NFL Standings 2014-15: Predictions for Teams on the Bubble

If you are an NFC fan, the question of which six teams are getting into the playoffs is clear cut, and the final spot comes down to one game. That’s not the case if you are an AFC supporter.

Few things in regular-season sports are more dramatic than the final week of the NFL season when postseason spots are up for grabs. Teams not only have to control their own games, they often have to do some scoreboard watching during timeouts.

Here is a look at the postseason scenarios entering Week 17, courtesy of the NFL's official press release, before digging into a more detailed discussion about the bubble teams.

AFC Playoff Scenarios

Broncos clinch first-round bye with:

1. Denver win vs. Oakland OR
2. Denver tie vs. Oakland + Cincinnati loss or tie vs. Pittsburgh OR
3. Cincinnati loss OR
4. Cincinnati tie + Indianapolis win vs. Tennessee

Bengals clinch AFC North with:

1. Cincinnati win vs. Pittsburgh

Bengals clinch first-round bye with:

1. Cincinnati win + Denver loss or tie OR
2. Cincinnati tie + losses by both Denver and Indianapolis

Steelers clinch AFC North with:

1. Pittsburgh win vs. Cincinnati

Chargers clinch playoff spot with:

1. San Diego win vs. Kansas City OR
2. San Diego tie + Baltimore loss or tie vs. Cleveland

Ravens clinch playoff spot with:

1. Baltimore win + San Diego loss or tie OR
2. Baltimore tie + San Diego loss

Chiefs clinch playoff spot with:

1. Kansas City win + loss by Baltimore + loss or tie by Houston

Texans clinch playoff spot with:

1. Houston win + losses by both Baltimore and San Diego

NFC Playoff Scenarios 

Cowboys clinch home-field advantage throughout NFC with:

1. Dallas win + loss or tie by Arizona vs. San Francisco + Detroit vs. Green Bay tie OR
2. Dallas win + win by Seattle vs. St. Louis + Detroit vs. Green Bay tie

Cowboys clinch first-round bye with:

1. Dallas win + loss or tie by both Seattle and Arizona OR
2. Dallas win + Detroit vs. Green Bay tie OR
3. Seattle and Arizona both lose OR
4. Dallas and Seattle both tie + Arizona loses or ties + Detroit vs. Green Bay does not end in a tie

Lions clinch NFC North with:

1. Lions win or tie

Lions clinch home-field advantage throughout NFC playoffs with:

1. Lions win + Seattle loss or tie + Arizona loss or tie OR
2. Detroit tie + losses by both Seattle and Arizona + Dallas loses or ties

Lions clinch first-round bye with:

1. Detroit win OR
2. Detroit tie + Dallas loss or tie OR
3. Detroit tie + both Arizona and Seattle lose

Packers clinch NFC North and first-round bye with:

1. Green Bay win

Packers clinch home-field advantage throughout NFC playoffs with:

1. Green Bay win + loss or tie by Seattle

Seahawks clinch NFC West with:

1. Seattle win OR
2. Seattle tie + loss or tie by Arizona OR
3. Arizona loss

Seahawks clinch home-field advantage throughout NFC playoffs with:

1. Seattle win + Detroit vs. Green Bay does not end in tie OR
2. Seattle win + Dallas loss or tie OR
3. Seattle tie + losses or ties by both Arizona and Dallas + Detroit vs. Green Bay tie

Seahawks clinch first-round bye with:

1. Seattle win OR
2. Seattle tie + Arizona loss or tie + Dallas loss OR
3. Seattle tie + Arizona loss or tie + Detroit vs. Green Bay tie

Cardinals clinch NFC West with:

1. Arizona win + Seattle loss or tie OR
2. Arizona tie + Seattle loss

Cardinals clinch home-field advantage throughout NFC playoffs with:

1. Arizona win + Seattle and Green Bay both lose or tie OR
2. Arizona tie + Seattle loss + Dallas loss or tie + Detroit vs. Green Bay tie

Cardinals clinch first-round bye with:

1. Arizona win + Seattle loss or tie OR
2. Arizona tie + Seattle loss + Dallas loss or tie OR
3. Arizona tie + Seattle loss + Detroit vs. Green Bay tie

Panthers clinch NFC South with:

1. Carolina win or tie vs. Atlanta

Falcons clinch NFC South with:

1. Atlanta wins

Is your head still on straight? If so, let's take a look at the teams that are still on the bubble for the postseason.

NFC Bubble

Rogelio Solis/Associated Press

Win and you’re in is about as simple of a scenario as a team can hope for in the final week of the season, but winning has been anything but simple for the entire NFC South.

The 6-8-1 Carolina Panthers and 6-9 Atlanta Falcons will face off Sunday for the division crown. There is only one more bubble spot up for grabs in the NFC playoff picture, and Sunday’s winner will seize it and a home game in the Wild Card Round.

Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan didn’t seem to care about the losing records, according to The Associated Press, via Fox Sports:

"

It doesn't matter how you get there - you just have to get in. We have a game at home and for us, if you win, you're in. Obviously this year has shaken out a lot different than any other year I've been a part of in our division. But even saying that, it doesn't matter. We are where we are, and we're excited about our chances.

"

The Panthers are actually 14-3 in December under Ron Rivera since 2011 and may be hitting their stride with Cam Newton and Jonathan Stewart back together again in the backfield.

Stewart has 437 rushing yards in the last four weeks, which is best in the NFL during that stretch. He gives the Panthers offense a much-needed rushing dynamic after he and DeAngelo Williams both missed time earlier this year.

However, the Falcons are fifth in the league in passing yards and will likely look to attack Carolina through the air with Julio Jones and Roddy White. While Jones has 1,535 receiving yards and is one of the best receivers in the league, White finished with 75 receiving yards and a touchdown in Atlanta’s win in Carolina earlier this season.

White gives the attack more of an underneath threat, which could open Jones up for a deep ball late in the game.

The Falcons already beat the Panthers once this year in Carolina and will defend home field by attacking early and often with the pass. Ryan threw for 322 yards in a Week 16 win over the New Orleans Saints to set this win-and-in game up, and he has one of the best one-two punches in the league at receiver.

The Falcons will make the playoffs.

AFC Bubble

Ezra Shaw/Getty Images

The New England Patriots, Denver Broncos, Pittsburgh Steelers, Cincinnati Bengals and Indianapolis Colts have all clinched a playoff spot, although seeding and the AFC North crown are still up for grabs.

As for that final bubble spot, it comes down to the San Diego Chargers, Baltimore Ravens, Houston Texans and Kansas City Chiefs.

The Chargers are fortunate enough to control their own destiny and only need a win over the Chiefs to get into the playoffs. The Ravens would sneak in with a win over Cleveland and a San Diego loss.

Scott Halleran/Getty Images

It gets a bit muddier after that for the Chiefs and the Texans, with multiple things needing to happen, as you can see above. The best way to attack the AFC bubble picture is by breaking it down with game-by-game predictions.

The Ravens are going to beat the Cleveland Browns at home. Cleveland seems to be in a tailspin the past couple of weeks after such an impressive start to the season, and the Ravens already beat the Browns once this year in Cleveland. The Browns have a combined 13 points the past two weeks and do not look like a team ready to play spoiler in Week 17. 

That is especially the case because Connor Shaw could be starting at quarterback, although ESPN’s Mike Greenberg seems to think that may not be as much of a concern as some would assume:

Speaking of teams with perilous quarterback situations, the Houston Texans will also win in Week 17, because they are home against the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars.

Houston may be unsettled at quarterback (and possibly turning to newly signed Case Keenum), but JJ Watt and a defense that has allowed only 15.5 points per game in the last six will do enough to beat the Jaguars. Jacksonville has not won away from home this season, and it certainly isn’t going to change that pattern against a team playing with postseason desperation.

That leaves the Chargers and Chiefs, who play each other in Kansas City, where the Chiefs are 5-2 and count wins over the Patriots and Seahawks.

Philip Rivers is dealing with a bulging disk in his back, which will make going up against that Kansas City defense and crowd all the more difficult. What’s more, the Chiefs already beat the Chargers once this year in San Diego.

This is a different Kansas City team, though.

Justin K. Aller/Getty Images

The Chiefs have lost four of five games, which is why their once-promising playoff outlook has become an exercise in scoreboard watching, and the only win in that stretch came against the Oakland Raiders.

Teams are stacking the box in an effort to stop Jamaal Charles and the running game, and it is working. San Diego will undoubtedly follow script.

Alex Smith and the Kansas City aerial attack are 28th in the league in passing yards per game, and the San Diego secondary, which is sixth in the league against the pass, will be the difference in this one. 

That means all the drama and “what-ifs” will be sucked out of the AFC playoff race as San Diego’s season lives on.

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