
NFL Playoffs 2014-15: Scenarios That Would Shake Up Postseason Picture
The Wild Card Round for the NFL playoffs gets underway on Saturday, as the Super Bowl favorites enjoy an extra week to rest, watch their prospective opponents and gear up for a deep run.
But could one of the eight teams needing to play in the opening round wind up with the Lombardi Trophy? There are certainly some dangerous contenders in the AFC and NFC who weren't fortunate enough to lock up byes to start the postseason.
As formidable as the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots look as the top seeds with home games throughout the postseason, there are several upstarts capable of topping them.
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Below is a look at the playoff picture as it stands, followed by a breakdown of intriguing underdog scenarios.
Scenarios to Shake Up Playoff Picture
America's Team Holds Court at Home
The 12-4 Dallas Cowboys will cap off Wild Card Weekend by playing host to the 11-5 Detroit Lions. Although the home team will be heavily favored—Odds Shark indicates it opened as a seven-point favorite—Dallas has actually struggled more in front of its fans this year, posting a 4-4 record.
But ESPN Dallas' Landry Locker alludes to a discouraging statistic for Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford:
Detroit's receiving duo of Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate ought to pose a serious challenge to the Cowboys' secondary. However, Stafford will be tasked with carrying a mostly one-dimensional offense, all the while attempting to exorcise his demons away from Ford Field.
Tony Romo is playing as well as any quarterback in the league, has the best offensive line he's ever had and benefits from having NFL rushing champion DeMarco Murray in the backfield.
According to SportsCenter's Twitter account, the Lions appear to be without one of their biggest impediments to Murray's momentum as well:
NFL.com's Chris Trapasso observes just how much of a push Murray has gotten before defenders even get the chance to try and tackle him:
Although Romo has fallen short in critical situations in the past, he has guided the Cowboys to four straight wins in December and has them rolling into the playoffs.
In Football Outsiders' Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), Romo is second among starting QBs only to Green Bay superstar Aaron Rodgers.
That means Romo makes the most out of his opportunities when he airs the ball out. As long as his stout men in the trenches can block and Dallas can carve out a running game, Romo has the personnel in Dez Bryant, Jason Witten and others to exploit a vulnerable Detroit secondary that features extremely thin depth at cornerback.
Should Dallas emerge victorious, it would encounter the ultimate test to its perfect 8-0 road mark by traveling to Lambeau Field to take on Rodgers and Co., followed by a likely date with Seattle.
Based on how balanced the Cowboys are on offense, how superior Romo has been in big moments as of late and how great the team has been on the road, America's Team could well find itself playing in the Super Bowl.
Andrew Luck Gets Protected, Protects the Football

Is the notion that Andrew Luck doesn't have an offensive line a myth? Football Outsiders rates the Colts as the 10th-best unit in pass protection.
Perhaps that's due to a quicker passing game that sees Luck get the ball out faster at times, masking lackluster blocking.
Whatever the case may be, Luck turns the ball over too much for a supposedly elite signal-caller. The Colts' success since Luck was chosen No. 1 overall in the 2012 draft is largely traced to his exceptional job succeeding Peyton Manning.
At some point, the errors have to stop. Luck led the NFL with 40 touchdown passes, yet only five players threw more interceptions than Luck's 16—and he also lost six fumbles.
The bad habit of giveaways has carried over to the postseason in Luck's career to date, too, per ESPN Stats & Info:
There is no denying Luck is explosive as a passer and a runner. He has weapons such as T.Y. Hilton, Reggie Wayne and Coby Fleener who can torch opponents at any time.
Pro Football Focus' Steve Palazzolo observed another issue that has contributed to Luck's carelessness with the ball:
Expectations are always going to be impossible for Luck to match until he does, realizing his destiny as the game's very best.
This has by far been Luck's best overall regular season. His third year has been a huge step forward. It's on Luck to prove he can cut down the blunders and keep his team in position to win while still making the big plays Colts fans have gladly grown accustomed to.
And let's bring it all the way back around: The 11-5 Colts are home against the 10-5-1 Cincinnati Bengals, who are a bit long in the tooth in the defensive backfield and had a league-low 20 sacks in the regular season.
They also have a QB in Andy Dalton who owns an 0-3 playoff record and has played abysmally in all his outings.
Let's just leave this Dalton stat from Rotoworld's Cian Fahey here—something that bodes well even in the event Luck makes a mistake:
"In a very conservative offense behind a really good OL, Andy Dalton threw an INT every 28 attempts this year. He has 66 over four seasons.
— Cian Fahey (@Cianaf) December 29, 2014"
Based on how much Indianapolis' players has rallied around each other in coach Chuck Pagano's tenure, there's no telling just how good the Colts can be.
If Luck can help gather a head of steam by lighting up the scoreboard at Lucas Oil Stadium on Sunday and make ball security his No. 1 priority going forward, this Colts club could make some serious noise.
Panthers Travel to Seattle

As mentioned in the Cowboys' section, the Seahawks loom large with their top-seeded status and home-field advantage. There could be one team that stands in their way, though, and it's a surprising one.
The suddenly-mighty, 7-8-1 Carolina Panthers dismantled Atlanta 34-3 in Week 17 to take the NFC South crown, becoming the division's first ever repeat champion.
Now the Panthers have a real chance to play in Seattle with the Ryan Lindley-led Arizona Cardinals coming to Charlotte on Saturday. Head coach Ron Rivera summarized his team's mindset over the past month, via WCCB Charlotte's Kelli Bartik:
Cam Newton is looking as healthy as he has all year, while Panthers running back Jonathan Stewart is finally fit enough to take on a feature role.
Carolina offensive coordinator Mike Shula lauded Stewart's abilities when he is full-go, via Panthers.com's Max Henson:
Stewart and Newton give the Panthers the rushing attack necessary to go on the road and win at CenturyLink Field. Their defense, headlined by stud linebacker Luke Kuechly, has also rounded back into form reminiscent of the 2013 unit that was among the NFL's elite.
Since Russell Wilson arrived in Seattle, he has posted a 3-0 record against the Panthers, but none of the games have been pretty.
Only in this year's game did Stewart see significant action, and neither Seattle nor Carolina were playing near the quality of football both are now. The 12-4 Seahawks have won six straight, but the Panthers have four consecutive victories of their own.
This Carolina bunch has a nasty, physical edge to it, similar to the chip-on-the-shoulder mentality Seattle has ridden to success over the past three seasons.
Giving the defending Super Bowl champions a taste of their own medicine may be enough for the Panthers to take the next step in a year when such a development seemed almost inconceivable.

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