kansas City Chiefs or Carolina Panthers, might have better use for Fitzgerald's talents.

 

Cut or Trade for Gordon?

Jeff Haynes/Associated Press

Josh Gordon may be among the league's most talented players, and his 2013 campaign will go down as one of the most memorable in recent history.  Nevertheless, given his repeated pattern of off-field indiscretions, Browns GM Ray Farmer could very well release or trade the mercurial receiver this offseason, per The Plain Dealer's Mary Kay Cabot:

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The Browns have grown tired of Gordon's indiscretions and are contemplating cutting him. His latest misstep was oversleeping for the Saturday morning walk-through, which resulted in the one-game suspension for the season finale. It followed a series of tardies for which he was fined. …

If the Browns try to trade Gordon when the new league year opens in March, the extra year of rights would be beneficial. His $1.33 million average salary makes him a tradeable commodity. Most top receivers make $11 million to $16 million.

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Because his season-ending suspension cost him an accrued season (minimum six games), Gordon's free agency will be deferred a year to 2016.  That would make him among the league's most valuable commodities if he were to hit the trade market.  

Gordon accrued 1,646 yards last year, and the list of wide receivers with 1,600-yard seasons is littered with current or future Hall of Famers like Jerry Rice, Torry Holt, Marvin Harrison and Randy Moss.  Then again, Gordon has already broken one historical precedent:

Much like his teammate Manziel, Gordon said all the right things in a late-season interview, only to break his promise with a silly mistake soon thereafter.  The light bulb may flicker on at some point for one or both of them, but in the midst of trying to expunge a losing culture, the Browns may not have time to wait.