NFL Playoff Scenarios: Analyzing Week 17 Games That'll Decide Postseason Bracket

Entering Week 17 of the NFL season, 10 of the 12 playoff spots have been accounted for. The only slots left are the NFC South division championship and the second wild-card spot in the AFC. There is also the matter of seeding to be settled, though that's not as dramatic as clinching your spot. 

Fortunately the NFL has taken precautions to make sure the final weekend of the year provides more drama than an Aaron Sorkin show. All of the games are divisional matchups, which should make for plenty of close battles given how familiar teams are with their most common opponents. 

Whether the schedule lives up to that hype remains to be seen. Until kickoff on Sunday, here is a look at the playoff picture and the games that will decide the final races left to be settled. 

Week 17 AFC Scenarios

Broncos clinch first-round bye with:

1. Denver win vs. Oakland OR
2. Denver tie vs. Oakland plus Cincinnati loss or tie vs. Pittsburgh OR
3. Cincinnati loss OR
4. Cincinnati tie plus Indianapolis win vs. Tennessee

Bengals clinch AFC North with:

1. Cincinnati win vs. Pittsburgh

Bengals clinch first-round bye with:

1. Cincinnati win plus Denver loss or tie OR
2. Cincinnati tie plus losses by both Denver and Indianapolis

Steelers clinch AFC North with:

1. Pittsburgh win vs. Cincinnati

Chargers clinch playoff spot with:

1. San Diego win vs. Kansas City OR
2. San Diego tie plus Baltimore loss or tie vs. Cleveland

Ravens clinch playoff spot with:

1. Baltimore win plus San Diego loss or tie OR
2. Baltimore tie plus San Diego loss

Chiefs clinch playoff spot with:

1. Kansas City win plus loss by Baltimore plus loss or tie by Houston

Texans clinch playoff spot with:

1. Houston win plus losses by both Baltimore and San Diego

Week 17 NFC Scenarios

Cowboys clinch home-field advantage throughout NFC with:

1. Dallas win plus loss or tie by Arizona vs. San Francisco plus Detroit vs. Green Bay tie OR
2. Dallas win plus win by Seattle vs. St. Louis plus Detroit vs. Green Bay tie

Cowboys clinch first-round bye with:

1. Dallas win plus loss or tie by both Seattle and Arizona OR
2. Dallas win plus Detroit vs. Green Bay tie OR
3. Seattle and Arizona both lose OR
4. Dallas and Seattle both tie plus Arizona loses or ties plus Detroit vs. Green Bay does not end in a tie

Lions clinch NFC North with:

1. Lions win or tie

Lions clinch home-field advantage throughout NFC playoffs with:

1. Lions win plus Seattle loss or tie plus Arizona loss or tie OR
2. Detroit tie plus losses by both Seattle and Arizona plus Dallas loses or ties

Lions clinch first-round bye with:

1. Detroit win OR
2. Detroit tie plus Dallas loss or tie OR
3. Detroit tie plus both Arizona and Seattle lose

Packers clinch NFC North and first-round bye with:

1. Green Bay win

Packers clinch home-field advantage throughout NFC playoffs with:

1. Green Bay win plus loss or tie by Seattle

Seahawks clinch NFC West with:

1. Seattle win OR
2. Seattle tie plus loss or tie by Arizona OR
3. Arizona loss

Seahawks clinch home-field advantage throughout NFC playoffs with:

1. Seattle win plus Detroit vs. Green Bay does not end in tie OR
2. Seattle win plus Dallas loss or tie OR
3. Seattle tie plus losses or ties by both Arizona and Dallas plus Detroit vs. Green Bay tie

Seahawks clinch first-round bye with:

1. Seattle win OR
2. Seattle tie plus Arizona loss or tie plus Dallas loss OR
3. Seattle tie plus Arizona loss or tie plus Detroit vs. Green Bay tie

Cardinals clinch NFC West with:

1. Arizona win plus Seattle loss or tie OR
2. Arizona tie plus Seattle loss

Cardinals clinch home-field advantage throughout NFC playoffs with:

1. Arizona win plus Seattle and Green Bay both lose or tie OR
2. Arizona tie plus Seattle loss plus Dallas loss or tie plus Detroit vs. Green Bay tie

Cardinals clinch first-round bye with:

1. Arizona win plus Seattle loss or tie OR
2. Arizona tie plus Seattle loss plus Dallas loss or tie OR
3. Arizona tie plus Seattle loss plus Detroit vs. Green Bay tie

Panthers clinch NFC South with:

1. Carolina win or tie vs. Atlanta

Falcons clinch NFC South with:

1. Atlanta win

San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs

No team on the edge of playoff contention benefited more in Week 16 than the Chargers. Not only did they pull off a 21-point comeback against the San Francisco 49ers on Saturday, but the Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City lost the next day.

As a result, the Chargers are in control of their destiny in the AFC wild-card race. Despite the big win, San Diego is hobbling right now. Philip Rivers has endured multiple injuries to his ribs and back, via NFL Network's Ian Rapoport:

Despite those limitations, the Chargers are in the perfect spot to secure their second consecutive trip to the postseason. Rivers hasn't shown signs of being bothered by his physical limitations, being named AFC Offensive Player of the Week with 356 yards and four touchdowns, via NFL on ESPN:

When you combine Rivers' talent with the Chargers' resurgent running game—bolstered by the return of Ryan Mathews going against a Kansas City defense that allows 125 yards per game on the ground—there's not enough offensive firepower for Andy Reid's bunch to keep up with. 

The Chiefs have been sliding recently because Reid seems to forget that letting Jamaal Charles touch the ball is a good thing, as this stat from Patrick Daugherty of NBC Sports suggests:

If Charles isn't getting touches, that means Alex Smith is having to win games for the Chiefs. According to ESPN.com's QBR metric, Smith has had a rating below average (under 50) in five of the last seven games. 

The Chargers have struggled against the top teams in the league this season, going 1-5 against teams with 10 or more wins, but are 8-1 against everyone else. The lone loss was against Kansas City in Week 7, so this can be called the ultimate revenge game. 

Chargers 31, Chiefs 27

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers

The battle for the NFC North looks like a heavyweight fight on paper. The Lions are second in total defense and scoring defense. The Packers are second in scoring offense and sixth in total offense. 

When these two teams first met at Ford Field in Week 3, Detroit's defense overpowered Green Bay's offense in a 19-7 win. It was a few days after the defeat that Aaron Rodgers did his radio show and told everyone to R-E-L-A-X.

In 12 games since that loss, Rodgers has thrown for 3,458 yards, 31 touchdowns and four interceptions. The Packers have been unstoppable at home this season, owning a 7-0 record with 288 points along the way. 

One big change since Green Bay's early-season struggles is the running game. As great as Rodgers has been, the turnaround can be traced to Eddie Lacy. The second-year running back has been on fire, as this stat from Gil Brandt of NFL.com shows:

Detroit's run defense is the best in the NFL, but it's middle of the pack when it comes to stopping the pass. Rodgers' ability to throw will open up holes on the defensive line because the Lions have to respect the air game. 

Another problem for the Lions in this spot is their offense has been bad. It has scored 20 points or less in four of its last six games, including last week against a Chicago Bears defense that's allowed the most points in the NFL. 

Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk noted on Twitter that Jimmy Clausen was outperforming Matthew Stafford:

That can't happen again, as the Packers will make Stafford pay if he throws two interceptions without a touchdown like he did in Week 16. 

When you have an erratic offense going into hostile territory against one of the most prolific quarterbacks and underrated running backs in the league, something bad is going to happen. The Lions have done everything asked of them this season, but it still won't be enough to win the division. 

Packers 34, Lions 17

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons

Bob Leverone/Associated Press

The latest round of which team wants to win a terrible division features the Carolina Panthers and Atlanta Falcons fighting over the NFC South. The Panthers have been outscored by 66 points this season, fourth-worst in the NFC, yet have a playoff spot within their grasp. 

The Falcons have the inside edge because they are playing at home and are 5-0 against the NFC South this season. Matt Ryan has the correct mindset going into Sunday's game against Carolina, telling The Associated Press style points don't matter, via FoxSports.com:

"

It doesn't matter how you get there - you just have to get in. We have a game at home and for us, if you win, you're in. Obviously this year has shaken out a lot different than any other year I've been a part of in our division. But even saying that, it doesn't matter. We are where we are, and we're excited about our chances.

"

None of the stats looks good to support either team as a playoff contender, though the Panthers have gotten better as the season has moved along. The results prove that with three straight wins and 40 points allowed during this stretch. 

It should come as no surprise that Carolina's turnaround came when Jonathan Stewart got the running game going. He's run for over 100 yards in two of the last three games and is averaging 5.6 yards per carry over the last four games. 

According to ESPN's David Newton, Stewart has been the NFL's most prolific rusher since November 30:

The Falcons are a terrible defensive team, though they've been more adept at stopping the run than pass. That will play a huge role in Week 17, but Atlanta wins with its offense. The good news is Julio Jones' oblique continues to get better, via Vaughn McClure of ESPN.com:

Jones has been a problem for most teams to stop this season, though Carolina did hold him to 59 yards on six catches in the first meeting. The star receiver had 107 yards against the New Orleans Saints after sitting out the previous week. 

The Panthers are trending in the right direction and have a recent history of shutting down Atlanta's best player. Someone has to win the division, so it might as well be the team playing the best football. 

Panthers 24, Falcons 21