Lions vs. Packers: Breaking Down Detroit's Game Plan

The NFC North is on the line when the Detroit Lions head to Green Bay to face the Packers.

What: Detroit Lions (11-4) at Green Bay Packers (11-4)

When: Sunday, December 28, 4:25 p.m. ET

Watch: Fox, Joe Buck and Troy Aikman with the call

The Lions have won the last two meetings, completely dominating Green Bay's normally potent offense in the process.

	Rush Yards	Pass Yards	1st Downs	Total Plays	Off. Points
Week 13, 2013	24	102	7	42	3
Week 3, 2014	76	147	14	51	7

Alas, both of those games were in Detroit. History says playing in Green Bay turns the Lions into a different kind of animal. And that leads to the first key to Detroit's game plan.

Be the Predator, not the Prey

One of the keys for success in those games has been Detroit's relentless aggression with the defensive-front foursome. Ndamukong Suh and his linemates have consistently dominated the line of scrimmage in those two meetings. 

Being able to stop Eddie Lacy and the Packers running backs with just four facilitates dropping more Lions into coverage. 

Another side benefit of being able to handle the run and rush Rodgers with just four is that it takes away the threat of play-action fakes. That's where Rodgers is at his most dangerous. Witness this vintage display on NFL.com of Green Bay's downfield attack.

Here's a play from the first meeting, when Detroit's defense easily nullified Green Bay's play-action intention.

NFL Game Rewind

Notice where the linebacker and safety (both circled) are initially aligned. The Packers are trying to lure them forward with a play-action fake to create space down the field.

But Detroit isn't buying what Rodgers is selling here; neither Lion moves forward more than a yard before they correctly ascertain it's a pass play. 

NFL Game Rewind

Because they didn't react to the potential run, both defenders are in the way for potential passing options as Rodgers rolls out to avoid the rush. Safety Isa Abdul-Quddus is simultaneously undercutting the outside receiver as well as cutting off the crossing route. 

NFL Game Rewind

Linebacker DeAndre Levy has eliminated the cross, too. The safety over the top prevents Rodgers from letting it fly deep. In short, Rodgers has no appealing options because of Detroit's defensive discipline. He throws the ball innocuously out of bounds toward the deeper receiver. 

It's the attention to detail and mastery of the basic fundamentals that helped shut down the vaunted Packers attack in September. Fortunately, it appears defensive coordinator Teryl Austin and the Lions understand the root of the success:

"

Teryl Austin on gameplan vs GB: "What we’re going to try to do is keep those same principles we had the 1st game" stop run, no long passes

— Dave Birkett (@davebirkett) December 24, 2014"

Dictating the action with the front four is the key to it all. Don't fall prey to what Rodgers and the Green Bay offense want them to do. Instead, force the Packers to scramble and scurry.

Ignore the Past

By now, I'm sure you've heard the dubious Detroit history in this series. The Lions have not won in the state of Wisconsin since Jason Hanson was a junior at Washington State. Since Brett Favre was an Atlanta Falcon. Since the Soviet Union was still a reality. 

Coach Jim Caldwell needs to get his team to put all the inglorious history out of mind. None of that matters to these Lions against these Packers. 

While much of the focus is on whether these are the Same Old Lions, perhaps more attention needs to go to the fact these aren't exactly the same old mighty Packers either. In particular, Green Bay's offense has really struggled against strong defenses. 

As Jamie Samuelsen notes in the Detroit Free Press: 

"

The Seahawks, Lions and Bills have three of the top four defenses in the NFL through 16 weeks. Rodgers has played against all three. In those games, the Packers are 0-3 and Rodgers is a combined 56 for 102 for 532 yards with two touchdowns and three picks. He may be the best quarterback in football and the 2014 MVP. But put him up against a good to great defense, and he'll have a hard time just like anyone else.

"

All those ugly losses and two decades of disappointment and humiliation mean nothing. This is the best Lions team since 1991, the first one to hit the 11-win mark since that year.

This Detroit defense will finish the season in the top two or three overall in points allowed, a feat not accomplished since the Reagan administration. 

Help the Rookie Offensive Linemen

Thanks to an unfortunate injury to LaAdrian Waddle and a deserved one-game suspension for Dominic Raiola, Detroit will start rookies at right tackle and center.

Big Cornelius Lucas will be making his third start on the season and his second in a row at right tackle. He's been surprisingly adept for an undrafted rookie, allowing just one sack and two quarterback hits in his starts per Pro Football Focus (subscription required). 

Duane Burleson/Associated Press

He's graded out positively at PFF in both games, though this Green Bay defense is quite different than what Chicago showed him in the two other starts.

Clay Matthews and the blitz-happy Packers front are a challenge for even experienced linemen. Green Bay has been deploying Matthews both inside and on the edge. He must be accounted for on every snap.

Matthews is coming off of a 2.5-sack game against Tampa Bay and was named to the Pro Bowl this week. He also garnered honors for his dominating play versus the Buccaneers:

"

#Packers LB Clay Matthews has been named NFC Defensive Player of the Week for Week 16: http://t.co/rzCx0a3Y6I pic.twitter.com/tWA8ksJk7J

— Green Bay Packers (@packers) December 24, 2014"

Lucas has been good at preventing edge-rushers from getting around him, but he can struggle when quicker ends duck and dart inside. Nobody does that better than Matthews. The running backs will need to be sharp in pass protection to help out the giant rookie.

Inside, the situation could be a bigger problem. Travis Swanson will make his first start at center. He made four starts at right guard for an injured Larry Warford, and the results were a mixed bag.

"

FWIW, rookie Travis Swanson improved in his four starts at RG. He'd get the start at center, his natural position, if Raiola is suspended.

— Josh Katzenstein (@jkatzenstein) December 22, 2014"

Katzenstein is correct in his assessment. Swanson got more comfortable with the speed of the game, notably in pass protection.

His run-blocking was more problematic—a noticeable decline from Warford's excellence in that facet. The PFF grades look worse than Swanson actually appeared on the field, but there's no question he created little movement. 

Bob Leverone/Associated Press

At center, Swanson's primary job will be to keep Matthew Stafford's legs clean from an inside rush, as well as providing room for the quarterback to step forward as he launches the ball down the field.

It will be hard to help the third-rounder from Arkansas, as left guard Rob Sims is already a significant liability in pass protection. 

The easiest way to help both rookies would be to establish the run early. Detroit is coming off its best rushing campaign of the year against Chicago with 138 yards. Both Reggie Bush and Joique Bell topped five yards per carry and showed determination and vision.

Green Bay ranks 20th in yards per carry allowed, though they have been improving lately as noted by TeamRankings.com. The team held the Lions to just 3.0 yards per carry in the first meeting, though Detroit ran the ball 39 times in an effort to run out the clock to help water down the figure. 

Slamming the ball right at the Green Bay defense with quick-hitting runs and decisive authority from the backs can help settle down the young linemen. It also establishes the run to keep Matthews and the other linebackers from focusing solely on rushing Stafford. 

Hopefully, the center-quarterback exchange goes smoothly. During my several visits to training camp, Swanson's snapping was a major problem. In one practice alone, he botched four of them. 

On that front, Wednesday's practice is encouraging.

"

Joe Lombardi says Travis Swanson was error free today in snap exchanges with Matthew Stafford

— Kyle Meinke (@kmeinke) December 24, 2014"

Raiola is coming off of one of the worst games by any lineman all season; his PFF grade of minus-7.0 pushed his season mark below undrafted rookies Jonotthan Harrison and James Stone. Swanson doesn't have to be great in Raiola's stead as long as he can effectively snap the ball.

It's not going to be easy. Green Bay has serious confidence at home against Detroit and rightly so. The team's playoff experience can only help it in this battle for a bye and the No. 2 seed in the NFC.

The Lions need to play up to their opponent's level instead of playing down, as they have in recent games against Minnesota and Chicago. 

If Detroit can avoid turnovers and play to its potential, it can absolutely come up victorious. It will not be easy, but the reward would be sweet.