The NBA's Most Surprising and Disappointing Young Players During 2014
As we draw curtains on the 2014 portion of the 2014-15 NBA season, it's time to spotlight the most surprising and disappointing young ballers around the league.
Among the under-25 crowd, a handful of unexpected standouts have emerged to give their teams a boost. Some are rookies bursting onto the Association, and others are third- or fourth-year role players enjoying unforeseen stardom.
To be fair, the majority of the 2014 rookie class has been discouraging. But our group of disappointing youngsters in this article consisted mostly of returning players—those who had established expectations and failed to reach anticipated benchmarks.
In other words, we're more disappointed in a second- or third-year player regressing than a rookie struggling to meet pre-career projections.
Which young pros exceeded or fell short of our prognostications in 2014?
Surprising: Tobias Harris, Orlando Magic F
1 of 10
Age/Experience: 22 years old/fourth season
2014-15 Stats: 35.5 MPG, 18.6 PPG, 7.1 RPG, 2.1 APG, 47% FG, 39% 3FG
Considering his incremental improvement from 2012-13 to 2013-14, Tobias Harris' robust 2014-15 campaign isn't flabbergasting.
But it's hard not to be impressed by his 18-plus points per game and increased per-minute production despite a heavier workload. Harris' three-point shooting success is particularly striking; on catch-and-shoot treys, he's feasting at a 43 percent rate.
Bleacher Report's Stephen Babb noted that the combo forward is a key catalyst for the Orlando Magic's gradual rise to respectability. He's not just piling up numbers for a bottom-feeder:
"Coupled with the fact that Orlando's 9-15 start to the season has itself been something of a surprise, Harris' super-efficient contributions are especially praise-worthy. This isn't just a decent player exaggerating his production on a bad team. The up-and-coming Magic are beginning to turn heads ever so slightly, and Harris has been one of the primary reasons.
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Harris went from a promising young role player in 2013-14 to a dependable, substantially productive cog this year. He possesses more confidence and polish in his fourth campaign, and the numbers are vivid evidence.
Disappointing: Trey Burke, Utah Jazz PG
2 of 10
Age/Experience: 22 years old/second season
2014-15 Stats: 31.8 MPG, 11.4 PPG, 5.1 APG, 36% FG, 31% 3FG
After a rookie campaign that eventually turned pleasant for Trey Burke, his sophomore season hasn't been pretty. The Utah Jazz floor general is struggling to consistently create offense, and he's also failing to contain opponents on the other end.
Burke's per-minute stats have gone down in the following categories, to name a few: points, rebounds, assists, field-goal percentage and three-point percentage. He's also barely getting to the free-throw line, averaging 1.9 trips to the stripe per 36 minutes.
"Burke came into this season looking much like the promising-yet-flawed rookie the Jazz saw a year ago," said Tim Faklis of the Sporting News. "He has shot the ball well from the left corner so far this year, but has still struggled from the paint throughout his young career."
While his offense is frustrating, his defense is downright discouraging.
Burke is getting outmaneuvered in one-on-one scenarios, and he's also losing his man off the ball too frequently. He's a key contributor to one of the worst defensive units in the league. When he's on the floor, the Jazz are surrendering 117.8 points per 100 possessions.
Can he make the necessary adjustments in each phase in order to climb out of his second-year malaise?
Surprising: K.J. McDaniels, Philadelphia 76ers SF
3 of 10
Age/Experience: 21 years old/rookie
2014-15 Stats: 25.3 MPG, 9.4 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 1.6 BPG, 41% FG, 30% 3FG
The front-runner for our unofficial "Most Surprising Rookie" honors is Philadelphia 76ers forward K.J. McDaniels.
With an upgraded shooting stroke, rim-rocking explosiveness and rangy defensive talent, the former Clemson star has vastly outplayed his second-round draft status.
McDaniels' versatility as a stopper has led to a substantial role on the bottom-feeding Sixers, and he's taken advantage of the minutes to showcase his offensive promise. Sam Vecenie of CBS Sports explains:
"McDaniels is an athletic wing, with some of his defensive value coming from his ability to protect the weakside of the rim at 6-foot-6...He legitimately might be a plus-defender on the wing as a rookie, which is almost as rare as finding a rookie big man who can make a consistent defensive impact...The scoring is mostly due to his role on the hapless Sixers, but his shooting is legitimately improved.
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Outside of 15 feet, the rookie is holding opponents to 32 percent shooting, and he's also averaging 3.0 blocks per 40 minutes. That's a tremendous impact compared to most NBA newbies.
Since he's still developing offensively, it's tough to chart where his ceiling is. But we can certainly tell he'll be a rock-solid role player in the league for years.
Disappointing: Dion Waiters, Cleveland Cavaliers SG
4 of 10
Age/Experience: 23 years old/third season
2014-15 Stats: 23.4 MPG, 10.4 PPG, 2.1 APG, 41% FG, 29% 3FG
Dion Waiters' scoring numbers are down from a year ago, but that's not what's disappointing. It was inevitable that he'd face a smaller role on the new-look Cleveland Cavaliers with LeBron James at the helm.
What are disappointing are his erratic shooting efficiency and decision-making.
He's a third-year pro playing alongside some of the top offensive weapons in the league. He should be converting his opportunities by shooting better than 29 percent from three-point land and not reverting to his hero-ball tendencies.
It was tough to tell how he would fit on this star-studded team, and so far he's proved to be an awkward piece. After a recent win, James diplomatically explained that Waiters might need to tweak his style of play, per Scott Cacciola of The New York Times: "We know Dion’s capable of playing some really good isolation basketball,” James said. “But at the same time, we have to do what’s best for the team. So it’s a fine line."
It might be too early to give up on Waiters, but he's been undeniably vexing for Cavs fans during the 2014 portion of the season.
Surprising: Shabazz Muhammad, Minnesota Timberwolves SG/SF
5 of 10
Age/Experience: 22 years old/second season
2014-15 Stats: 21.7 MPG, 13.3 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 50% FG, 40% 3FG
Building off a worthwhile trip to the D-League in 2013-14 and a strong summer league showing in Vegas, Shabazz Muhammad was due to improve markedly upon his unsightly sophomore season.
But we didn't expect this kind of outburst.
The second-year standout is pouring in 22-plus points per 36 minutes. He improved his three-point shooting from 27 percent to 40 percent. He's getting to the free-throw line much more frequently, and his player efficiency rating is a staggering 20.2. Muhammad's latest handiwork was a 30-point barrage against the Utah Jazz that included 5-of-6 shooting from deep.
For even the most optimistic forecasters, this kind of impact is surprising. Muhammad's playing style is more tenacious than ever, yet he's also more calculated and sharp. He bounced back from his rookie slumber higher and faster than most anticipated.
Rob Mahoney of Sports Illustrated talked about Muhammad making the most of his tools:
"Muhammad is not a particularly explosive athlete by NBA standards, nor of the hyper-skilled variety that sets apart the league's finest. He's a worker. He trained for this opening and, upon seizing it, proved most impressive in the way he fights for loose balls and offensive rebounds with abandon. Hustle in itself makes Muhammad more playable, his weaknesses more tolerable. From it he's finding ways to get to the foul line...
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A year-and-a-half after his No. 14 selection, Muhammad is finally looking the part of a lottery pick and a legitimate weapon. Let's see if he can keep it up during the 2015 portion of Minny's rebuild.
Disappointing: Lance Stephenson, Charlotte Hornets SG/SF
6 of 10
Age/Experience: 24 years old/fourth season
2014-15 Stats: 32.8 MPG, 10.2 PPG, 4.8 APG, 6.8 RPG, 39% FG, 15% 3FG
Even before his pelvic sprain sidelined him, Lance Stephenson was a letdown for the Charlotte Hornets.
So much of a letdown, in fact, that Grantland's Zach Lowe reported the club was looking to potentially deal him beginning in mid-December.
The 2014 free agent's arrival in Buzz City was supposed to bring some offensive juice on the wing. It quickly became apparent that his playing style and nightly impact were a bad fit for this squad. And in many cases, his presence has been counterproductive.
He isn't reliable when it comes to offensive execution and playmaking choices. As he continues to take ill-advised drives or off-balance contested jumpers, it's worth wondering whether he grasps what a "good shot" is.
Stephenson is shooting 35 percent on all pull-up jump shots this season, which wouldn't be a terrible thing if he exercised moderation. But unfortunately, pull-ups are his favorite type of shot, and they make up nearly half of his field-goal attempts.
When he's dialed in, he's an invigorating asset. Those moments have become too scarce, however.
Surprising: Nikola Mirotic, Chicago Bulls F
7 of 10
Age/Experience: 23 years old/rookie
2014-15 Stats: 18.1 MPG, 8.3 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 45% FG, 42% 3FG
When Chicago Bulls fans found out that Nikola Mirotic finally would come stateside to don the red and white, there was a sense of cautious optimism.
He looked like a great prospect, arguably the best in Europe. But how would his skills translate in the short term? Would he even get many minutes under the watchful eye of Tom Thibodeau?
Prior to the season, ESPNChicago.com's Mike Wilbon referred to the Spaniard as "a rookie who has no clue about playing NBA-level defense."
It turns out Mirotic actually has a clue. He's not a sparkling one-on-one stopper, but he's adapted well to Thibs' schemes and executed them. The defensive-minded Bulls are actually more effective when he's on the floor, holding opponents to 103 points per 100 possessions.
And on offense, he's a natural. Mirotic is coolly bombarding opponents from deep, having no trouble adjusting to the NBA arc. He's also driving swiftly into the lane and consistently streamlining Chicago's attack. When it comes to production and efficiency, he has been the most outstanding rookie.
Given his Spanish League pedigree, his early exploits aren't incomprehensible. But he's getting almost 20 minutes per night on a championship-aspiring squad, and he's more than holding his own. His impact is surprising, especially for those who thought he'd see scant time under Thibs' supervision.
Disappointing: Marcus Smart, Boston Celtics PG
8 of 10
Age/Experience: 20 years old/rookie
2014-15 Stats: 18.7 MPG, 5.4 PPG, 2.2 APG, 35% FG, 29% 3FG
It looks like Marcus Smart is the Boston Celtics' starting point guard in the post-Rajon Rondo era. But he hardly looks like starting point guard material thus far.
That's not to say he shouldn't be playing, because the youngster needs the on-court experience to develop. It's just been a turbulent start to his much-anticipated pro career.
Aside from the ankle injury that kept him sidelined for a month, Smart has struggled to consistently commandeer the Celts offense during his 18-plus minutes per game. His distribution skills haven't been particularly impressive, but that's partially because his mid-range and outside shot aren't doing him any favors.
Just take a peek at his shot chart, if you can stomach it.
His erratic shooting and lack of mid-range finesse in college have continued into his NBA rookie campaign, as he can't keep defenses honest and regularly knock down jumpers. Smart is shooting an unattractive 28 percent on all pull-up jumpers.
With an increased role, perhaps 2015 will be kinder to him.
Surprising: Ben McLemore, Sacramento Kings SG
9 of 10
Age/Experience: 21 years old/second season
2014-15 Stats: 33.3 MPG, 12.1 PPG, 3.3 APG, 48% FG, 40% 3FG
Before the season tipped off, many thought Sacramento Kings rookie Nik Stauskas would give Ben McLemore a run for playing time at shooting guard.
McLemore was coming off an underwhelming rookie campaign, and it was unclear whether he could step up and become a key player in Sac-town. He answered the doubters and made it clear who the go-to 2-guard is.
While the explosive wing's point totals aren't impressive, he's clearly making a dynamically positive impact both offensively and defensively. He attributes it to confidence and collaboration.
"Confidence," McLemore told B/R's Sim Risso. "I’ve just continued to believe in my shot and believe in my game. My teammates are doing a good job with that. My coaches have been running early plays for me and getting me going early."
His picturesque shooting stroke finally found its rhythm, as he's connecting on 40 percent of his triples. He's also attacking the rim effectively via slashes and cuts, shooting 60-plus percent on forays close to the bucket.
On defense, McLemore has been highly effective for most stretches. He uses his quickness and ranginess to stay in front of shifty playmakers, and his defensive efforts have significantly influenced Sacramento's bottom line. The Kings give up 5.2 fewer points per 100 possessions when he's on the court.
Bonus Surprise: Robert Covington, Philadelphia 76ers F
10 of 10
Age/Experience: 24 years old/second year
2014-15 Stats: 24.2 MPG, 11.8 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 40% FG, 43% 3FG
After winning 2013-14 D-League Rookie of the Year honors, Robert Covington couldn't make the final cut for the Houston Rockets during the preseason.
The Philadelphia 76ers were fortunate to scoop him up, because he's been able to fill a sizable role and show more promise than most expected. Covington has adapted to the NBA quite well, even if it is on the league's worst roster.
His long-range proficiency (43 percent from beyond the arc) and end-to-end assertiveness have made him almost impossible to bench. Covington knows how to slide into open gaps to find three-point chances, and he also uses defenders' overcompensation against them.
Not only does he attack closeouts well, he also makes timely backdoor cuts away from the ball when his man is guarding him too closely on the perimeter. Those kinds of instincts and execution have helped him earn a starting spot in Philly. In his last 10 games, Covington is seeing 30-plus minutes per game as a critical piece in Brett Brown's attack.
Considering his preseason outlook was quite unclear, Covington has been one of the most satisfying surprises among the league's crop of youngsters.
All statistics gathered from NBA.com, Basketball-Reference.com and 82games.com (accurate as of Dec. 30, 2014).
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