Transfer Window Dominoes: What Mats Hummels to Manchester United Would Lead To
Manchester United have long been linked with Mats Hummels, as reported by Samuel Luckhurst in the Manchester Evening News this week.
But what would happen if the Borussia Dortmund man actually arrived at Old Trafford?
As with all high-profile transfers, his move would have the potential to set off a chain of events across the football world.
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What follows is theoretical speculation, so do feel free to add your own ideas in the comments below, addressing how you think the merry-go-round would spin if the German swapped under-performing Dortmund for Manchester.
Impact at United
If Louis van Gaal did sign Hummels, what would it mean for United's existing defenders? This season, Van Gaal has used Jonny Evans, Phil Jones, Marcos Rojo, Chris Smalling, Michael Carrick, Tyler Blackett and Paddy McNair at centre-half.
McNair and Blackett can be considered in a separate category, due to their age. Both have done well when called upon, particularly McNair who was superb against Newcastle United on Friday.
Given their relatively significant impact at a young age, it seems logical they will be retained by Van Gaal, although a loan move would not be impossible if there were too many senior defenders at the club to offer the youngsters playing time.
Carrick is, of course, not actually a defender and should not be affected by Hummels' arrival, other than to make it less likely that he will have to cover in defence.
Assuming Blackett and McNair continue to progress, then the arrival of another senior centre-back at United could well see one of Evans, Smalling, Jones or Rojo move on. Having eight players competing for the available positions, even if Van Gaal continues to use a back three, would seem to be overkill.
Of course, United's defensive injury record this season has been such that no amount of spare central defenders currently seems excessive, but a line has to be drawn somewhere.
Choosing which player to move on is no mean feat. Rojo's recent arrival, and his ability to fill in at left-back, could strengthen his position. Jones, Smalling and Evans share a poor record for availability. In November, Luckhurst wrote in the Manchester Evening News that the three players had been available for just 25 percent of United's matchday squads since 2011.
All three have suffered absences through injuries this season, and in spite of the fact that they are all fine players, it may be that Van Gaal looks to bring in further reinforcements and United lose more than one of the triumvirate.
None of the three are perfect, all have made mistakes this season—Smalling's red card against Manchester City, Evans' tendency to misplace passes and Jones unnecessarily conceding a penalty against Newcastle, for example.
They have, of course, also all been injured.
At their best, all three are excellent players. There would presumably be no shortage of sides prepared to take a gamble on the fitness of whichever is deemed surplus to requirements.
Leading Premier League sides needing defensive additions may be interested, including, for example, Arsenal, whose defensive woes have exceeded even United's.
With Per Mertersacker's mixed form, perhaps Arsenal would be prepared to allow the German to complete a transfer triangle, replacing Hummels at Dortmund.
It is also worth noting that Michael Keane is currently on loan at Burnley, who could look to extend the loan or even seek to make the move permanent should one less place exist for a centre-back in United's squad.
Dortmund and Beyond
Back in July, Alan Nixon wrote in the Mirror that Dortmund were attempting to sign Liverpool's Tiago Ilori on loan for the season in order to replace Hummels. That did not come to pass, and Ilori instead ended up in Ligue 1, on loan at Bordeaux.
Assuming Hummels arrived in the summer, Jurgen Klopp (if he is still in post) would probably have to look elsewhere. Another year older, with more high-level experience under his belt, there may well be a place for Ilori in Liverpool's much-maligned defensive unit.
One possibility could be for Dortmund to look to reunite the Greek national team's centre-back pairing. With Sokratis Papastathopoulos already at the club, Klopp could do worse than to bring in Roma's Kostas Manolas. The two were excellent together in Greece's run to the knockout stages of the World Cup.
Manolas made a good start to his Roma career, per Mark Doyle of Goal.com, who also described his acquisition as a "coup" for the Italian side, given Arsenal's interest in the player.
Given his recent arrival in Rome, he would presumably be an expensive option, but he is a very promising young player with a good deal of top-level experience.
Manolas arrived as Mehdi Benatia left Roma for Bayern Munich, and Roma would need to replace Manolas if he left. Last week Simon Burnton of the Guardian reported a rumour that Roma were tracking Ryan Shawcross for a potential move.
Shawcross leaving Stoke for Roma could free up a spot for one of United's young defenders to spend a season there on loan if there is too much competition for places at Old Trafford.
Another possibility for Dortmund could be to attempt to gazump Juventus and Arsenal for the services of Fabian Schar. Schar has been linked to both clubs, per Paul Chronnell of the Guardian in November.
Should Schar head to Dortmund, Arsenal would miss out, becoming an even more logical destination for any defenders United sought to move on.
Of course, strengthening a rival is a questionable tactic. Any of Smalling, Jones or Evans would improve Arsenal's first XI, but their regular lack of availability through injury is a mitigating factor in terms of how much damage such a move would do to United.
Chronnell also reported an interest from Arsenal in Ron Vlaar of Aston Villa and Aymeric Laporte of Athletic Bilbao but suggested that United had moved ahead of the Gunners in the race to sign those players.
Should a deal be done for Hummels, it is hard to see both of those two signed by United, meaning they could have an impact elsewhere in the transfer market or indeed be retained by their current clubs.
This could be particularly crucial in the case of Aston Villa who currently sit five points above the relegation zone and need a reasonable second half of the season to ensure they retain the Premier League status.
Another player who could be affected by Hummels arriving at United is Diego Godin. The Atletico Madrid defender is a target for Van Gaal, per Joe Strange for Mail Online.
United spending their energies (and money) elsewhere would be good news for Diego Simeone's side. Simeone "laughed off" speculation regarding Godin earlier this month, per Alex Richards of the Mirror.
Athletico are currently four points behind Real Madrid—who also have a game in hand. Keeping their best players is important, if they are to have any chance of overhauling that deficit to retain their title.
Ahead of the transfer window, there is always the potential for the football landscape to undergo significant changes. If Hummels moves to United, the ripples will surely be felt around the world. How that will happen is inherently uncertain.
What is certain is that both the moves that will follow and the moves that will not happen if the German makes Old Trafford his new home will have a significant bearing on individual players and potentially even relegation and title battles in multiple leagues.
What is also near certain is that United would be improved by the move.
Perhaps the biggest domino effect of all would be to improve United's chances of reclaiming the Premier League title, sooner rather than later.
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