Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans: Complete Week 17 Preview for Houston
It all comes down to this.
The offseason workouts, training camp, the preseason and the 15 earlier regular-season games have all led up to this one moment: The Houston Texans will need to win their final game of the year in order to give themselves a chance to return to the postseason for the first time since 2012.
Unfortunately, the Texans don't control their own fate, as they'll also need the Kansas City Chiefs to defeat the San Diego Chargers and the Cleveland Browns to pull off an upset against the Baltimore Ravens while the Texans try to defeat the Jacksonville Jaguars for the second time this season.
While nothing in the NFL is a lock, two of those three requirements seem fairly probable—Houston and Kansas City are both favored to win, according to Odds Shark—but hoping for a miracle win by the Browns will likely leave all Texans fans in disappointment.
Like the Texans, the Browns have had to dig deep inside their storage shed to find a quarterback healthy enough to play this week. Regardless of whether or not they start veteran journeyman Tyler Thigpen or undrafted rookie Connor Shaw, winning at Baltimore will extremely difficult.
Cleveland nearly—arguably should have—defeated Baltimore in the teams' first meeting back in September, but Ravens kicker Justin Tucker nailed a field goal at the end of regulation to secure a two-point win for his team.
That was then and this is now, and I'm not going to bet the farm on the Browns' chances of pulling off the upset while playing their third starter at quarterback.
Regardless of what happens on Sunday, avoiding a losing season just one year after winning only two games—especially considering all their injuries and poor play at the quarterback position—makes 2014 a successful season for the Texans; job well done by Bill O'Brien and his staff.
Houston Texans Week 16 Recap
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If the offensive players didn't all pitch in and buy the defensive and special teams players a steak dinner, they should have: Those two units put the team on their shoulders and carried the Texans to victory against Baltimore.
The offense wasn't a complete joke against the Ravens like it had been previously against Indianapolis and Cincinnati, but it certainly doesn't deserve much credit for the win either.
Not only did the Texans defense smother the Ravens offense with a wet blanket, but it also gift-wrapped tremendous field position for the offense on several occasions; guess the defense got into the holiday season a little early.
The Texans started three possessions inside the red zone before they even took a snap and only needed two first downs on those three possessions to put up 13 points. Without the defense setting up the offense on drives like that, those 13 points may have never been scored, and the Texans might not have won.
Overall the Texans were only 1-of-7 inside the red zone and had to settle for six field-goal attempts, so there's no question which side of the ball won the game.
As low as the expectations were for Case Keenum, his numbers were pretty ugly still.
"Keenum vs. the Ravens 1st Down 112 yards 10/17 (58.%) 2nd Down 26 yards 5/13 (38.5%) 3rd Down 47 yards 5/12 (41.7%) #Texans
— PDS (@PatDStat) December 23, 2014"
Keenum's final stat line saw him finish with 20 of 42 pass attempts completed for 185 yards, no touchdowns, one interception and a 50.2 quarterback rating.
His completion percentage and quarterback rating against Baltimore was the worst and second-worst of his career, respectively, over the nine games he's played.
Due to the incredibly tough situation he was thrown into, I won't kill him for those numbers, but he'll need to produce more to win on a consistent basis; he can't count on your defense and special teams delivering at the level they did against Baltimore very often.
From last season to last week, Keenum did seem to improve on the speed in which he was making his decisions and wasn't guilty of holding on to the ball too long very often, but he still struggled with making the correct read on a consistent basis.
"Keenum throws to (CJF), Grimes (Blue) is wide open. #Texans https://t.co/lbjbV8Mqw1
— PDS (@PatDStat) December 25, 2014"
"Another one Keenum will want back. Hits Dre, but Griff wide open in the post. #Texans https://t.co/u8IUJhnpSq
— PDS (@PatDStat) December 25, 2014"
One nice thing about the offense was the willingness of Bill O'Brien to mix up his play-calling and try some new looks, which included the Wildcat formation. That's not something the Texans can go back to very often, but had they tried to run a traditional and predictable offense the results against Baltimore would likely have been poor.
The Ravens were likely expecting the Texans to come out and lean heavily on the zone-stretch running scheme. Instead, the Texans let Keenum throw out of spread looks—which works to his strengths—and ran some Wildcat, which kept the Ravens guessing.
That strategy might not have been successful with most running backs, but the vision and patience of Arian Foster is special and what continues to set him apart.
"Foster patiently waiting. #Texans https://t.co/4u9wgKUnaH
— PDS (@PatDStat) December 25, 2014"
The sample size is obviously very small, but the Texans defense over their last two games has looked better than it has at any time since the 2011 season.
Baltimore was ranked inside the top 10 in both points scored and yards gained coming into the game, but Houston held the Ravens to 211 total yards and 13 points; both marks are Baltimore's worst of the season.
The Texans were aggressive early with the blitz, hit Joe Flacco and seemed to rattle him, as his throwing mechanics became erratic, which caused his accuracy to be wild. J.J. Watt and Jared Crick combined to sack Flacco twice and hit him six other times to lead the way in disrupting the offense.
Watt is good enough to make plays by himself, but the way Romeo Crennel used stunts with him and Crick was a thing of beauty.
A stunt can free up either player, but using the attention that Watt draws with double- and even triple-teams against the opponent, taking blockers one direction and allowing the other guy to exploit the hole created, was brilliant.
"RAC drawing up stunts to get Watt one-on-one with RB. Runs through RB for the hit. #Texans https://t.co/DycwrKTmSs
— PDS (@PatDStat) December 25, 2014 "
"Crick and Watt running the T-E stunt. Crick gets the sack. #Texans https://t.co/t3XSbfbIga
— PDS (@PatDStat) December 25, 2014"
The Texans' defensive backs also played with effective aggression (to borrow a boxing term,) as they seemed to be sitting on certain routes and tendencies and jumped them whenever they had a chance.
"Kareem on OD. Keeps his eyes on Flacco the entire time, jumps the route for the INT. #Texans https://t.co/aKLYZkuML1
— PDS (@PatDStat) December 25, 2014"
Both Shane Lechler and Randy Bullock did a tremendous job this week as well, with Bullock setting a franchise record for field goals made in a single game with six against Baltimore.
Bullock has made 30 of his 35 attempts for the season with a field-goal percentage of 85.7, both career bests. The 30 field-goal attempts made by Bullock rank third in the league behind those of only Dan Carpenter and Stephen Gostkowski, who have made 33 and 32, respectively.
"Randy Bullock was named the AFC special teams player of the week for his franchise record six field goal game. #Texans
— Tania Ganguli (@taniaganguli) December 24, 2014"
His kicks haven't all been easy chip shots, either: Bullock has gone 11-for-13 this season on attempts over 40 yards. It's good that the team didn't give up on him after his awful start during the first half of last season, because he's really turned into a plus player at the position.
Likewise, Lechler has been a plus player at his position this season and was again last week against the Ravens. Lechler averaged 45.1 yards per punt with a long of 54 and three punts downed inside the 20-yard line.
He could have easily had two more downed inside the 20, but the punt coverage unit wasn't able to make a play on a couple occasions, and the ball bounced over the white line. For the season, Lechler ranks inside the top 10 in yards per punt and longest punt.
Special teams players are often overlooked or ignored unless they make a bad play that costs their teams a game, but luckily for Houston they haven't had to worry about that this season. Lechler and Bullock have been one of the best and most reliable combos in the entire league.
News and Notes
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Arian Foster and J.J. Watt Named to the Pro Bowl Roster
These were no-brainers for Foster and Watt, as both players not only deserve to be on the roster but also deserve to be starters.
"J.J. Watt, Arian Foster named to Pro Bowl
— Brian T. Smith (@ChronBrianSmith) December 24, 2014"
Foster ranks inside the top five in rushing yards, top three in yards per attempt among fellow running backs and inside the top 10 for rushing touchdowns, despite having missed three games and being limited in another; he had only eight carries against Buffalo.
Foster has also set a new career high for receiving touchdowns with four and is arguably having the second-best season of his career.
Of course, you all know by now how much Watt has dominated the NFL this season.
"J.J. Watt total pressures (QB sack + QB hurries + QB hits) 2011- 52 2012- 83 2013- 85 2014- 111 (One game remaining) #Texans
— PDS (@PatDStat) December 22, 2014"
"Total Pass Rush Pressures 1. Watt (111) 2. Justin Houston (79) 3. Von Miller (68) 4. Michael Bennett (67) 5. 3 Tied at 66. #Texans
— PDS (@PatDStat) December 22, 2014"
Watt ranks second in sacks, first in tackles for loss, first among defensive lineman in passes defended and has scored five touchdowns.
Chris Myers, Duane Brown and DeAndre Hopkins were all named alternates and have a pretty good chance of eventually getting on the roster if the normal trend of starter dropouts continues this year.
Andre Johnson Surpasses 1,000 Receptions
Johnson hasn't had the type of season he or the fans have become accustomed to, but he strengthened his Hall of Fame resume against Baltimore.
"Andre Johnson has 1,000 career catches. Second fastest in NFL history to reach mark.
— Brian T. Smith (@ChronBrianSmith) December 21, 2014"
Johnson is only 100 receptions behind Marvin Harrison for third place on that all-time list and 1,829 yards behind Randy Moss on the all-time list for receiving yards with one game left this season.
Even at the pace he's set this year, which is low by comparison with the rest of his career, he'll rank inside the top three all-time for both stats within two seasons.
He should a lock for the Hall of Fame.
Injury Report
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| Xavier Su'a-Filo | Back | Questionable |
| Brandon Brooks | Ankle | Questionable |
| Mike Mohamed | Concussion | Questionable |
| DeVier Posey | Calf | Questionable |
| Tom Savage | Knee | Questionable |
| Garrett Graham | Ankle | Questionable |
Source: Pro-Football-Reference.com
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
X-Factor and Matchups to Watch
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Different Style of Running Attack
With Denard Robinson's season over due to a foot injury, the rushing attack for the Jaguars will be different from what the Texans saw during their first meeting.
Robinson is super-athletic and has great agility in the open field, while his replacement, Toby Gerhart, is more of a traditional, straightforward power back. Gerhart won't make many defenders miss or rip off many long gains, but he's capable of picking up the tough yardage and won't often lose ground by dancing laterally.
Last week against Tennessee, Gerhart finished with a per-carry average over four yards with 53 yards and a touchdown on 12 carries. Gerhart is a capable back, but this will be a more favorable matchup for the Texans.
With Robinson's athletic ability and versatility, scheming to stop him is completely different. Against Robinson, teams have to practice how to stop the Wildcat, reverse plays, quick screens, halfback pass attempts and a whole lot more.
Gerhart's game doesn't offer that same level of versatility, so stopping or at least slowing him down should be easier.
X-Factor of the Week: Safety D.J. Swearinger
The second-year safety has become the quarterback of the defense and is often responsible for getting his teammates lined up in the right position.
"Swearinger lining up the defense. Did this all game. #Texans https://t.co/Z3RYdKPU8k
— PDS (@PatDStat) December 25, 2014"
With his role as signal-caller, cover guy and extra helper against the run, depending on the situation, few other Texans are asked to wear as many hats as Swearinger. That responsibility seemed to weigh on him early, but he's starting to respond to it and make plays again.
"Swearinger again. Finding OD and tipping the ball. #Texans https://t.co/rKyOzvIlIC
— PDS (@PatDStat) December 25, 2014"
He has to be able to cover a tight end or a back in space, fill gaps and shed blocks against the run and know the job of every player on every play to get teammates lined up; that's a lot of pressure. The performance of Swearinger will continue to be crucial not only this week but for years to come.
Prediction
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No matter which way you want to look at it, the Houston Texans are just a much better football team than the Jacksonville Jaguars.
What the Houston offense will be able to do against the Jaguars defense, whether led by Case Keenum or any other healthy quarterback on their roster, is up for debate. But the Texans defense should completely shut down Jacksonville.
Over the previous two weeks the Texans have shut down the fifth- and eighth-ranked offenses in terms of points scored in Indianapolis and Baltimore. Unfortunately, their great defensive performance wasn't enough to overcome an anemic offense against the Colts.
On a previous page I broke down their numbers against the Ravens, but shutting down Andrew Luck the week before might have been even more impressive.
Houston held the Colts to their lowest points and total yards of the season to that point, while also picking off Luck for a touchdown and holding him to his second-worst completion percentage and third-worst passing yards total of the season.
If the Texans can shut down Andrew Luck and Joe Flacco—who was having the best season of his career—then they can certainly do the same against Blake Bortles.
In their previous meeting back on December 7, the Texans held Bortles to 20-of-39 passing for 205 yards, one touchdown, one interception and a 64.6 quarterback rating.
Hopefully the Texans offense will do better than their 1-for-7 mark in the red zone last week against Baltimore or the 289 total yards they put up—their second-lowest total of the season—against Indianapolis the week before. But even if they don't, their defense, led by J.J. Watt, can pick up the slack.
The Jaguars are one of the few franchises against which the Texans have been successful over their relatively short time in the league. Houston has gone 14-11 against Jacksonville overall and had won five in a row before losing both games during the disastrous 2013 season.
The only other team they've played more successfully—even though they've played fewer times and have fewer wins—is the Miami Dolphins, against whom the Texans have gone 7-0 over their 13 years as a franchise.
Prediction: Texans 24, Jaguars 13
Thanks to @PatDStat for the Vine film breakdowns. Make sure to give him a follow!
Follow me on Twitter for more analysis of the Texans and live tweets during games: @sackedbybmac
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